Brisk Wind Advisory 10, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
342 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
00Z MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AGAIN AGAINST THE 00Z ANALYSIS AS WELL
AS VERIFYING WELL AGAINST THE 06Z ANALYSIS. MODEL SPREAD CONTINUES
TO BE ACCEPTABLE IN THE SHORT TERM AND MID TERM...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ARISE BETWEEN MODEL TRACK AND EVOLUTION IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE.

ALOFT...THE BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA
CONTINUES TO REALIGN FROM A NORTH SOUTH AXIS TO A NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST AXIS OVER NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA...THE YUKON AND
ALASKA AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA TAKES ON A SIMILAR TILT. THE BLOCKED PATTERN REMAINS
INTACT INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE RIDGE EXTENDING
NORTHWARD TO THE POLE.

OVER NORTHERN ALASKA...SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES NORTHWEST OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA. WITH
LESS CLOUD COVER OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING NEAR THE SURFACE...STRONG INVERSIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN AND REMAIN STRONG IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL REMAIN DRY WHILE THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND
WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.

STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
WILL SET UP CONDITIONS FOR A TANANA VALLEY JET THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR DELTA JUNCTION AND WEST ALONG THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS OF THE
ALASKA RANGE AND TANANA VALLEY FLATS TO THE SOUTH OF FAIRBANKS.
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN
DELTA JUNCTION AND ALONG THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS AND THROUGH THE
PASSES OF THE ALASKA RANGE WEST OF THE TOK CUTOFF THIS EVENING.
FAVORABLE SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE WILL
PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE
WESTERN ALASKA RANGE TODAY AND TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE YUKON VALLEY NEAR EAGLE TODAY
AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH FAVORABLE SOUTHEAST GRADIENT.

RADAR AND SATELLITE REVEALING NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
NORTHWEST INTO THE LOWER YK DELTA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE MIXED PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WITH RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN MIXING AT TIMES WITH THE SNOW SOUTH OF A KOTZEBUE TO GALENA
LINE. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 4 INCHES IS EXPECTED WITH THE
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NULATO HILLS. ONLY TRACE ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. WARM TEMPERATURES AND RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO LIMIT BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG THE WEST COAST.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ226-AKZ227.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CCC JAN 16