Gale Warning 4, NWS Fairbanks, AK

835 
FZAK51 PAFG 051249
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
349 AM AKST TUE JAN 5 2016

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-060400-
349 AM AKST TUE JAN 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED ABOUT 500 NM NORTH OF DEMARCATION POINT
WILL BUILD TO 1036 MB HIGH AND EXTEND FROM 85N/115W TO 70N/115W BY
LATE TUE NIGHT. A TROUGH WILL PERSIST ALONG OR NEAR THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST THROUGH WED MORNING.

$$

PKZ225-060400-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
349 AM AKST TUE JAN 5 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.WED...S WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ230-060400-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
349 AM AKST TUE JAN 5 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY AFTERNOON. 
BLOWING SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.WED...S WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU...SW WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ235-060400-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
349 AM AKST TUE JAN 5 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU...SW WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

PKZ240-060400-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
349 AM AKST TUE JAN 5 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.WED...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. BLOWING SNOW. 
.THU...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ245-060400-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
349 AM AKST TUE JAN 5 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. BLOWING SNOW.
.WED...SE WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU...NW WINDS 15 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT.  

$$

CF/DA JAN 16

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
110 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS WITH A
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE...AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SEVERAL STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE
BERING SEA. MODERATELY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT TIMES
IN WIND PRONE AREAS NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE.

UPPER AIR...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE CHUKCHI
SEA SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY AND INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA. ALL MODELS INDICATING THE RIDGE WILL BECOME
REORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH POLE SOUTHWARD TO THE YUKON
TERRITORY AND NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH AN UPPER
HIGH CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL DAMPEN OUT WHILE MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA
COASTAL REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA MAINLAND BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PARTS OF NORTHERN ALASKA IN A ZONE OF SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BUILDING RIDGE MOVING NORTHWARD TO EXTEND
FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA TO THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY BY THURSDAY
MORNING.

SURFACE...
A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES NORTH OF DEMARCATION
POINT WILL BUILD INTO AN ELONGATED 1036 MB HIGH STRETCHING FROM
85N/115W TO 75N/115W BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
WILL PERSIST ALONG OR NEAR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AN ELONGATED 970 MB LOW MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE WESTERN
ALASKA PENINSULA WILL SPLIT INTO TWO CENTERS THIS AFTERNOON...THE
ORIGINAL 970 MB CENTER WILL MOVE TO NEAR COLD BAY WITH A NEW 972
MB LOW DEVELOPING ABOUT 75 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND.
NAM/CANADIAN/ECMWF MODELS TAKE THE CENTER TO THE NORTHERN GULF
OF ANADYR BY TUESDAY EVENING...GFS PUTS THE CENTER NEAR CAPE
NAVARIN. GFS/NAM/CANADIAN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
ABOUT 974 MB AT THIS TIME. THE ORIGINAL 970 MB LOW CENTER IS
PROGGED TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND TO THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL REGION BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

ALL MODELS INDICATING A STRONG STORM DEEPENING TO 945-950 MB NEAR
52N/173W BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS POSITION WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL POSITION A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH. THE STORM IS PROGGED TO MAINTAIN MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 945-950 MB THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...THEN
START FILLING AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD. MODEL SPREAD IN
POSITIONS INCREASES SOME BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...GFS/ECMWF ARE
CLOSEST TOGETHER WITH AN AVERAGE POSITION NEAR 64N/174.5E AND
CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB BY 00Z FRIDAY.

OVER THE ALASKA RANGE...MODERATELY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUING OVER
AREAS NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE IN THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY ZONE
THROUGH TUESDAY AND A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUING OVER AREAS ALONG
THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY IN THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR ZONE 226 WILL LIKELY BE A MINIMAL
EVENT...WITH ONLY ISOLATED GUSTS TO 50 MPH EXPECTED AT THE
WINDIEST SITES. THE TANANA VALLEY JET HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED
IN ZONE 223...WITH WINDS CURRENTLY GUSTING TO AS HIGH AS AROUND 45
MPH IN AREAS NEAR DELTA JUNCTION. WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED IN AREAS NEAR DELTA JUNCTION THROUGH TONIGHT.

OVER THE WEST COAST AREAS AND NEARBY WESTERN INTERIOR AREAS...SURFACE
REPORTS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION WITH THE CURRENT OCCLUDED FRONT
STRETCHING NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD IS MAINLY SCATTERED. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND 1000-850 MB LAYER MEAN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE MAINLY NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE LIKELY TO BE SNOW OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW.
MAINLY SCATTERED AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ALONG AND NEAR THE WEST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

OVER THE BERING STRAIT COAST AND ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...2
TO 4 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITY AT TIMES
ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND.

THE STRONG STORM EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING
SEA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING EASTERLY GALES TO ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH STORM FORCE WINDS
LIKELY OVER AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF ST LAWRENCE ISLAND.
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE ISLAND...WITH NO MORE THAN A CHANCE OF SNOW
EXPECTED ON THE ISLAND.

LITTLE OR NO SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE ARCTIC SLOPE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. OPERATIONAL MODEL SOLUTIONS BECOME
QUITE DIVERGENT SO CONFIDENCE ON TRACK AND TIMING OF ANY LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT MIGHT AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA IS LOW. THE
CURRENT NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN TEMPERATURE ANOMALY FORECAST INDICATES
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING MORE THAN 12 DEGREES CELSIUS ABOVE NORMAL
FOR ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA OUT THROUGH DAY 7. FOR DAYS 7 TO
14...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO AVERAGE FROM 3 TO MORE THAN 6
DEGREES CELSIUS ABOVE NORMAL OVER NORTHERN ALASKA. FOR DAYS
1-7...CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL
ON THE WEST COAST...NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE ARCTIC SLOPE...AND NEAR
OR BELOW NORMAL IN THE INTERIOR. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER
FORECAST FOR DAYS 6-10 AND DAYS 8-14 INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR ALMOST ALL
OF NORTHERN ALASKA.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ226-AKZ227.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ213.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

RF JAN 16