Small Craft Advisory 97, NWS Anchorage, AK

044 
FZAK52 PAFC 300011
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 29 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-301300-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 974 MB LOW 150 NM EAST OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE SOUTH AND DISSIPATE
LATE TONIGHT. A 976 MB LOW 200 NM SOUTH OF ADAK WILL MOVE TO 50 NM
NORTHEAST OF ADAK BY SAT AFTERNOON AND DEEPEN TO 966 MB. THIS LOW
WILL THEN MOVE TO 250 NM WEST OF SAINT PAUL AT 960 MB SUN
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-301300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 29 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

$$

PKZ155-301300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 29 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN WITH
SNOW.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ160-301300-
BRISTOL BAY-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 29 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-301300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 29 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT EXCEPT SE 35 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ170-301300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 29 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT E OF DUTCH HARBOR. SEAS
12 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ171-301300-
UNALASKA BAY-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 29 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3
FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-301300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 29 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ173-301300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 29 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ174-301300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 29 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ175-301300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 29 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ176-301300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 29 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 45 KT...EXCEPT N 35 KT W OF ATKA. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ177-301300-
ADAK TO KISKA-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 29 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ178-301300-
KISKA TO ATTU-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 29 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY FROM SHEMYA W.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ179-301300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 29 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ180-301300-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 29 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ181-301300-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 29 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ185-301300-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
311 PM AKST FRI JAN 29 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N AND W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E 45 KT W
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY N AND W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

794 
FZAK52 PAFC 301242
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
342 AM AKST SAT JAN 30 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-310200-
342 AM AKST SAT JAN 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 971 MB LOW 50 NM SOUTH OF ADAK WILL MOVE NORTH TO 300 NM NORTH
OF ADAK AT 961 MB SUN MORNING THEN TO 500 NM NORTH OF AMCHITKA
ISLAND AT 964 MB LATE SUN NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY AND ACROSS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SUN.

$$

PKZ150-310200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
342 AM AKST SAT JAN 30 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 45 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

$$

PKZ155-310200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
342 AM AKST SAT JAN 30 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT EXCEPT 24 FT FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ160-310200-
BRISTOL BAY-
342 AM AKST SAT JAN 30 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-310200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
342 AM AKST SAT JAN 30 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
PORT MOLLER E...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING
TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ170-310200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
342 AM AKST SAT JAN 30 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ171-310200-
UNALASKA BAY-
342 AM AKST SAT JAN 30 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-310200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
342 AM AKST SAT JAN 30 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ173-310200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
342 AM AKST SAT JAN 30 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ174-310200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
342 AM AKST SAT JAN 30 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ175-310200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
342 AM AKST SAT JAN 30 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ176-310200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
342 AM AKST SAT JAN 30 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S TO W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ177-310200-
ADAK TO KISKA-
342 AM AKST SAT JAN 30 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ178-310200-
KISKA TO ATTU-
342 AM AKST SAT JAN 30 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ179-310200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
342 AM AKST SAT JAN 30 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ180-310200-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
342 AM AKST SAT JAN 30 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ181-310200-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
342 AM AKST SAT JAN 30 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT.

$$

PKZ185-310200-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
342 AM AKST SAT JAN 30 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E 45 KT W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 18 FT.
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
449 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW PRESSURE ALOFT THAT HAS BEEN CONTROLLING
WEATHER OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA IS DEAMPLIFYING AND PUSHING INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON. THE CIRCULATION WAS VISIBLE ON RADAR THIS MORNING
IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...BUT APPEARS TO BE RAPIDLY FALLING APART
AS IT MOVES INLAND. THE TROUGH IS BRINGING RAIN TO THE NORTH GULF
COAST...AND THE RADAR HAS FILLED IN NICELY AROUND THE COOK INLET
REGION NOW THAT DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS WANED. TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL HAVE RESIDED BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA MOVED
INTO PRICE WILLIAM SOUND PRECIPITATION BEGAN OVERSPREADING THE
REGION AS DOWNSLOPING CEASED. THE 00Z PANC RAOB SHOWED A VERY
POTENT WARM NOSE EXTENDING TO 3600 FT...WHICH WOULD HAVE FAVORED
RAIN (POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN) AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE. HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT THE WARM NOSE WAS ENHANCED BY
DOWNSLOPING INSTEAD OF A DEEP WARMER AIR MASS. THIS ENDED UP
LEADING TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DURING IN THE AFTERNOON AS
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION HELPED DRAG DOWN SOME COOLER AIR AND ALLOW A
WET BULB EFFECT TO OCCUR.

ON THE LARGE SCALE...THE CONTROLLING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
STILL SPINS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THE JET STREAM REMAINS
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES LIE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
LOW PRESSURE BUT THESE WAVES ARE NOTHING MAJOR.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE ISSUES IN THE VERY SHORT TERM REVOLVE AROUND HOW LONG
PRECIPITATION LASTS AND WHAT TYPE IT WILL TAKE. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST STAYING MOSTLY RAIN UNTIL THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW...HOWEVER INTENSE BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE TURNING PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW IN AREAS
ALREADY. GENERALLY MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION
TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT...OR SLIGHTLY LATER.

FURTHER OUT WEST GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING TO HANDLE DEVELOPMENT OF A
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE WESTERN/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE A FEW DIFFERENT CIRCULATIONS
DEVELOPING WITHING THE BROAD SCALE LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA HAS BECOME QUITE THE
CHALLENGE WITH THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WET BULB
POTENTIAL LATE THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BUT THE 00Z
SOUNDING SHOWS THE WET BULB ZERO ONLY AT 1100 FT. THIS MEANS THAT
A LARGE PORTION OF THE ANCHORAGE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE MORE RAIN
THAN SNOW WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE OVER EAST ANCHORAGE AND THE EAGLE RIVER AREA
AS WELL AS THE MATANUSKA AND SUSITNA VALLEYS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN MAINLY ALL SNOW THROUGH THE MATANUSKA AND SUSITNA VALLEYS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PALMER WHICH SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE KENAI
PENINSULA IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE AS A DEEP
MOIST AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. THIS FOG IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE ANCHORAGE AREA AFTER THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF LATE
THIS EVENING.

COME FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE PACIFIC WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF BENIGN
WEATHER BACK TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN A GOOD BIT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL STAY IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO FRIDAY AS AN EASTERN BERING LOW PUSHES NORTH.
ON FRIDAY A NEW SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC APPROACHES THE
ALEUTIANS AND ITS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM
IS PULLING UP WARM AIR THAT WILL TRANSITION MUCH OF THE SNOW OVER
TO RAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE MAIN AREA OF IMPACT THIS EVENING IS OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
AND EAST TOWARDS THE ALASKA PENINSULA. WITH AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND A STRONG VORTICITY MAX BEING PUSHED THROUGH FROM
THE EASTERN BERING LOW...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EXISTS OVER THE
AREA INTO THE NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH BY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE AREA INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVING TOWARDS THE ALEUTIANS WILL
PUSH ITS FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS FRIDAY MORNING AND THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BRING WARMER
AIR TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING CHANGING OVER
MUCH OF THE SNOW TO RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL BERING SATURDAY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST WHILE BROADENING
AND WEAKENING THROUGH MONDAY OR TUESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE BERING TO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...WITH MID-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE NEAR KAMCHATKA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN MAINLAND. THIS KIND OF ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS WHERE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
PERSISTS...WHILE UNDERNEATH THE MID-LEVEL HIGH...PLACES SUCH AS
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND SHELTERED VALLEYS INLAND WILL SEE THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES AND DRIEST CONDITIONS.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN MAINLAND MAY
BREAK DOWN A BIT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
NORTH TOWARD THE BRISTOL BAY AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION. THIS MAY
ALLOW A BIT MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TO RETURN TO MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 150 155 170 172 173 174 175 176 177 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MTL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...CC