Gale Warning 22, NWS Anchorage, AK

888 
FZAK62 PAFC 300009
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
309 PM AKST FRI JAN 29 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-301500-
309 PM AKST FRI JAN 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 974 MB LOW AT 53N 178E WILL MOVE SOUTH AND DISSIPATE LATE
TONIGHT. A 976 MB LOW AT 49N 179W WILL MOVE TO 52N 175W BY SAT
AFTERNOON AND DEEPEN TO 966 MB. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO 57N
177W AT 960 MB SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-301500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
309 PM AKST FRI JAN 29 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 58N.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING N 25 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ412-301500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
309 PM AKST FRI JAN 29 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO 20 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY W OF 177W.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY W OF 178W.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 20 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 20 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ413-301500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
309 PM AKST FRI JAN 29 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING E 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT...EXCEPT N 25 TO 35 KT W OF 178W.
SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ414-301500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
309 PM AKST FRI JAN 29 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

191 
FZAK62 PAFC 301237
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
337 AM AKST SAT JAN 30 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-310300-
337 AM AKST SAT JAN 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 971 MB LOW AT 51N 176W WILL MOVE NORTH TO 56N 177W AT 961 MB
SUN MORNING THEN TO 60N 178E AT 964 MB LATE SUN NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS TODAY AND ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SUN.

$$

PKZ411-310300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
337 AM AKST SAT JAN 30 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN
THE MORNING.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ412-310300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
337 AM AKST SAT JAN 30 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N TO E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 13 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ413-310300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
337 AM AKST SAT JAN 30 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E OF 175W...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT...BECOMING S IN THE
AFTERNOON. W OF 175W...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT...BECOMING N IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E OF 175W...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. W OF 175W...NW WIND
25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...S TO W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ414-310300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
337 AM AKST SAT JAN 30 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

810 
FZAK62 PAFC 302355
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
255 PM AKST SAT JAN 30 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-311515-
255 PM AKST SAT JAN 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 967 MB LOW AT 53N 175W WILL MOVE TO 57N 177W AT 961 MB SUN
MORNING THEN TO 61N 173E AT 975 MB MON MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-311515-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
255 PM AKST SAT JAN 30 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY
S OF 57N.
.MON...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ412-311515-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
255 PM AKST SAT JAN 30 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE TO SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ413-311515-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
255 PM AKST SAT JAN 30 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E OF 175W...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. W OF 175W...NW WIND
25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ414-311515-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
255 PM AKST SAT JAN 30 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

044 
FZAK62 PAFC 311226
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
326 AM AKST SUN JAN 31 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-010245-
326 AM AKST SUN JAN 31 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 963 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR AT 56N 178W MOVES TO 61N 176E AT 972 MB
EARLY MON BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER EASTERN RUSSIA. A 990 MB LOW
NEAR 51N 156W MOVES TO 58N 162W LATE SUN AT 984 MB AND DISSIPATES.

$$

PKZ411-010245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
326 AM AKST SUN JAN 31 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ412-010245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
326 AM AKST SUN JAN 31 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ413-010245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
326 AM AKST SUN JAN 31 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 15 TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-010245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
326 AM AKST SUN JAN 31 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

666 
FZAK62 PAFC 010003
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
303 PM AKST SUN JAN 31 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-011515-
303 PM AKST SUN JAN 31 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 965 MB LOW NEAR 58N 179E WILL MOVE TO 60N 172E AT 980 MB MON
AFTERNOON. A 984 MB LOW NEAR 56N 160W WILL DISSIPATE NEAR 60N
166W TONIGHT. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 50N 153W AT
956 MB TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-011515-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
303 PM AKST SUN JAN 31 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND UP TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ412-011515-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
303 PM AKST SUN JAN 31 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY W OF 177W.
.MON...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ413-011515-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
303 PM AKST SUN JAN 31 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 15 TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF 177W.
.MON...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.TUE...S WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-011515-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
303 PM AKST SUN JAN 31 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
449 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW PRESSURE ALOFT THAT HAS BEEN CONTROLLING
WEATHER OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA IS DEAMPLIFYING AND PUSHING INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON. THE CIRCULATION WAS VISIBLE ON RADAR THIS MORNING
IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...BUT APPEARS TO BE RAPIDLY FALLING APART
AS IT MOVES INLAND. THE TROUGH IS BRINGING RAIN TO THE NORTH GULF
COAST...AND THE RADAR HAS FILLED IN NICELY AROUND THE COOK INLET
REGION NOW THAT DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS WANED. TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL HAVE RESIDED BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA MOVED
INTO PRICE WILLIAM SOUND PRECIPITATION BEGAN OVERSPREADING THE
REGION AS DOWNSLOPING CEASED. THE 00Z PANC RAOB SHOWED A VERY
POTENT WARM NOSE EXTENDING TO 3600 FT...WHICH WOULD HAVE FAVORED
RAIN (POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN) AS THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE. HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT THE WARM NOSE WAS ENHANCED BY
DOWNSLOPING INSTEAD OF A DEEP WARMER AIR MASS. THIS ENDED UP
LEADING TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW DURING IN THE AFTERNOON AS
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION HELPED DRAG DOWN SOME COOLER AIR AND ALLOW A
WET BULB EFFECT TO OCCUR.

ON THE LARGE SCALE...THE CONTROLLING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
STILL SPINS OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THE JET STREAM REMAINS
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
SEVERAL EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES LIE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
LOW PRESSURE BUT THESE WAVES ARE NOTHING MAJOR.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE ISSUES IN THE VERY SHORT TERM REVOLVE AROUND HOW LONG
PRECIPITATION LASTS AND WHAT TYPE IT WILL TAKE. LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST STAYING MOSTLY RAIN UNTIL THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW...HOWEVER INTENSE BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE TURNING PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW IN AREAS
ALREADY. GENERALLY MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION
TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT...OR SLIGHTLY LATER.

FURTHER OUT WEST GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING TO HANDLE DEVELOPMENT OF A
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE WESTERN/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...THERE LOOKS TO BE A FEW DIFFERENT CIRCULATIONS
DEVELOPING WITHING THE BROAD SCALE LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA HAS BECOME QUITE THE
CHALLENGE WITH THE FORECAST PACKAGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WET BULB
POTENTIAL LATE THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE BUT THE 00Z
SOUNDING SHOWS THE WET BULB ZERO ONLY AT 1100 FT. THIS MEANS THAT
A LARGE PORTION OF THE ANCHORAGE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE MORE RAIN
THAN SNOW WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE OVER EAST ANCHORAGE AND THE EAGLE RIVER AREA
AS WELL AS THE MATANUSKA AND SUSITNA VALLEYS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN MAINLY ALL SNOW THROUGH THE MATANUSKA AND SUSITNA VALLEYS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PALMER WHICH SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE KENAI
PENINSULA IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE AS A DEEP
MOIST AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. THIS FOG IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE ANCHORAGE AREA AFTER THE PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF LATE
THIS EVENING.

COME FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE PACIFIC WHICH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF BENIGN
WEATHER BACK TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN A GOOD BIT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL STAY IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO FRIDAY AS AN EASTERN BERING LOW PUSHES NORTH.
ON FRIDAY A NEW SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC APPROACHES THE
ALEUTIANS AND ITS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM
IS PULLING UP WARM AIR THAT WILL TRANSITION MUCH OF THE SNOW OVER
TO RAIN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE MAIN AREA OF IMPACT THIS EVENING IS OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
AND EAST TOWARDS THE ALASKA PENINSULA. WITH AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND A STRONG VORTICITY MAX BEING PUSHED THROUGH FROM
THE EASTERN BERING LOW...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL EXISTS OVER THE
AREA INTO THE NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH BY FRIDAY
MORNING AND THEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE AREA INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVING TOWARDS THE ALEUTIANS WILL
PUSH ITS FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS FRIDAY MORNING AND THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL BRING WARMER
AIR TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING CHANGING OVER
MUCH OF THE SNOW TO RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL BERING SATURDAY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST WHILE BROADENING
AND WEAKENING THROUGH MONDAY OR TUESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING.
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE BERING TO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...WITH MID-LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE NEAR KAMCHATKA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN MAINLAND. THIS KIND OF ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR
WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS WHERE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
PERSISTS...WHILE UNDERNEATH THE MID-LEVEL HIGH...PLACES SUCH AS
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND SHELTERED VALLEYS INLAND WILL SEE THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES AND DRIEST CONDITIONS.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN MAINLAND MAY
BREAK DOWN A BIT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEAKENS AS IT MOVES
NORTH TOWARD THE BRISTOL BAY AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION. THIS MAY
ALLOW A BIT MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TO RETURN TO MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 150 155 170 172 173 174 175 176 177 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MTL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...CC