Small Craft Advisory 93, NWS Anchorage, AK

122 
FZAK51 PAFC 281236 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
336 AM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

CORRECTED 120

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-290200-
336 AM AKST THU JAN 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 967 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTH OF CORDOVA WILL WEAKEN TO 970 MB AS IT
TRACKS NORTHWEST TO THE KENAI PENINSULA TODAY THEN DISSIPATES AS
IT MOVES NORTH AND INLAND OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF FRI AND FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-290200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
336 AM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ120-290200-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
336 AM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ121-290200-
RESURRECTION BAY-
336 AM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ125-290200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
336 AM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. 
GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE THIS MORNING. 
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-290200-
PORT VALDEZ-
336 AM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-290200-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
336 AM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-290200-
VALDEZ ARM-
336 AM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-290200-
PASSAGE CANAL-
336 AM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-290200-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
336 AM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ131-290200-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
336 AM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NW 20 KT BECOMING W 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ132-290200-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
336 AM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ136-290200-
CHINIAK BAY-
336 AM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ137-290200-
MARMOT BAY-
336 AM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ138-290200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
336 AM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ139-290200-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
336 AM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-290200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
336 AM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO
3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-290200-
KACHEMAK BAY-
336 AM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

757 
FZAK51 PAFC 290031
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
331 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-291330-
331 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 976 MB LOW IN WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF FRI AND FRI NIGHT AND REMAIN
THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-291330-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
331 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.

$$

PKZ120-291330-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
331 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.

$$

PKZ121-291330-
RESURRECTION BAY-
331 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. 
SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ125-291330-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
331 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ126-291330-
PORT VALDEZ-
331 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-291330-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
331 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 20 KT.
SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-291330-
VALDEZ ARM-
331 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-291330-
PASSAGE CANAL-
331 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-291330-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
331 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ131-291330-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
331 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.

$$

PKZ132-291330-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
331 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.

$$

PKZ136-291330-
CHINIAK BAY-
331 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ137-291330-
MARMOT BAY-
331 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ138-291330-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
331 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ139-291330-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
331 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ140-291330-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
331 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
3 FT. RAIN. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ141-291330-
KACHEMAK BAY-
331 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
455 PM AKST WED JAN 27 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURES TWO CLOSED CENTERS OF LOW
PRESSURE...ONE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING/ALEUTIANS...AND ANOTHER
SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. THE LATTER IS THE MORE DYNAMIC OF THE TWO
WITH MULTIPLE CENTERS AND A CONNECTION TO THE MID LATITUDES FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL JET. THAT SYSTEM HAS HELPED BUILD RIDGING OVER
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND KEEPS THE CURRENT STORM TRACK FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMING
THROUGH THE FLOW TOWARD THE NORTH GULF COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM THIS MORNING HAS MOVED ASHORE AND WEAKENED...HELPING TO RELAX
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE REGION. BEHIND THE
FRONT...ANOTHER SHOWERY REGIME IS SETTLING IN WITH WEAKLY STABLE
AIR AND NO BIG FRONTAL FEATURES TO SPEAK OF.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
ON THE LARGER SYNOPTIC SCALE...GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WITH THE MAJOR FEATURES. THE MOST DISCREPANCY AMONG THE MODELS IS
HOW THEY DEVELOP A DEFORMATION BAND AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE WITHIN
THE KODIAK UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES TOWARD THE KENAI PENINSULA. THE
PLACEMENT OF THE BAND HAS NOT YET BEEN AGREED UPON BUT SHOULD BE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN ILIAMNA/KODIAK/HOMER. THE RESPONSIBLE SHORTWAVE
DEAMPLIFIES RATHER QUICKLY AS IT MOVES INLAND AND SHOULD TAKE THE
DEFORMATION BAND WITH IT. THE OTHER MAJOR FEATURE MODELS ARE
KEYING IN ON FOR TOMORROW EVENING IS COLD ADVECTION COMING UP COOK
INLET WHICH COULD GIVE THE AREA SOME LIGHT SNOW IF SURFACE
TEMPERATURES CAN RESPOND QUICK ENOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
GULF THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE STALLED OUT FRONT OVER THE COAST
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THESE SHOWERS WILL BRIEFLY TRANSITION BACK
TO A MORE STEADY RAINFALL AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GULF AND EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE
SWITCHING BACK TO MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY EVENING.
WINDS ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS TODAY...WITH THE GUSTY WINDS MAINLY ALONG COOK INLET AND
THE MATANUSKA VALLEY PERSISTING INTO THE LATER PART OF TONIGHT.

ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE CHUGACH AND KENAI RANGES...INITIAL
GUIDANCE POINTED TOWARD A FAIRLY DOWNSLOPED REGIME TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...CURRENT GUIDANCE COUPLED WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS HAVE RAISED FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN MORE PRECIPITATION
MAKING IT OVER THE RANGES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY AND THE PASSAGE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE...AREAS AROUND ANCHORAGE/THE MATANUSKA VALLEY/
WESTERN KENAI WILL EXPERIENCE MAINLY RAIN DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING...WITH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FOR
THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE MOSTLY AS RAIN DURING THE
DAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW BY THE EVENING...WITH VERY LITTLE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO PUSH THROUGH THE
BRISTOL BAY AREA FROM A LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. EVEN
THOUGH THE MAIN LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GULF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
AND WEAK SURFACE LOWS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST SPREADING
SNOW TO AREAS AROUND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND VALLEY. THE SHOWERS
WILL TAPER DOWN THURSDAY BUT LAST INTO FRIDAY WITH THE ONLY AREAS
BEING WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN AROUND BRISTOL BAY. ON THURSDAY A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL
TRANSITION THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS
WITH AREAS AROUND THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND EAST WARM ENOUGH TO
MIX WITH RAIN. THIS SHOWERY REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BUT
AS A NEW LOW APPROACHES THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC MORE STEADY PRECIPITATION AND STRONGER WINDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INCREASED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA
PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. AS THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING MOVES
EAST IT WILL BRING COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A STRONG VORTICITY MAX
OVER THE AREA. WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND DYNAMIC LIFT
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

ANCHOR LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH JET
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR TRIPLE POINT
LOWS TO FORM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND THEN MOVE NORTH AND WEST
THROUGH THE BERING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A POWERFUL YET
COMPACT TRIPLE POINT LOW TO FORM SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND CROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN BETWEEN ATKA AND DUTCH
HARBOR SATURDAY. GIVEN THE SIZE OF THIS FEATURE...NO POPULATED
AREAS MAY SEE MORE THAN STORM FORCE GUSTS...BUT FOR MARINE AREAS
BETWEEN THESE TWO LOCATIONS A SMALL CORE OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS FEATURE WEAKENS
ALMOST AS QUICK AS IT INTENSIFIES BUT MOVES SWIFTLY NORTH AND WEST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS IT BROADENS AND BECOMES THE PRIMARY CENTER OF
ACTION BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

TOWARD THE GULF AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND...MODELS ARE IN
ASTONISHINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHARP HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF ALASKA THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR WEAKENING WINDS OUTSIDE OF SOME WESTERLY GAP WINDS TO
IMPACT THE WHITTIER AREA AS A WEAK GRADIENT ESTABLISHES ITSELF
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. TOWARD KODIAK WEST
INTO THE EASTERN BERING...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ESTABLISH
ITSELF AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE
NORTH AND WEST ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND
WILL BE ON THE WARM AND WET SIDE OF THINGS. PLACES UNDER THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT (SUCH AS GLENNALLEN AND PAXSON) WILL BE
CLEAR...COLD...AND DRY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE ANCHORAGE WILL
BE CAUGHT RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TWO WITH JUST SOMEWHAT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS FROM THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 150 155 172 173 174 175 176 177 181 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MTL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...CC