Gale Warning 105, NWS Anchorage, AK

047 
FZAK52 PAFC 290003
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
303 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-291300-
303 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 971 MB SURFACE LOW 30 NM SOUTHEAST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND WILL MOVE
TO 100 NM NORTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND AT 984 MB FRI AFTERNOON THEN
WILL DISSIPATE. A 981 MB LOW 160 NM SOUTHWEST OF KISKA WILL TRACK
EAST AND DEVELOP INTO A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...THEN
SHIFT TO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-291300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
303 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF
CHIRIKOF ISLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.

$$

PKZ155-291300-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
303 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ160-291300-
BRISTOL BAY-
303 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ165-291300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
303 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ170-291300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
303 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ171-291300-
UNALASKA BAY-
303 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-291300-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
303 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ173-291300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
303 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ174-291300-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
303 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14
FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ175-291300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
303 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
SNOW.
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ176-291300-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
303 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ177-291300-
ADAK TO KISKA-
303 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. BERING
SIDE...SEAS 10 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT.
SNOW.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ178-291300-
KISKA TO ATTU-
303 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS
11 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ179-291300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
303 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ180-291300-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
303 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ181-291300-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
303 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SNOW.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 25 KT.

$$

PKZ185-291300-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
303 PM AKST THU JAN 28 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT 20 KT FROM SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND
E. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
455 PM AKST WED JAN 27 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURES TWO CLOSED CENTERS OF LOW
PRESSURE...ONE OVER THE CENTRAL BERING/ALEUTIANS...AND ANOTHER
SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. THE LATTER IS THE MORE DYNAMIC OF THE TWO
WITH MULTIPLE CENTERS AND A CONNECTION TO THE MID LATITUDES FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL JET. THAT SYSTEM HAS HELPED BUILD RIDGING OVER
WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND KEEPS THE CURRENT STORM TRACK FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMING
THROUGH THE FLOW TOWARD THE NORTH GULF COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM THIS MORNING HAS MOVED ASHORE AND WEAKENED...HELPING TO RELAX
THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE REGION. BEHIND THE
FRONT...ANOTHER SHOWERY REGIME IS SETTLING IN WITH WEAKLY STABLE
AIR AND NO BIG FRONTAL FEATURES TO SPEAK OF.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
ON THE LARGER SYNOPTIC SCALE...GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT
WITH THE MAJOR FEATURES. THE MOST DISCREPANCY AMONG THE MODELS IS
HOW THEY DEVELOP A DEFORMATION BAND AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE WITHIN
THE KODIAK UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES TOWARD THE KENAI PENINSULA. THE
PLACEMENT OF THE BAND HAS NOT YET BEEN AGREED UPON BUT SHOULD BE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN ILIAMNA/KODIAK/HOMER. THE RESPONSIBLE SHORTWAVE
DEAMPLIFIES RATHER QUICKLY AS IT MOVES INLAND AND SHOULD TAKE THE
DEFORMATION BAND WITH IT. THE OTHER MAJOR FEATURE MODELS ARE
KEYING IN ON FOR TOMORROW EVENING IS COLD ADVECTION COMING UP COOK
INLET WHICH COULD GIVE THE AREA SOME LIGHT SNOW IF SURFACE
TEMPERATURES CAN RESPOND QUICK ENOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
GULF THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE STALLED OUT FRONT OVER THE COAST
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THESE SHOWERS WILL BRIEFLY TRANSITION BACK
TO A MORE STEADY RAINFALL AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN
GULF AND EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE
SWITCHING BACK TO MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY EVENING.
WINDS ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS TODAY...WITH THE GUSTY WINDS MAINLY ALONG COOK INLET AND
THE MATANUSKA VALLEY PERSISTING INTO THE LATER PART OF TONIGHT.

ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE CHUGACH AND KENAI RANGES...INITIAL
GUIDANCE POINTED TOWARD A FAIRLY DOWNSLOPED REGIME TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...CURRENT GUIDANCE COUPLED WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS HAVE RAISED FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN MORE PRECIPITATION
MAKING IT OVER THE RANGES FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY AND THE PASSAGE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE...AREAS AROUND ANCHORAGE/THE MATANUSKA VALLEY/
WESTERN KENAI WILL EXPERIENCE MAINLY RAIN DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING...WITH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ALONG HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FOR
THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE MOSTLY AS RAIN DURING THE
DAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO SNOW BY THE EVENING...WITH VERY LITTLE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO PUSH THROUGH THE
BRISTOL BAY AREA FROM A LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. EVEN
THOUGH THE MAIN LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE GULF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
AND WEAK SURFACE LOWS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST SPREADING
SNOW TO AREAS AROUND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND VALLEY. THE SHOWERS
WILL TAPER DOWN THURSDAY BUT LAST INTO FRIDAY WITH THE ONLY AREAS
BEING WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN AROUND BRISTOL BAY. ON THURSDAY A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST WHICH WILL
TRANSITION THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS
WITH AREAS AROUND THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND EAST WARM ENOUGH TO
MIX WITH RAIN. THIS SHOWERY REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BUT
AS A NEW LOW APPROACHES THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC MORE STEADY PRECIPITATION AND STRONGER WINDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INCREASED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA
PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. AS THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING MOVES
EAST IT WILL BRING COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A STRONG VORTICITY MAX
OVER THE AREA. WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND DYNAMIC LIFT
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

ANCHOR LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH JET
ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR TRIPLE POINT
LOWS TO FORM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND THEN MOVE NORTH AND WEST
THROUGH THE BERING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A POWERFUL YET
COMPACT TRIPLE POINT LOW TO FORM SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND CROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN BETWEEN ATKA AND DUTCH
HARBOR SATURDAY. GIVEN THE SIZE OF THIS FEATURE...NO POPULATED
AREAS MAY SEE MORE THAN STORM FORCE GUSTS...BUT FOR MARINE AREAS
BETWEEN THESE TWO LOCATIONS A SMALL CORE OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH THIS FEATURE. THIS FEATURE WEAKENS
ALMOST AS QUICK AS IT INTENSIFIES BUT MOVES SWIFTLY NORTH AND WEST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS IT BROADENS AND BECOMES THE PRIMARY CENTER OF
ACTION BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

TOWARD THE GULF AND SOUTHERN MAINLAND...MODELS ARE IN
ASTONISHINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHARP HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF ALASKA THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR WEAKENING WINDS OUTSIDE OF SOME WESTERLY GAP WINDS TO
IMPACT THE WHITTIER AREA AS A WEAK GRADIENT ESTABLISHES ITSELF
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. TOWARD KODIAK WEST
INTO THE EASTERN BERING...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ESTABLISH
ITSELF AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE
NORTH AND WEST ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND
WILL BE ON THE WARM AND WET SIDE OF THINGS. PLACES UNDER THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT (SUCH AS GLENNALLEN AND PAXSON) WILL BE
CLEAR...COLD...AND DRY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE ANCHORAGE WILL
BE CAUGHT RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TWO WITH JUST SOMEWHAT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS FROM THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 150 155 172 173 174 175 176 177 181 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MTL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...CC