Small Craft Advisory 8, NWS Anchorage, AK

248 
FZAK52 PAFC 031208
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
308 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-040100-
308 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 962 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW BECOMES A 972 MB ELONGATED LOW
CENTERED NEAR 230 NM SOUTHWEST OF COLD BAY SUN NIGHT...THEN
REMAINS ELONGATED AS IT MOVES TO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN BERING
MON NIGHT WITH THE CENTER LOCATED 70 NM WEST OF MEKORYUK AT 973
MB.

$$

PKZ150-040100-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
308 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.

$$

PKZ155-040100-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
308 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT E 35 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
SEAS 13 FT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO
21 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT EXCEPT E 35 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
E. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT SE 25 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT.

$$

PKZ160-040100-
BRISTOL BAY-
308 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ165-040100-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
308 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...E WIND 20 KT
INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ170-040100-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
308 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

$$

PKZ171-040100-
UNALASKA BAY-
308 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT INCREASING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ172-040100-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
308 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT.

$$

PKZ173-040100-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
308 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT.

$$

PKZ174-040100-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
308 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.

$$

PKZ175-040100-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
308 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ176-040100-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
308 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ177-040100-
ADAK TO KISKA-
308 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ178-040100-
KISKA TO ATTU-
308 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ179-040100-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
308 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.

$$

PKZ180-040100-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
308 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ181-040100-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
308 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY N OF NUNIVAK ISLAND IN THE EVENING.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ185-040100-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
308 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
504 AM AKST SAT JAN 2 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AS A BLOCKING RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND EASTERN ALASKA...THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE AOR REMAINS ACTIVE UNDER A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED WAVES ROTATING
AROUND IT. ONE OF THESE EMBEDDED WAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW...WHICH
IS NOW WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN BERING. A WEAKENING
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW CONTINUES TO BRING
PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND...AS SEEN IN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY.
HOWEVER...WE CAN SEE THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT WHICH BROUGHT COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE AREA STARTING TO SHIFT
EASTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND SOUTHEASTERN
ALASKA...SLOWLY CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE FEED OVER THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND. AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND EASTERN BERING. COLD NORTHERLY FLOW ON
THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO BRING SOME GUSTY AND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN
CHAIN.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...BUT CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH SOME OF THE FINER DETAILS. MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE SLIGHTLY WITH THE TIMING AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF
THE WAVE TRACKING ONSHORE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL THIS MORNING. THE QPF
DIFFERENCES ARE IN PART DUE TO A SLIGHT DIFFERENCE IN THE DEGREE
OF DOWNSLOPING THAT WILL OCCUR OVER ANCHORAGE AND THE WESTERN
KENAI IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REGIME. THE EC IN PARTICULAR
MINIMIZES THE DOWNSLOPING AND BRINGS THE MOST QPF TO ANCHORAGE AND
THE WESTERN KENAI...WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP THE
QPF IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS MUCH LIGHTER. THE NAM SEEMS TO
CAPTURE THE DYNAMICS BETTER...AND WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR THE
SHORT TERM OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING...AS
THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES FURTHER NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE BERING SEA BY
TONIGHT. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS WERE FAVORED FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM IS HIGH.
NEARING THE END OF THE SHORT TERM...OUR EYES SHIFT TO ANOTHER
NORTH PACIFIC LOW TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AKPEN. THE NAM
AND EC WERE THE PREFERRED SOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS THE GFS
BECAME A FAST OUTLIER WITH A SOLUTION SIX HOURS AHEAD OF THE OTHER
MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

FOR THE THIRD DAY IN A ROW THERE IS A FRONT IN THE NORTH GULF
COAST PUSHING INLAND. THIS FRONT IS USHERING IN COOLER AIR ALOFT
BEHIND IT WHICH INCREASES THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE. AFTER THIS FRONT
MOVES THROUGH...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BRING PERSISTENT
SOUTHEAST FLOW TO THE REGION AND ANY MORE DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY
DOWNSLOPE OUT OVER THE LEE SIDE OF THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY LOOKS TO CONTINUE ITS TRACK NORTH AND
FOLLOW THE COASTLINE UNTIL MOVING OUT TOWARDS SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND
THIS EVENING. AS IT MOVES NORTH THE EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
THAT WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA WITH RAIN IN
THE MORE SOUTHERLY LOCATIONS. THE WINDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL
FADE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW DIMINISHES BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM FROM THE
NORTH PACIFIC THEN APPROACHES. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
WILL MOVE IN OVER THE BRISTOL BAY AREA SUNDAY BRINGING IN MORE
RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL HEAD TOWARDS SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND
THIS EVENING WHERE IT WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL
LEAVE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING AND
ALEUTIANS WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE COLDER FLOW. EASTERN
AREAS WILL SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE WARMER SOUTHERLY AIR THAT WILL
BRING RAIN AND SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED PATTERN
OR METEOROLOGICAL REASONING IN THE MID TO LONG TERM FORECAST.
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE POLAR JET IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION ALONG 35-40N. AT THE START OF DAY
3...THE 970 MB LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL BEGIN TO ELONGATE
AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA COAST WHILE
THE RIDGE SPANNING FROM THE BEAUFORT SEA SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN COAST HOLDS STEADLY IN PLACE. THIS PATTERN
WILL BRING A LONG FETCH OF SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN
ALASKA...KEEPING THE REGION IN A RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST
PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...GLOBAL MODELS ARE COMING INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING A LOW SOUTH OF SHEMYA. AS EXPECTED WITH
THIS PATTERN AND AT THE EXTENDED TIME FRAME...DIFFERENCES REMAIN
BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION WITH THIS LOW. THE
GFS BRINGING A LOW CLOSER TO THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN WHILE THE ECMWF
BRINGS ONE LOW WESTWARD ALONG THE POLAR JET AT ABOUT 45N WHILE
BRINGING A SECOND WEAKER LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA....WHICH
THE GFS NEGLECTS.

WITH THIS IN MIND...THE EXTENDED FORECAST ONCE AGAIN RELIED HEAVY
ON WPC GUIDANCE WITH A MIX OF THE ECMWF ON DAY 4 TO ACCOUNT MORE
FOR THE IMPACTS OF THE ELONGATED LOW ALONG THE WESTERN COAST. ON
DAY 3...A BLEND OF THE NAM AND ECMWF ALONG WITH THE EXISTING
FORECAST WAS USED AS MODELS WERE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THIS
TIME FRAME.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 130 132 136-139 150 155 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...RF