Small Craft Advisory 12, NWS Anchorage, AK

162 
FZAK52 PAFC 041221
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
321 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-050115-
321 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 971 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT WEAKENS INTO A BROAD
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN BERING BY
LATE MON NIGHT. A 966 MB LOW 425 NM SOUTH OF ADAK TUE AFTERNOON
MOVES TO 125 NM SOUTHEAST OF ADAK AT 948 MB LATE TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-050115-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
321 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ155-050115-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
321 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT EXCEPT SE 20 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
E. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...S WIND 20
KT BECOMING SW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16
FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ160-050115-
BRISTOL BAY-
321 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ165-050115-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
321 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT N OF PORT MOLLER W. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...E WIND 20 KT
BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ170-050115-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
321 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ171-050115-
UNALASKA BAY-
321 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 5
FT IN THE MORNING BUILDING TO 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-050115-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
321 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 30 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ173-050115-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
321 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ174-050115-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
321 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 33 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ175-050115-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
321 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF ATKA.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ176-050115-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
321 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ177-050115-
ADAK TO KISKA-
321 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY BERING SIDE.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ178-050115-
KISKA TO ATTU-
321 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF SHEMYA.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ179-050115-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
321 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 9
FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ180-050115-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
321 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ181-050115-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
321 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ185-050115-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
321 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT E FROM SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND E.
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY W OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT SE 20 KT FROM SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND E. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY W OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

578 
FZAK52 PAFC 050005
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
305 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-051330-
305 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 971 MB LOW 60 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAND POINT MOVES INLAND NEAR CAPE
CONSTANTINE TUE MORNING AND DISSIPATES. A 971 MB LOW 100 NM
SOUTHWEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND WILL BE A 974 MB LOW 160 NM SOUTHWEST
OF GAMBELL TUE AFTERNOON THEN MOVE INLAND FROM GULF OF ANADYR WED.
A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL INTENSIFY TO 955 MB 260 NM SOUTH OF ATKA
TUE NIGHT THEN INTENSIFY TO 947 MB NEAR ATKA WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-051330-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
305 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 29 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 28 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 29 FT.

$$

PKZ155-051330-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
305 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...S WIND 20
KT BECOMING SW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17
FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

$$

PKZ160-051330-
BRISTOL BAY-
305 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ165-051330-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
305 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...E WIND 20 KT
BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ170-051330-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
305 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.WED...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ171-051330-
UNALASKA BAY-
305 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-051330-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
305 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14
FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.WED...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 35 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ173-051330-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
305 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.WED...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ174-051330-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
305 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.WED...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 35 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 35 FT.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ175-051330-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
305 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ176-051330-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
305 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ177-051330-
ADAK TO KISKA-
305 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING NE 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...N WIND 55 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ178-051330-
KISKA TO ATTU-
305 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AND PATCHY FOG. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ179-051330-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
305 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 31 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ180-051330-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
305 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ181-051330-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
305 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. PATCHY
FOG.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 17 FT.
.THU...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ185-051330-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
305 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 28 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

122 
FZAK52 PAFC 051254
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
354 AM AKST TUE JAN 5 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-060200-
354 AM AKST TUE JAN 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 975 MB LOW CENTERED 60 NM EAST OF SAND POINT WILL MOVE
INLAND NEAR BRISTOL BAY AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. A 973 MB
NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 180 NM SOUTHEAST OF ADAK AS IT
INTENSIFIES TO 951 MB WED MORNING...THEN MOVE TO 230 NM SOUTHWEST
OF SAINT PAUL AT 954 MB WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-060200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
354 AM AKST TUE JAN 5 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 19 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 28 FT.

$$

PKZ155-060200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
354 AM AKST TUE JAN 5 2016

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 50 KT EXCEPT SE 35 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO 24 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E...SEAS 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

$$

PKZ160-060200-
BRISTOL BAY-
354 AM AKST TUE JAN 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ165-060200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
354 AM AKST TUE JAN 5 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM
PORT MOLLER E...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT EXCEPT 8 FT FROM PORT
MOLLER E.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ170-060200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
354 AM AKST TUE JAN 5 2016

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WED...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ171-060200-
UNALASKA BAY-
354 AM AKST TUE JAN 5 2016

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-060200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
354 AM AKST TUE JAN 5 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12
FT BUILDING TO 19 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 33 FT.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ173-060200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
354 AM AKST TUE JAN 5 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT BUILDING TO 29 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 29 FT.
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ174-060200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
354 AM AKST TUE JAN 5 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT BUILDING TO 37 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 38 FT.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ175-060200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
354 AM AKST TUE JAN 5 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT BUILDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ176-060200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
354 AM AKST TUE JAN 5 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING N 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 25 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 29 FT.
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ177-060200-
ADAK TO KISKA-
354 AM AKST TUE JAN 5 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WED...N WIND 55 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ178-060200-
KISKA TO ATTU-
354 AM AKST TUE JAN 5 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY BERING SIDE IN
THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ179-060200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
354 AM AKST TUE JAN 5 2016

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16
FT BUILDING TO 25 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 30 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ180-060200-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
354 AM AKST TUE JAN 5 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 6
FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 10
FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ181-060200-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
354 AM AKST TUE JAN 5 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. PATCHY
FOG.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY
FOG.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT.
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ185-060200-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
354 AM AKST TUE JAN 5 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 31 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
451 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN THE UPPER FLOW AS
INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...THE OVERALL PATTERN
REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED WITH A DEEP ANCHOR LOW OVER THE NORTH
OKHOTSK SEA AND TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
PACIFIC...ALONG WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA. UNDER THIS PATTERN THE TRACK OF THE PAST FEW STORMS HAS
BEEN NEARLY IDENTICAL FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC NORTH TO NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS SHOWS
THE LATEST SYSTEM PUSHING FURTHER NORTHWARD AND INLAND...LEAVING
SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
AS SEEN IN CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY. WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT WRAPPING
BACK IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS PRESENT
OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AND THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ENHANCED BY
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FACING MOUNTAINS IN UPSLOPE FLOW. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN TIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...AND COMBINED
WITH THE INSTABILITY AND PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE LOW...AREAS
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND CONTINUE TO REPORT
SOME LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW IS CROSSING
THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC WITH ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IN THE
960S. THIS LOW HAS STARTED TO CURVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS
PUSHING INTO THE RIDGE HOLDING FAST OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.
THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY STARTED TO WEAKEN AS IT TURNS TOWARD THE
ALASKA PENINSULA...AND IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT ON
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS THAN THE PAST FEW
SYSTEMS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES. THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES OUT AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE ALASKA PENINSULA...PRIMARILY
WITH THE WARM FRONT WHICH PUSHES NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN
BERING SEA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE GFS REMAINS AN OUTLIER IN
FORMING A CLOSED SURFACE LOW ALONG THIS FRONT AND PUSHING IT
NOTABLY FARTHER NORTHWEST INTO THE BERING SEA. THE NAM AND ECMWF
WERE THE PREFERRED SOLUTIONS FOR THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST...SHOWING
A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS FARTHER EAST AND PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN
BERING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT STILL REMAINS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TODAY.
THERE ARE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA
AND ONSHORE. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO
CAUSE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS THE
TERRAIN ENHANCED LIFT IS JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME STRIKES
RIGHT AS IT COMES ONSHORE. THIS WILL LIKELY END BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH GULF COAST MONDAY BUT THIS
ONE WILL BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT FROM THE ONES THE PAST THREE DAYS
AS IT WILL BRING MOST OF THE MOISTURE FARTHER WESTWARD. THIS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THE CHANCES OF BLOWING SNOW IN THOMPSON PASS
AS THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA. AN UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FROM THE
RECENT RAINFALL COMBINED WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN IS A COMBINATION THAT IS
CONDUCIVE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE BIG MITIGATING FACTORS ARE THE
CLOUD COVER AND THE WINDS. THEREFORE THE COPPER RIVER BASIN IS THE
AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH CLEARING TO ALLOW EFFECTIVE COOLING AND A GOOD INVERSION TO
SET UP. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL BUT IT IS FAR FROM A
CERTAINTY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE LOW APPROACHING THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL ELONGATE OUT ACROSS
THE EASTERN BERING TOWARD SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS WILL LEAVE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH MOSTLY RAIN ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE BUT
SNOW FOR THE AHKLUN MOUNTAINS. THE SOUTHERLY PUSH WILL CONTINUE
THE TREND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH MUCH OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
SEEING SNOW AND WITH MORE RAIN AROUND BRISTOL BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE LOW ELONGATING OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING WILL KEEP
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REST OF THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS
THROUGH MONDAY. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
BUT THE MORE EASTERLY LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME MIXING WITH RAIN DUE
TO THE WARM AIR BROUGHT UP BY THE STRETCHED OUT LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND THE FORECAST REASONING IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST LARGELY REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN AS A BROAD NORTH PACIFIC/BERING SEA
TROUGH WITH A CENTER OVER THE SEA OF OKHOTSK AND A LARGE RIDGE
RUNNING FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE MAIN CORE OF THE POLAR JET
WILL REMAIN IN GENERALLY THE SAME LOCATION ALONG 35-40N WITH A
WEAKER POLEWARD EXTENSION ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE
...WHICH WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHCENTRAL/SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

ON DAY 3 /TUESDAY/...THE ELONGATED LOW ALONG THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA
COAST WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NORTHERN BERING. THIS WILL KEEP
INITIALLY WARM AND WET CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH OF THE 00Z RUNS THE GFS
APPEARED TO BE A WESTWARD OUTLIER...THUS A COMBINATION OF THE NAM
AND ECMWF WAS USED WITH THE EXISTING FORECAST WITH A SLOW BLEND
INTO THE EC TO MATCH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE REMAINS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER 950S TO LOWER 960S
MB LOW ABOUT 300-400 NM SOUTH OF ADAK ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
GFS AND EC ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS LOW...WITH
THE GFS FASTER AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN THE EC. BOTH MODELS ARE
SHOWING A GENERAL TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL BERING BEFORE RECURVING
BACK TOWARDS RUSSIA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE EXACT STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF THE LOW WILL BE KEY IN THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS. THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WAS GENERALLY A 50/50 BLEND OF WPC /WHICH USED
THE EC ENSEMBLES/ AND THE 12Z EC RUN. THIS FORECAST METHODOLOGY
BRINGS GALES TO MOST OF THE BERING SEA AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH....ALTHOUGH STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH
THIS LOW. CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY 4-7 FORECAST IS MEDIUM DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
HYDRO...SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY 121
MARINE...GALES 119 120 130-132 136-139 150 155 160 180.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EX
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...RF/DS