Small Craft Advisory 792, NWS Anchorage, AK

558 
FZAK51 PAFC 092340
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
340 PM AKDT SUN OCT 9 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-101300-
340 PM AKDT SUN OCT 9 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL MOVE
WESTWARD AND OUT OF THE GULF THIS EVENING. A NEW FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE GULF FROM THE SOUTH MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-101300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
340 PM AKDT SUN OCT 9 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ120-101300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
340 PM AKDT SUN OCT 9 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ121-101300-
RESURRECTION BAY-
340 PM AKDT SUN OCT 9 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-101300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
340 PM AKDT SUN OCT 9 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-101300-
PORT VALDEZ-
340 PM AKDT SUN OCT 9 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 1 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. 
SEAS 1 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-101300-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
340 PM AKDT SUN OCT 9 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-101300-
VALDEZ ARM-
340 PM AKDT SUN OCT 9 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ129-101300-
PASSAGE CANAL-
340 PM AKDT SUN OCT 9 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.

$$

PKZ130-101300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
340 PM AKDT SUN OCT 9 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-101300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
340 PM AKDT SUN OCT 9 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ132-101300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
340 PM AKDT SUN OCT 9 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ136-101300-
CHINIAK BAY-
340 PM AKDT SUN OCT 9 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-101300-
MARMOT BAY-
340 PM AKDT SUN OCT 9 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-101300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
340 PM AKDT SUN OCT 9 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT EARLY...THEN INCREASING TO 25 KT. 
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-101300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
340 PM AKDT SUN OCT 9 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-101300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
340 PM AKDT SUN OCT 9 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-101300-
KACHEMAK BAY-
340 PM AKDT SUN OCT 9 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
355 PM AKDT SAT OCT 8 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
An omega block remains in place over Alaska this afternoon. An
amplified upper-level ridge of high pressure is parked over
Mainland Alaska while low pressure dominates the Bering Sea and
Southeast Alaska. The occluded low over the Bering is gradually
filling as it tracks northwestward towards the eastern Russian
coast. As the low continues to weaken, gale force winds wrapping
around the system over the western Bering are diminishing
throughout the day. An associated front stretches from eastern
Siberia southeastward along the southwest Alaska coast and across
the Alaska Peninsula, bringing storm force winds and rain to these
areas. Satellite imagery shows a wave developing along the front
south of the Alaska Peninsula, which is aiding in the intensification
of winds and rain along the front.

Further east, much quieter weather continues over the Southcentral
Mainland under high pressure. Clear skies and calm to light winds
are allowing for strong radiational cooling at night, and the
lengthening nights are making it harder for daytime temperatures
to recover each day. The result has been a cooling trend with the
coldest temperatures of the season being reported over Southcentral
over the past couple of days.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in good agreement on synoptic features across the Gulf
and Southcentral Alaska through the short-term forecast period
(Monday Afternoon). Out west, models are in fairly good agreement
through Sun afternoon with the weakening Bering Sea storm tonight
and a developing Western Pacific low which moves to near the
western Aleutians Sun afternoon. Models diverge quickly after this
and continue in poor agreement into Monday. The NAM/GFS hold a
fairly strong low near the Central Aleutians into Monday while the
ECMWF/Canadian move the main low center well south of the Eastern
Aleutians. It seems reasonable with the strong zonal flow
developing over the North Pacific that there will likely be a
fairly significant triple point development south of the Eastern
Aleutians/western Alaska Peninsula and a weakening parent low
holding near the Central Aleutians.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
Ridging will remain over Southcentral Alaska early into the week
but it will diminish and push off to the southeast Sunday before
rebuilding back over the area Monday. As it weakens it will give
way to the front near Kodiak allowing it to push in over the
island bringing rain to the area and cloud cover to portions of
Southcentral Alaska. However, as the ridge rebuilds it will push
the weakening front back to the southwest and cause gap flow winds
to increase in east to west oriented gaps on Monday. On Tuesday
another front will move in over Kodiak Island but will be held up
from further advancement by the ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A frontal system along the Southwest Alaska coast stretching from
the Kuskokwim Delta coast across Bristol Bay and the Alaska
Peninsula will begin shifting east tonight as several shortwaves
rotate around the large upper low over the Bering. The front
however will not make it very far inland and shear apart Sunday as
it hits the large blocking ridge over Mainland Alaska. The tight
easterly pressure gradient currently over Southwest Alaska will
weaken Sunday as the front falls apart allowing the strong easterly
winds to slacken somewhat and turn more southeasterly. Southeast
winds will increase again on Monday as a developing frontal wave
lifts north towards the Alaska Peninsula.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The very large vertically stacked low over the Bering will
continue to gradually fill as it tracks northwest Tonight and
Sunday. The next developing low coming in from the west-southwest
will reach the Aleutian chain around the 180 longitude late
Sunday then move northeast before stalling in the southern Bering
just north of the Central Aleutians on Monday. A triple point
low/frontal wave developing to the south along the north side of
the strong west to east running jet centered around 45N will take
over as the next next feature of significance, although models
struggle with its strength and track. Some solutions have it
phasing with a frontal wave developing along the old front south
of the Alaska Peninsula and lifting it north while others keep it
as a strong independent system further south tracking rapidly east
along the jet. Given the strength of the jet stream tend to favor
the stronger and further south solutions, although do also think
the other two features (the low in the Bering and wave lifting
north to the Alaska Peninsula) will exist and be significant
players as well.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The high latitude omega blocking pattern will quickly break down
on Wednesday as the trough over the Bering Sea/North Pacific
amplifies significantly. The amplification will be caused by a
strengthening jet stream over the North Pacific that will allow
more cold air over Russia to dive down over the Bering Sea. With
increased dynamics of the developing jet stream (and resultant jet
streak), a strong area of low pressure is expected to push across
the Aleutian Islands and Alaska Peninsula Tuesday and Wednesday
before ultimately moving into the Gulf of Alaska.

The Bering Sea will remain quite active over the next 7 days due
to the strengthening upper level trough and numerous disturbances
pushing through the region. Over the Alaska mainland, the ridge
that has been over the region for the past several days will get
pinched off and drift northward toward the arctic as the trough
over the Bering amplifies. This will allow rainfall to return to
Kodiak Island and the gulf coast of Alaska next week but offshore
flow should keep much of interior Alaska on the dry side.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storm Warning 173 174 175.
		 Gale Warning 130 132 150 160 170 172 176 177 178 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RD/BC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JR
LONG TERM...MC