Gale Warning 560, NWS Anchorage, AK

174 
FZAK61 PAFC 101148
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
348 AM AKDT MON OCT 10 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-110130-
348 AM AKDT MON OCT 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A NEW FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF FROM
THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND STALL IN PLACE FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-110130-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
348 AM AKDT MON OCT 10 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 20 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ352-110130-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
348 AM AKDT MON OCT 10 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 19 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 TO 20 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

454 
FZAK61 PAFC 102329
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
329 PM AKDT MON OCT 10 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-111345-
329 PM AKDT MON OCT 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL
GULF TONIGHT...WHERE IT WILL STALL IN PLACE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-111345-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
329 PM AKDT MON OCT 10 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 21 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 22 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ352-111345-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
329 PM AKDT MON OCT 10 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 17 TO 21 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

727 
FZAK61 PAFC 111127
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
327 AM AKDT TUE OCT 11 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-120215-
327 AM AKDT TUE OCT 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A WEATHER FRONT IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-120215-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
327 AM AKDT TUE OCT 11 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ352-120215-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
327 AM AKDT TUE OCT 11 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING E 15 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.FRI...N WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.

$$

671 
FZAK61 PAFC 112322
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
322 PM AKDT TUE OCT 11 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-121415-
322 PM AKDT TUE OCT 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A WEATHER FRONT IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL WEAKEN IN PLACE THROUGH
THU.

$$

PKZ351-121415-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
322 PM AKDT TUE OCT 11 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ352-121415-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
322 PM AKDT TUE OCT 11 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING E 15 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 TO 21 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 15 TO 18 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.
.FRI...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

665 
FZAK61 PAFC 121150
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
350 AM AKDT WED OCT 12 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-130230-
350 AM AKDT WED OCT 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A WEATHER FRONT IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL WEAKEN IN PLACE THROUGH
THU. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF EARLY
THU AND REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-130230-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
350 AM AKDT WED OCT 12 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND UP TO 10 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ352-130230-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
350 AM AKDT WED OCT 12 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 TO 21 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.
.FRI...N WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

254 
FZAK61 PAFC 122330
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
330 PM AKDT WED OCT 12 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-131330-
330 PM AKDT WED OCT 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL WEAKEN IN PLACE THROUGH
THU. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF EARLY
THU AND REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH FRI.

$$

PKZ351-131330-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
330 PM AKDT WED OCT 12 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ352-131330-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
330 PM AKDT WED OCT 12 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

959 
FZAK61 PAFC 131137
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
337 AM AKDT THU OCT 13 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-140115-
337 AM AKDT THU OCT 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL WEAKEN IN PLACE THIS
MORNING. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW IN THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF REMAINS
STATIONARY THROUGH SAT.

$$

PKZ351-140115-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
337 AM AKDT THU OCT 13 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND UP TO 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO
10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ352-140115-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
337 AM AKDT THU OCT 13 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
435 AM AKDT SUN OCT 9 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper level omega block continues to be the main story aloft.
A high amplitude ridge extends from the Gulf of Alaska northward
through the Arctic Circle. The blocking ridge keeps clear sky over
much of the mainland with very seasonable fall weather. While the
clear sky promotes nice fall afternoons, it also promotes
radiational cooling and temperatures dropping near to below
freezing at night.

The active weather in this pattern is driven by a mature low
pressure system over the western Bering. Given the mature nature
of the anchored low, the weather under the trough is fairly benign
with relatively lighter winds and spotty precipitation. Between
the two upper level features is the jet steam and front associated
with Bering low hanging out right over the southwestern Mainland.
The front is weakening as it has lost it's thermal gradient,
driven by the geostrophic jet stream aloft and disturbances
working through said flow. Areas of light rain, tempered by strong
low-level flow over the terrain encompasses much of the southwest.

The more dynamically driven jet stream and attendant low-level
baroclinity is south of the Aleutians peaking near 160 kts, but
not yet impacting the chain quite yet.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The synoptics of the current pattern are well-agreed upon given
the mature nature of the systems. No surprise, the differences
arise with a system yet to develop under the stronger jet stream.
This afternoon a jet streak and attendant shortwave trough will
push over the western Aleutians. Where the models struggle is how
to handle the transition from rapidly deepening cyclone to triple
point low development. Given the progressive nature of the
jet/low-level baroclinic zone, triple point development is very
fast after the parent cyclone development. Guidance is struggling
to discriminate these two features, however they are converging on
a solution, mainly south of the chain.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The battle between the Ridge centered along the Alcan border and
the low in the Bering Sea will continue through the first half of
the week. This morning the front has stalled over the Kodiak
Island area and pushed clouds up Cook Inlet where there is a very
sharp delineation between clouds and clear skies between Kenai
and Anchorage. These clouds should push into the Susitna Valley
later today and then retreat again Monday. There are also some
areas of light rain over the Kenai Peninsula in association with
this front.

The big constant with this pattern is the southeast flow and
frontal boundary that will more or less remain over Kodiak Island
for a good part of the upcoming week. At this time it looks like
there will be enough breaks in the rainfall to not cause any
flooding issues.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The remnants of the front that brought gusty winds and rain to
the coast yesterday will continue to bring rain to most of the
Southwest mainland this morning as it lifts to the north and
dissipates. Conditions will then begin to clear out this afternoon
as evening as most of the moisture departs the area. This will
however be short lived as rain and clouds will spread back into
the area late tonight as an inverted trough over the Gulf moves
over the area. This trough will be the beginning of a more active
pattern for the Southwest mainland as the associated low will
begin to approach the AKpen late Monday, bringing with it
widespread rain and gusty easterly winds that will persist through
early this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The very active and progressive pattern that has setup over the
Bering will continue into early next week. The gale force low
currently departing the northern Bering will quickly be replaced
by yet another storm force low that will move through the
Aleutians late Sunday into Monday. There remains some small
uncertainty in the exact track of this low, however the models
have all trended further to the south, generally sparing most of
the Aleutians from the worst of the winds. This low will then
absorb an approaching North Pacific low late on Monday, spreading
at least gale force winds and rain throughout a majority of the
region into Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

The high latitude omega blocking pattern will quickly break down
on Wednesday as the trough over the Bering Sea/North Pacific
amplifies significantly. The amplification will be caused by a
strengthening jet stream over the North Pacific that will allow
more cold air over Russia to dive down over the Bering Sea. With
increased dynamics of the developing jet stream (and resultant jet
streak), a strong area of low pressure is expected to push across
the Aleutian Islands and Alaska Peninsula Tuesday and Wednesday
before ultimately moving into the Gulf of Alaska. The Bering Sea
will remain quite active over the next 7 days due to the
strengthening upper level trough and  numerous disturbances
pushing through the region. Over the Alaska mainland, the ridge
that has been over the region for the past several days will get
pinched off and drift northward toward the arctic as the trough
over the Bering amplifies. This will allow rainfall to return to
Kodiak Island and the gulf coast of Alaska next week, but
offshore flow should keep much of interior Alaska on the dry side.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storm Warning 174 175 176
	 	 Gale Warning 132 150 155 160 165 170 172 173 177 178 180

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MTL
AVIATION...MTL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...MC