Small Craft Advisory 768, NWS Anchorage, AK

076 
FZAK51 PAFC 282300
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
300 PM AKDT WED SEP 28 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-291200-
300 PM AKDT WED SEP 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH FRI
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-291200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
300 PM AKDT WED SEP 28 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-291200-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
300 PM AKDT WED SEP 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-291200-
RESURRECTION BAY-
300 PM AKDT WED SEP 28 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-291200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
300 PM AKDT WED SEP 28 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-291200-
PORT VALDEZ-
300 PM AKDT WED SEP 28 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY MORNING FOG.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-291200-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
300 PM AKDT WED SEP 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-291200-
VALDEZ ARM-
300 PM AKDT WED SEP 28 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-291200-
PASSAGE CANAL-
300 PM AKDT WED SEP 28 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-291200-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
300 PM AKDT WED SEP 28 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-291200-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
300 PM AKDT WED SEP 28 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-291200-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
300 PM AKDT WED SEP 28 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ136-291200-
CHINIAK BAY-
300 PM AKDT WED SEP 28 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-291200-
MARMOT BAY-
300 PM AKDT WED SEP 28 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-291200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
300 PM AKDT WED SEP 28 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ139-291200-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
300 PM AKDT WED SEP 28 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-291200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
300 PM AKDT WED SEP 28 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-291200-
KACHEMAK BAY-
300 PM AKDT WED SEP 28 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
403 PM AKDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There is an upper level ridge over western Alaska that is moving
towards the east. A weak upper level trough over Southcentral
Alaska is also moving east with the western Alaska ridge building
behind it. There is a fairly robust positively tilted gale force
front over the central Bering Sea. This front is associated with a
large and deep upper low that is centered over northeast Russia.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in good agreement through the short term
portion of the forecast (Thursday afternoon). The models begin to
differ with a low south of the western Aleutians on Thursday
afternoon, with the ECMWF much weaker and further south. Forecast
confidence is thus a bit above normal today.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Mostly clear and dry conditions will persist over Southcentral
Alaska through the end of the week as a amplifying North Pacific
ridge builds over the area this evening from the west. The only
exception to these clear and dry conditions would be a small
window of mid-to-high level clouds moving in from the west
Wednesday morning to early afternoon, as a weak upper level wave
tracks over the area.

Colder overnight temperatures are expected across Southcentral
overnight tonight and overnight Wednesday, with mostly clear
skies and weak/dry offshore flow. Outflow winds through the gaps
surrounding Prince William Sound and the Northern Gulf Coast (Valdez,
Whittier/Portage, Seward, and Copper River Delta areas.) will pick
up Wednesday night and persist through Thursday night. This is due
to high pressure and cooler temperatures setting up over the
inland areas, and tightening the gradient between the lower
pressure and warmer sea surface temperatures over the Gulf and
Prince William Sound.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
A trough out over the northern Bering will push through the
Kuskokwim Delta tonight and the remainder of southwest Alaska
Wednesday morning bringing rain to the area. Wednesday afternoon
ridging will move in over the area from the west and last through
Thursday which will help with fog formation during night time
hours. Late Thursday a new system pushes in from the south
bringing rain and strong winds to coastal areas. On Friday the
rain will push further inland as the parent low moves into the
Bering.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
High pressure will dominate much of the Bering and Aleutians
through much of Wednesday before a shortwave pushes north across
the Central Aleutians Wednesday evening. Following behind that
shortwave is a much stronger system that will bring its front
across the Central Aleutians late Thursday and to the Alaska
Peninsula by Friday morning. This system will be characterized by
rain and strong winds that will impact much of the Bering and
Aleutians with the strongest winds over the eastern Bering on
Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The extended term will begin on Thursday night with a high
amplitude ridge extending over the center of the state from the
subtropical Pacific, keeping the southern mainland precipitation
free beneath mostly clear skies towards the end of the work week.
Rain will return to Southwest AK Friday night into Saturday as a
front associated with a low moving into the Bering Sea arrives
along the coast and pushes inland. Forecast confidence then
quickly begins to decrease during the weekend regarding the
evolution of the Bering system and how it interacts with the ridge
in place over the mainland. The current forecast reflects a blend
of ensemble guidance which has a general consensus of weakening
the front over the southwestern gulf and shunting the remaining
energy towards the southeast as it encounters and eventually
bisects the Pacific ridge, displacing the mainland high to the
north but still keeping weak high pressure over the southern
mainland through early next week. This would have the net effect
of keeping Southcentral AK mainly dry throughout the extended
period, with temperatures hovering near seasonal normal values and
dipping to near freezing at night. Meanwhile, the Bering looks to
remain in a more active pattern as various waves rotating around a
deep Siberian low bring sporadic windy and rainy conditions
through early next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 172 173 174 175 176 181 185 411 413.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...CB