Gale Warning 502, NWS Anchorage, AK

399 
FZAK62 PAFC 282334
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
334 PM AKDT WED SEP 28 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-291400-
334 PM AKDT WED SEP 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN BERING WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
BERING TONIGHT AND TO THE EASTERN BERING THU NIGHT. A 988 MB LOW
AT 48N 179W LATE THU AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 53N 172W AT 984 MB FRI
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-291400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
334 PM AKDT WED SEP 28 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT...BECOMING NW UP TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON W OF 176E. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ412-291400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
334 PM AKDT WED SEP 28 2016

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING S 10 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ413-291400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
334 PM AKDT WED SEP 28 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.THU...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ414-291400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
334 PM AKDT WED SEP 28 2016

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

921 
FZAK62 PAFC 291140
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
340 AM AKDT THU SEP 29 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-300115-
340 AM AKDT THU SEP 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A WEATHER FRONT MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL TO THE EASTERN BERING BY
THU NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE REGION. A 993 MB LOW AT 46N 180W THU
AFTERNOON MOVES TO 53N 172W AT 987 MB FRI AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TO 63N 178W AT 978 MB SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-300115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
340 AM AKDT THU SEP 29 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING SW 10 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ412-300115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
340 AM AKDT THU SEP 29 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT...EXCEPT NW 20 TO 35 KT W OF 178W.
SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ413-300115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
340 AM AKDT THU SEP 29 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT...EXCEPT NW 25 TO 40 KT W OF 176W. SEAS
7 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ414-300115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
340 AM AKDT THU SEP 29 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

166 
FZAK62 PAFC 292323
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
323 PM AKDT THU SEP 29 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-301330-
323 PM AKDT THU SEP 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A WEATHER FRONT MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL TO THE EASTERN BERING BY
THU NIGHT BEFORE EXITING THE REGION. A 993 MB LOW AT 46N 180W THU
AFTERNOON MOVES TO 53N 172W AT 987 MB FRI AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM
MOVES TO 63N 178W AT 978 MB SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-301330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
323 PM AKDT THU SEP 29 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ412-301330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
323 PM AKDT THU SEP 29 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. W OF 177W...VARIABLE WIND TO 20 KT
BECOMING NW 25 TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ413-301330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
323 PM AKDT THU SEP 29 2016

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING N 25 TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ414-301330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
323 PM AKDT THU SEP 29 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING 30 TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT BECOMING S 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. S OF THE PRIBILOFS...WINDS BECOMING W 35 TO 45 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.

$$

318 
FZAK62 PAFC 301118
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
318 AM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-010100-
318 AM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 987 MB LOW NEAR 50N 175W WILL MOVE TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AT
983 MB FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE TO 64N 168W AT 988 MB SATURDAY
NIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING SATURDAY EVENING.

$$

PKZ411-010100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
318 AM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ412-010100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
318 AM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT EXCEPT NW 15 TO 30 KT W OF 178W.
SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 TO 45 KT. E OF 175W...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT
BECOMING NW 30 TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ413-010100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
318 AM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT EXCEPT NW 25 TO 40 KT W OF 177W.
SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ414-010100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
318 AM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT INCREASING TO 35 TO 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT BECOMING S 25 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. W OF 166W...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING W AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
403 PM AKDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There is an upper level ridge over western Alaska that is moving
towards the east. A weak upper level trough over Southcentral
Alaska is also moving east with the western Alaska ridge building
behind it. There is a fairly robust positively tilted gale force
front over the central Bering Sea. This front is associated with a
large and deep upper low that is centered over northeast Russia.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in good agreement through the short term
portion of the forecast (Thursday afternoon). The models begin to
differ with a low south of the western Aleutians on Thursday
afternoon, with the ECMWF much weaker and further south. Forecast
confidence is thus a bit above normal today.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Mostly clear and dry conditions will persist over Southcentral
Alaska through the end of the week as a amplifying North Pacific
ridge builds over the area this evening from the west. The only
exception to these clear and dry conditions would be a small
window of mid-to-high level clouds moving in from the west
Wednesday morning to early afternoon, as a weak upper level wave
tracks over the area.

Colder overnight temperatures are expected across Southcentral
overnight tonight and overnight Wednesday, with mostly clear
skies and weak/dry offshore flow. Outflow winds through the gaps
surrounding Prince William Sound and the Northern Gulf Coast (Valdez,
Whittier/Portage, Seward, and Copper River Delta areas.) will pick
up Wednesday night and persist through Thursday night. This is due
to high pressure and cooler temperatures setting up over the
inland areas, and tightening the gradient between the lower
pressure and warmer sea surface temperatures over the Gulf and
Prince William Sound.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
A trough out over the northern Bering will push through the
Kuskokwim Delta tonight and the remainder of southwest Alaska
Wednesday morning bringing rain to the area. Wednesday afternoon
ridging will move in over the area from the west and last through
Thursday which will help with fog formation during night time
hours. Late Thursday a new system pushes in from the south
bringing rain and strong winds to coastal areas. On Friday the
rain will push further inland as the parent low moves into the
Bering.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
High pressure will dominate much of the Bering and Aleutians
through much of Wednesday before a shortwave pushes north across
the Central Aleutians Wednesday evening. Following behind that
shortwave is a much stronger system that will bring its front
across the Central Aleutians late Thursday and to the Alaska
Peninsula by Friday morning. This system will be characterized by
rain and strong winds that will impact much of the Bering and
Aleutians with the strongest winds over the eastern Bering on
Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The extended term will begin on Thursday night with a high
amplitude ridge extending over the center of the state from the
subtropical Pacific, keeping the southern mainland precipitation
free beneath mostly clear skies towards the end of the work week.
Rain will return to Southwest AK Friday night into Saturday as a
front associated with a low moving into the Bering Sea arrives
along the coast and pushes inland. Forecast confidence then
quickly begins to decrease during the weekend regarding the
evolution of the Bering system and how it interacts with the ridge
in place over the mainland. The current forecast reflects a blend
of ensemble guidance which has a general consensus of weakening
the front over the southwestern gulf and shunting the remaining
energy towards the southeast as it encounters and eventually
bisects the Pacific ridge, displacing the mainland high to the
north but still keeping weak high pressure over the southern
mainland through early next week. This would have the net effect
of keeping Southcentral AK mainly dry throughout the extended
period, with temperatures hovering near seasonal normal values and
dipping to near freezing at night. Meanwhile, the Bering looks to
remain in a more active pattern as various waves rotating around a
deep Siberian low bring sporadic windy and rainy conditions
through early next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 172 173 174 175 176 181 185 411 413.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...CB