Small Craft Advisory 735, NWS Anchorage, AK

829 
FZAK51 PAFC 152358
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
358 PM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-161315-
358 PM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 986 MB LOW 60 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY WILL BE A 994 MB LOW NEAR
SITKINAK FRI AFTERNOON THEN WEAKEN TO A 998 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF
YAKUTAT SAT AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR
SITKINAK SOUTHEAST FRI AFTERNOON THEN MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA BY SAT MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-161315-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
358 PM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT SE 30 KT NEAR THE COAST. SEAS 8 FT.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-161315-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
358 PM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ121-161315-
RESURRECTION BAY-
358 PM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-161315-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
358 PM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3
FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-161315-
PORT VALDEZ-
358 PM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-161315-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
358 PM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW WIND 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-161315-
VALDEZ ARM-
358 PM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-161315-
PASSAGE CANAL-
358 PM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-161315-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
358 PM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ131-161315-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
358 PM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ132-161315-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
358 PM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
DANGEROUS CAPE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ136-161315-
CHINIAK BAY-
358 PM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ137-161315-
MARMOT BAY-
358 PM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ138-161315-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
358 PM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-161315-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
358 PM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-161315-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
358 PM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-161315-
KACHEMAK BAY-
358 PM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
727 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A broad vertically stacked low sits near the Eastern Aleutians
with its associated front pushing through Southcentral Alaska and
the central Gulf. The low itself is slowly drifting to the east.
There is also ridging out ahead of the front that is retreating
off to the east over Canada. Out west, cold air is being ushered
south into the western Bering on the backside of the main low.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models are in good agreement until late tonight when the low
near the Eastern Aleutians moves east past the Alaska Peninsula.
Some of the upper level energy moves off to the north while the
majority continues east towards the Gulf. Meanwhile an upper level
low pushes down from the north along the west coast. The models
are having difficulties with the interactions between these
features. The GFS was the preferred model for its handling of this
time frame.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Showers will persist through Friday morning as another
front moves through the northern gulf into Southcentral AK.
Downslope flow will initially keep ceilings relatively high this
morning, with ceilings dropping and rain picking up in intensity
by early afternoon as the flow aloft becomes more southerly.
Despite the reduction in ceilings, VFR conditions are expected to
persist through the TAF period, with conditions improving once
again in the 03-06z time frame.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A low is moving up Cook Inlet early this morning bringing some
moderate rain showers to the Cook Inlet region and to the Prince
William Sound area. There is cooler air aloft moving into
Southcentral with this low and that will keep some showers around.
The big question is how long they will linger in the area. At
this time it looks like the Western Kenai Peninsula should get out
of most of the rainfall by the afternoon but a convergence zone
setting up in the northern part of the Inlet may keep showers in
the Anchorage bowl and Mat-Su valleys for most of the day. The
next upper level disturbance will come up Cook Inlet tonight with
more shower activity associated with it.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Thu and Fri)...
A vertically stacked low continues to weaken as it tracks along
the Aleutian Islands. This feature is helping to keep conditions
rather mild across the area with deep southeast to southwest
winds. These mild conditions are allowing for some instability
across the area. The low is bringing some colder air aloft with
temperatures near 18,000' hovering between -22 and -24C. This is
creating some fairly steep lapse rates. Several weak waves
continue to rotate around the primary low. Each of these waves
will bring the potential for a few lightning strikes, especially
over the coastal waters. Steadier rain will accompany the waves
themselves, but otherwise, most of the precipitation should start
to become more showery in nature as the low itself moves overhead
by Fri morning. As we look at Fri night and into the weekend, some
cooler air will start to wrap in behind this low. 850mb
temperatures drop from 4C Fri afternoon to below 0C by Sat
afternoon. This could to lead some gustier northwest winds as
well.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2...Thu and
Fri)...
The low over the Central Bering continues to produce a swath of
gale-force winds north and south of its core. The southern area is
out over the North Pacific. The area to the north stretches mainly
from the Seward Peninsula into the Western Bering. It is being fed
by a low-level temperature gradient with colder air starting to
filter down from the Arctic. These gales will diminish for the
most part by Fri morning as most of the cold air modifies over the
open waters. A weak deformation axis is hung up over the Pribilof
Islands this morning bringing light rain and some fog. This axis will
pivot to a more north- south orientation by tonight as the low
pulls east. This will leave most of the Bering under cooler north
to northwest flow and vulnerable to showery conditions. Some of
this cooler air could also bring gale-force gusts to channeled
areas over the Eastern Bering and Eastern Aleutians.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Beginning the long term forecast period Saturday morning, there
will be a broad positive tilt trough extending from the Eastern
Bering into the Eastern Gulf of Alaska. This will keep inland rain
and showers through the weekend before the trough moves east and a
ridge builds into southern Alaska. Meanwhile, a strong trough
moving off the Kamchatka Peninsula will move east into the Bering
Sea Saturday and Sunday with the associated front moving east
across the Bering Sea Sunday and Monday. There remains quite a bit
of uncertainty with this trough and its associated front as all
the major modeling centers vary with how much/when the North
pacific moisture stream phases with the trough. This impacts low
track, strength, and speed with divergence rising Sunday. With
that said, even with the disparate solutions, the general story is
the same with a brief drying period Sunday evening into Monday
before the front moves into southwest Alaska Monday...and then
Southcentral by Monday night and Tuesday. The low/front will reach
strong gale force across the Bering Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None
MARINE...Gale Warning 185

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
AVIATION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MO
LONG TERM...JA