Small Craft Advisory 733, NWS Anchorage, AK

796 
FZAK51 PAFC 151743 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
943 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

UPDATED 119 AND 125

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-160630-
943 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE NORTH
GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN GULF THIS EVENING AND TO THE NORTH GULF COAST FRI
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-160630-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
943 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ120-160630-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
943 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ121-160630-
RESURRECTION BAY-
943 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-160630-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
943 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR HICHINBROOK ENTERANCE. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-160630-
PORT VALDEZ-
943 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-160630-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
943 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-160630-
VALDEZ ARM-
943 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-160630-
PASSAGE CANAL-
943 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-160630-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
943 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-160630-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
943 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ132-160630-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
943 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ136-160630-
CHINIAK BAY-
943 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-160630-
MARMOT BAY-
943 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-160630-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
943 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ139-160630-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
943 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 15 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 3
FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-160630-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
943 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-160630-
KACHEMAK BAY-
943 AM AKDT THU SEP 15 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
423 PM AKDT WED SEP 14 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Satellite indicates a well stacked low over the Aleutians, with a
weakening upper level ridge over the mainland. At the surface, a
weakening front crosses the Bering and is making its way onshore
across the southern portion of the mainland. Rainfall with this
front so far has ranged from 0.01 to 0.05 inches per hour. Jet
support for this system still remains far to the south of the
forecast area, with a trajectory toward the panhandle. This
indicates that there is not a tropical connection with this
system, unlike the last system, and rainfall amounts are not
expected to be as heavy. Similarly, mid level winds are ranging in
the 35 to 40 knot range and therefore the warning-level winds from
the last system are not expected to repeat. Behind the front,
satellite shows that conditions under the upper level low are
pretty unstable and the Aleutians and Bering Sea can expect some
sunny breaks in between the low clouds.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in pretty good agreement on the short term. Slight
differences on the arrival of the precipitation in the west, with
GFS selected as the model of choice. In the east, NAM was chosen
as more representative, with high resolution models used for winds
in the channeled terrain.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...SE winds are expected to pick up ahead of the approaching
front. Due to downsloping, cigs are not expected to drop with the
front, but later in the period winds aloft should switch to more
S/SW'rly, so bringing lower cigs in then. Timing on the wind
shifts differs between models so confidence in the current TAF
timing is low.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The front that is beginning to enter the Western Gulf will cause
widespread rain to redevelop throughout the gulf this evening, as
well as bring increasing winds. Latest runs of the NAM and ARW
both have indicated a slightly stronger pressure gradient than
initially expected, and as a result winds along the barrier jet
were increased to gale force. This front will also bring strong
winds to Turnagain Arm and downsloping conditions to the Anchorage
Bowl, which will limit any moisture to just periods of light rain.
Rain should however begin to fill in by late Thursday morning as
downsloping diminishes, allowing southwesterly flow to develop.
This will bring the greatest chance of rain to much of
Southcentral and should persist into the early evening as the
upper level trough passes overhead. Over the Gulf Coast,
widespread moderate-heavy rain should develop in most areas, but
without deep southerly flow and current downtrend at many area
rivers this is not expected to cause any significant hydrological
concerns. This will need to be monitored however, especially in
the Seward area which looks to receive 2-2.5" of rainfall from
this system after heavy rains they received on Sunday. The upper
level trough will then slowly begin to move over the landfall for
Friday, keeping widespread rain and cooler temperatures throughout
the region through late this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The weather front continues to track farther north before exiting
into the Upper Kuskokwim Valley during the early evening hours
tonight. This will result in a showery weather regime as an upper
level low track along the Eastern Aleutians by Tuesday. Therefore,
look for weak shortwaves associated with the aforementioned synoptic
feature to produce a showery regime as these features track
through the Southwest Alaska region through Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The broad area of weakening low pressure system remains positioned over
the Central Aleutians as it tracks eastward before moving to the
Eastern Aleutians by Thursday afternoon. The winds will shift from
northeasterly to more northerly direction resulting in colder air
filtering in from the northern Bering heading into Thursday. The
precipitation will remain as a showery weather regime as this
synoptic feature tracks through the Bering, and the Aleutians.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Beginning the long term forecast period Friday evening, there will
be a broad positive tilt trough extending from the Eastern Bering
into the Eastern Gulf of Alaska. This will keep inland rain and
showers through the weekend before the trough moves east and a
ridge builds into southern Alaska. Meanwhile, a strong trough
moving off the Kamchatka Peninsula will move east into the Bering
Sea Saturday and Sunday with the associated front moving east
across the Bering Sea Sunday and Monday. There remains quite a
bit of uncertainty with this trough and its associated front as
all the major modeling centers vary with how much/when the North
pacific moisture stream phases with the trough. This impacts low
track, strength, and speed with divergence rising Sunday. With
that said, even with the disparate solutions, the general story is
the same with a brief drying period Sunday evening into Monday
before the front moves into southwest Alaska Monday...and then
Southcentral by Monday night and Tuesday. The low/front will reach
strong gale force across the Bering Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning 119 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...LF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...JA