Small Craft Advisory 729, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Sep 13, 2016, 3:24 PM AKDT (23:24 UTC)

Expired

Sep 14, 2016, 4:00 AM AKDT

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

725 
FZAK52 PAFC 132324
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
324 PM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-141200-
324 PM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 978 MB LOW 150 NM WEST OF ADAK MOVES 70 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH
HARBOR AT 986 MB THU AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSHES OVER
THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND EXTENDS SOUTH OF
THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. A 985 MB LOW FORMS 105 NM
NORTH OF COLD BAY THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-141200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
324 PM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ155-141200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
324 PM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ160-141200-
BRISTOL BAY-
324 PM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-141200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
324 PM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT W OF PORT MOLLER AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ170-141200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
324 PM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ171-141200-
UNALASKA BAY-
324 PM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-141200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
324 PM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ173-141200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
324 PM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ174-141200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
324 PM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ175-141200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
324 PM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ176-141200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
324 PM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ177-141200-
ADAK TO KISKA-
324 PM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...PACIFIC SIDE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. BERING
SIDE...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 20 AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT.
AREAS OF FOG.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT BERING SIDE...17 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ178-141200-
KISKA TO ATTU-
324 PM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT 15 KT E OF SHEMYA. SEAS 13 FT.
AREAS OF FOG.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ179-141200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
324 PM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 15 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 11
FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ180-141200-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
324 PM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT EXCEPT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON S OF
CAPE NEWENHAM. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-141200-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
324 PM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ185-141200-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
324 PM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Sep 13, 5:29 AM AKDT, 9 hours 55 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
529 AM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
An upper level trough currently running north to south from the
Talkeetna mountains to eastern Kenai Peninsula will continue east
through the early morning hours with a band of more organized
showers following it east. Breezy southerly winds up Cook Inlet
and into the Susitna Valley are following the trough east. Over
Southwest Alaska, showers have diminished with the exception of
some scattered mountain showers and more numerous showers along
the Alaska Range as ridging builds along the west coast and the
Alaska Peninsula. Further to the west a frontal system stretches
across the Bering and central Aleutians with the parent low just
south of the far western Aleutians.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are currently in good synoptic agreement through the mid
term with only minor differences in the track and timing of the
key features. For the western domain the GFS was preferred as a
good middle ground compromise solution for the low tracking east
along the Aleutians. For the eastern domain, the NAM and Canadian
were preferred to trend towards a slower solution with the front
crossing the Gulf Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Gusty south winds will continue through early this
afternoon before the passage of the trough and a weakening up-
inlet pressure gradient allow winds to diminish and shift to the
southwest. VFR conditions are expected to persist through
Wednesday morning as high pressure builds over the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

As low pressure deamplifies as it moves north and east away from
Southcentral Alaska today, a slightly cooler and much drier regime
will move across much of the region from the south and west. Winds
will generally continue the onshore trend, except for perhaps in
the Prince William Sound region where a weak surface low and
westerly cold advection may allow for some weak outflow winds,
especially at Seward and Whittier. This pattern will be extremely
short-lived before clouds and moisture return in association with
a large Aleutian low moving toward the area. The initial warm
front will bring showers to coastal locations as early as
Wednesday, with the primary front arriving late Wednesday into
Thursday, bringing the next shot of significant rain and some wind
to much of the region, especially along the North Gulf Coast and
Prince William Sound. This next system does not appear to be a
significant wind threat for the Anchorage area, unlike the
previous system.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Tue and Wed)...
Much of the energy and precipitation associated with the
seasonable low pressure system is now moving to the east of the
area. This will allow for a brief drying trend that will last
until the next front starts to make its way in Wed morning. Some
low clouds and patchy fog could hang on through this morning. But
then skies will slowly clear from west to east today as a
shortwave ridge tries to provide some subsidence to the area. As
the next front approaches from the Eastern Bering tonight, expect
winds to switch to an east to southeast direction and increase
towards daybreak Wed. Rain will reach the Alaska Peninsula during
the overnight hours and should track to inland Bristol Bay right
around sunrise. This system will not pack nearly the punch that
the former system did, so winds and precipitation amounts should
be lighter. As the front falls apart over the area into Thu,
expect more showery conditions with winds starting to diminish
some.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2...Tue and
Wed)...
The low that is currently just south of Shemya is pushing a
massive occlusion through the Central Bering. The low will make a
slow eastward track right along the Aleutian Chain. As it does so,
gale-force southeast to easterly winds will continue along the
occluded front. This sprawling low will dominate the sensible
weather across the entire Bering. Steady rain at Atka will track
with the front into the Cold Bay area by this afternoon. Steady
rain will persist for areas east of the low center, favoring the
Pacific-facing side of the islands. To the west of the low
center, more showery and gusty conditions will develop and persist
into Thu.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Beginning the extended period Thursday morning, a large trough
centered over the Aleutian Chain will be in the process of
supporting the eastward progression of a warm front into southern
Alaska. This will spread showers and rain into the region,
although the strength of this front will be rather weak,
especially compared to the strong front which just moved through
Southcentral. The trough will then move east and stall over the
Gulf through the weekend, keeping a continued cloudy and seasonal
pattern in place. In other words, it will feel like a typical
Alaska fall. Impacts are generally expected to be minimal with no
major storms or heavy rain events...with temperatures remaining
near climatology.

Beginning next week, the large scale pattern becomes increasingly
noisy as the models all diverge with respect to the North Pacific
pattern and a trough moving into the Bering from the Kamchatka
Peninsula. All the major models show rather different strengths and
speeds of this trough, so an ensemble approach was favored which
will depict a zonal flow pattern and will keep precipitation
chances inland along with average temperatures for next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None
MARINE...Gale Warning 170 172 173 174 175 176 177 179 185

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MO
LONG TERM...JA

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2016Every small craft advisory in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.