Small Craft Advisory 727, NWS Anchorage, AK

725 
FZAK52 PAFC 132324
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
324 PM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-141200-
324 PM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 978 MB LOW 150 NM WEST OF ADAK MOVES 70 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH
HARBOR AT 986 MB THU AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSHES OVER
THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND EXTENDS SOUTH OF
THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. A 985 MB LOW FORMS 105 NM
NORTH OF COLD BAY THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-141200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
324 PM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ155-141200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
324 PM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ160-141200-
BRISTOL BAY-
324 PM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-141200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
324 PM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT W OF PORT MOLLER AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ170-141200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
324 PM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ171-141200-
UNALASKA BAY-
324 PM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-141200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
324 PM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ173-141200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
324 PM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ174-141200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
324 PM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ175-141200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
324 PM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ176-141200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
324 PM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ177-141200-
ADAK TO KISKA-
324 PM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...PACIFIC SIDE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. BERING
SIDE...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 20 AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT.
AREAS OF FOG.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT BERING SIDE...17 FT PACIFIC SIDE.
PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ178-141200-
KISKA TO ATTU-
324 PM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT 15 KT E OF SHEMYA. SEAS 13 FT.
AREAS OF FOG.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ179-141200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
324 PM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 15 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 11
FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ180-141200-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
324 PM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT EXCEPT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON S OF
CAPE NEWENHAM. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-141200-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
324 PM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ185-141200-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
324 PM AKDT TUE SEP 13 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
426 PM AKDT MON SEP 12 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A vertically stacked low pressure system lies over the Yukon
Delta this morning, with a strong upper level trough extending
down into the Northern Pacific. The main surface front has moved
northeast of Valdez and Cordova at the writing of this discussion.
This feature was supported by a strong southerly jet and brought
significant rains and warning level winds to the Southcentral
region overnight. Heavy rain is still falling in the Valdez area
currently, but that is expected to taper off soon as the front
dissipates as it moves northward.

Behind this surface feature, the lingering upper level trough is
still bringing some instability and weak cold air advection over
the southwest today. Radar and satellite indicate that the trough
has passed through Bethel this morning and is currently making its
way through the Bristol Bay region. The instability ahead of this
trough may be enough to kick off a few lightning strikes around
the region today, although nothing has shown up yet. A shortwave
ridge is moving in behind the low pressure system and conditions
over the Bering Sea are fairly quiet with some sunny breaks this
morning.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models are in great agreement this morning. Timing of the upper
level trough moving through the Y-K Delta verified very well.
There are some minor differences on timing of the next front to
move through the Aleutians, but these did not make a significant
impact to the day 3 forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...Southerly winds are the challenge for PANC today. It looks
like they will decrease a bit through the day, but then increase
again this evening as the upper level trough pushes through.
Although the flow aloft is primarily southwesterly, winds at PANC
should remain southerly through the TAF period. Thunderstorms were
mentioned as an afternoon possibility in the previous discussion,
however this is looking even less likely for the 00Z package.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Rain along the Northern Gulf Coast and Prince William Sound will
continue to become more showery this evening, as the warm front
pushes further inland and dissipates and a secondary trough begins
to approach the region from the west. This system will keep
showery conditions over the area through tonight, with the
possibility of initiating a lightning strike or two over the
Susitna Valley and/or Western Copper River Basin this evening.
Gusty gap winds along Turnagain Arm, as well as around the Prince
William Sound and Copper River Basin areas will continue to
diminish this evening, as the gradient over these areas begins to
slacken with the front weakening and tracking further inland.

By Tuesday morning, drier and cooler air will begin to filter in
from west to east over much of Southcentral. With drier conditions
leading to some surface heating (increased instability) over the
Copper River Basin Tuesday, and an upper level wave passing over
the area enhancing vertical lift, isolated thunderstorms are
expected to develop over parts of the Copper River Basin Tuesday
afternoon/early evening. However, this cooler and drier regime
will be short-lived before the return flow begins to weakly re-
establish itself by late Tuesday night. By Wednesday morning,
another front will begin to track into the Western Gulf from the
southwest, and push northward into the Northern Gulf Coast and
coastal regions of Southcentral by Wednesday afternoon. This will
bring another round of rainy and gusty conditions to the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The upper trough and cold front are exiting the mainland tonight,
though both features will linger along the Alaska Range, lingering
steady precipitation in that area. Most of the mainland will be
post-frontal with steeper low level lapse rates and low level
moisture in place will result in very light showers, sprinkles
really. Somewhat gusty westerly winds behind the front will drop
off quickly overnight into Tuesday. Upper level ridging builds
overhead during the day, which should clear out low clouds around
the area. Early Wednesday morning a front will spread over the
mainland from south to north across the area bringing another
round of rain. Winds from this system will be weaker than the
last. Expect near normal temperatures for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
High pressure will sit over the eastern Bering tonight bringing an
end to any lingering rain showers, and bringing a temporary period
of light/variable winds. An occluded front will continue to
progress slowly eastward, stall a bit then rotate to the northeast
on Tuesday. This front is gale force, and will spread rain
generally from west to east before weakening in place on
Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Beginning the extended period Wednesday evening, a large trough
centered over the Aleutian Chain will be in the process of
supporting the eastward progression of a warm front into southern
Alaska. This will spread showers and rain into the region,
although the strength of this front will be rather weak,
especially compared to the strong front which just moved through
Southcentral. The trough will then move east and stall over the
Gulf through the weekend, keeping a continued cloudy and seasonal
pattern in place. In other words, it will feel like a typical
Alaska fall. Impacts are generally expected to be minimal with no
major storms or heavy rain events...with temperatures remaining
near climatology.

Beginning next week, the large scale pattern becomes increasingly
noisy as the models all diverge with respect to the North Pacific
pattern and a trough moving into the Bering from the Kamchatka
Peninsula. All the major models show rather different strengths and
speeds of this trough, so an ensemble approach was favored which
will depict a zonal flow pattern and will keep precipitation
chances inland along with average temperatures for next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning 170 172 173 174 175 176 177 179 .

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...LF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PEPE
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ML
LONG TERM...JA