Small Craft Advisory 705, NWS Anchorage, AK

005 
FZAK51 PAFC 070455 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
855 PM AKDT TUE SEP 6 2016

UPDATE TO ZONES 119 AND 120

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-071715-
855 PM AKDT TUE SEP 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1001 MB LOW OVER WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN GULF TONIGHT AND MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE GULF THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-071715-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
855 PM AKDT TUE SEP 6 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ120-071715-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
855 PM AKDT TUE SEP 6 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. EVENING SHOWERS.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ121-071715-
RESURRECTION BAY-
855 PM AKDT TUE SEP 6 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-071715-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
855 PM AKDT TUE SEP 6 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-071715-
PORT VALDEZ-
855 PM AKDT TUE SEP 6 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-071715-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
855 PM AKDT TUE SEP 6 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-071715-
VALDEZ ARM-
855 PM AKDT TUE SEP 6 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-071715-
PASSAGE CANAL-
855 PM AKDT TUE SEP 6 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-071715-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
855 PM AKDT TUE SEP 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ131-071715-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
855 PM AKDT TUE SEP 6 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ132-071715-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
855 PM AKDT TUE SEP 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ136-071715-
CHINIAK BAY-
855 PM AKDT TUE SEP 6 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-071715-
MARMOT BAY-
855 PM AKDT TUE SEP 6 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-071715-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
855 PM AKDT TUE SEP 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-071715-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
855 PM AKDT TUE SEP 6 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-071715-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
855 PM AKDT TUE SEP 6 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-071715-
KACHEMAK BAY-
855 PM AKDT TUE SEP 6 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

777 
FZAK51 PAFC 071200
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 7 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-080030-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THU
AFTERNOON. A FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF THU MORNING AND
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF LATE THU NIGHT. A 1000 MB LOW MOVES TO 240
NM SOUTH KODIAK ISLAND THU AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHENS TO 990 MB AS
IT MOVES TO 150 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND LATE FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-080030-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 7 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ120-080030-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 7 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ121-080030-
RESURRECTION BAY-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 7 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-080030-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 7 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-080030-
PORT VALDEZ-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 7 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-080030-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 7 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-080030-
VALDEZ ARM-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 7 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-080030-
PASSAGE CANAL-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 7 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-080030-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 7 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ131-080030-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 7 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ132-080030-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 7 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ136-080030-
CHINIAK BAY-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 7 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-080030-
MARMOT BAY-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 7 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-080030-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 7 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-080030-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 7 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-080030-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 7 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-080030-
KACHEMAK BAY-
400 AM AKDT WED SEP 7 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
444 AM AKDT TUE SEP 6 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
While the Bering Sea upper low is still flexing muscle over the
Great Land, it has weakened greatly and seemingly no longer the
dominant feature on the map. The feature that stands out most to
me is a polar one, a deep low northeast of Banks Island well up
into the Canadian Arctic. How does this affect our pattern you
ask? Combined with a stout Siberian high pressure system, a
northerly gradient flow between these two features is driving a
lobe of the trough southward across Alaska. The trough dropping
south is helping to push the previous system eastward, finally.

The southwest Mainland is already seeing showers associated with
this trough as well as showers lingering along the Alaska
Peninsula with the previous trough. Most of the bulk of what is
left of the upper low is propagating into the western Gulf/Cook
Inlet region helping to force showers around the region.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Despite a changing pattern aloft, guidance remains locked into the
current pattern. The general consensus shows the trough moving in
from the north, currently encroaching on the Southwest will make
it's way across the Alaska Range, on a similar track to the
current system. The higher resolution NAM was used on the east,
while the GFS was used out west.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Showers are covering much of Southcentral this morning, with ample
moisture and forcing in place. The upper level low over Bristol
Bay will continue to support widespread showers across
Southcentral throughout the day today as it moves towards Prince
William Sound. There is enough associated vorticity and cold air
aloft to support embedded heavier convective showers throughout
the day today. At the surface, the low pressure surface reflection
is expected to be fairly weak. As a result, downsloping and gap
winds are expected to be negligible, with widespread rainfall
expected. By early Wednesday morning, drier conditions are
expected across the region as the low continues to push eastward.
However, with cold air aloft, lapse rates will be sufficient to
still support occasional showers, especially along the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Shower activity has gradually diminished overnight as much of the
upper level support has shifted east of the Alaska and Aleutian
Ranges. While rain showers are expected to persist through
Wednesday, coverage of these showers will largely limited to the
Lower Kuskokwim Delta and northern parts of the Bristol Bay area
(mainly north of Dillingham). A weak shortwave rotating on the
back side of the upper level low over the Kenai Peninsula could
produce just enough upper level support to produce a thunderstorm
or two over the Kuskokwim Delta today but overall probabilities of
seeing one will be much less than yesterday. Another decent upper
level low will push south toward the Y-K Delta on Wednesday but
the atmosphere will be much more stable which will likely inhibit
much in terms of shower coverage. Fog could become an issue as the
atmosphere stabilizes Wednesday night with the best chances in
valley locations and near area bodies of water as skies begin to
clear.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

With the departure of the vertically stacked low, organized
shower activity has dropped off significantly across the Bering
Sea. Some isolated showers are expected across portions of the
western Bering Sea where a weak upper level low spins off the
coast of Kamchatka. In the mean time, high pressure has begun to
build over the Bering Sea and will continue to do so through
Thursday. This will lead to a more stable air mass that will be
conducive for low stratus and fog. A frontal boundary associated
with a low south of the western Aleutians will move toward the
Western and Central Aleutians late Thursday into Friday and
increase rain chances across these area.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
A showery pattern will linger across the southern mainland and
particularly over Southcentral AK through Thursday evening until a
deep upper level trough shifts east of the region. Passage of the
trough will bring a temporary respite from the wet and cloudy
pattern as it is replaced by upper level ridging and dry
northerly flow, yielding a couple days of mostly sunny skies
heading into the weekend. The next system poised to impact the
region will spin up south of the Aleutian chain on Friday and make
quick eastward progress towards the AK Peninsula as a deep North
Pacific low over the course of the weekend. A potentially strong
associated front will advance north towards the mainland in this
time frame, bringing a return of steady rain to Southwest AK by
Saturday night and then Southcentral AK on Sunday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MTL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MC
LONG TERM...CB