Small Craft Advisory 704, NWS Anchorage, AK

042 
FZAK52 PAFC 071146
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
346 AM AKDT WED SEP 7 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-080100-
346 AM AKDT WED SEP 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BERING THROUGH
THU NIGHT. A 990 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES 425 NM SOUTH OF
SHEMYA THU AFTERNOON THEN TRACKS TO 360 NM SOUTH OF KISKA AT THE
SAME STRENGTH EARLY FRI MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-080100-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
346 AM AKDT WED SEP 7 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ155-080100-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
346 AM AKDT WED SEP 7 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT W OF THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ160-080100-
BRISTOL BAY-
346 AM AKDT WED SEP 7 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-080100-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
346 AM AKDT WED SEP 7 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ170-080100-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
346 AM AKDT WED SEP 7 2016

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ171-080100-
UNALASKA BAY-
346 AM AKDT WED SEP 7 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-080100-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
346 AM AKDT WED SEP 7 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ173-080100-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
346 AM AKDT WED SEP 7 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ174-080100-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
346 AM AKDT WED SEP 7 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ175-080100-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
346 AM AKDT WED SEP 7 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ176-080100-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
346 AM AKDT WED SEP 7 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ177-080100-
ADAK TO KISKA-
346 AM AKDT WED SEP 7 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT PACIFIC SIDE.
SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ178-080100-
KISKA TO ATTU-
346 AM AKDT WED SEP 7 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ179-080100-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
346 AM AKDT WED SEP 7 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ180-080100-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
346 AM AKDT WED SEP 7 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-080100-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
346 AM AKDT WED SEP 7 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ185-080100-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
346 AM AKDT WED SEP 7 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT 10 KT W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...VARIABLE
10 KT W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
444 AM AKDT TUE SEP 6 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
While the Bering Sea upper low is still flexing muscle over the
Great Land, it has weakened greatly and seemingly no longer the
dominant feature on the map. The feature that stands out most to
me is a polar one, a deep low northeast of Banks Island well up
into the Canadian Arctic. How does this affect our pattern you
ask? Combined with a stout Siberian high pressure system, a
northerly gradient flow between these two features is driving a
lobe of the trough southward across Alaska. The trough dropping
south is helping to push the previous system eastward, finally.

The southwest Mainland is already seeing showers associated with
this trough as well as showers lingering along the Alaska
Peninsula with the previous trough. Most of the bulk of what is
left of the upper low is propagating into the western Gulf/Cook
Inlet region helping to force showers around the region.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Despite a changing pattern aloft, guidance remains locked into the
current pattern. The general consensus shows the trough moving in
from the north, currently encroaching on the Southwest will make
it's way across the Alaska Range, on a similar track to the
current system. The higher resolution NAM was used on the east,
while the GFS was used out west.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Showers are covering much of Southcentral this morning, with ample
moisture and forcing in place. The upper level low over Bristol
Bay will continue to support widespread showers across
Southcentral throughout the day today as it moves towards Prince
William Sound. There is enough associated vorticity and cold air
aloft to support embedded heavier convective showers throughout
the day today. At the surface, the low pressure surface reflection
is expected to be fairly weak. As a result, downsloping and gap
winds are expected to be negligible, with widespread rainfall
expected. By early Wednesday morning, drier conditions are
expected across the region as the low continues to push eastward.
However, with cold air aloft, lapse rates will be sufficient to
still support occasional showers, especially along the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Shower activity has gradually diminished overnight as much of the
upper level support has shifted east of the Alaska and Aleutian
Ranges. While rain showers are expected to persist through
Wednesday, coverage of these showers will largely limited to the
Lower Kuskokwim Delta and northern parts of the Bristol Bay area
(mainly north of Dillingham). A weak shortwave rotating on the
back side of the upper level low over the Kenai Peninsula could
produce just enough upper level support to produce a thunderstorm
or two over the Kuskokwim Delta today but overall probabilities of
seeing one will be much less than yesterday. Another decent upper
level low will push south toward the Y-K Delta on Wednesday but
the atmosphere will be much more stable which will likely inhibit
much in terms of shower coverage. Fog could become an issue as the
atmosphere stabilizes Wednesday night with the best chances in
valley locations and near area bodies of water as skies begin to
clear.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

With the departure of the vertically stacked low, organized
shower activity has dropped off significantly across the Bering
Sea. Some isolated showers are expected across portions of the
western Bering Sea where a weak upper level low spins off the
coast of Kamchatka. In the mean time, high pressure has begun to
build over the Bering Sea and will continue to do so through
Thursday. This will lead to a more stable air mass that will be
conducive for low stratus and fog. A frontal boundary associated
with a low south of the western Aleutians will move toward the
Western and Central Aleutians late Thursday into Friday and
increase rain chances across these area.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
A showery pattern will linger across the southern mainland and
particularly over Southcentral AK through Thursday evening until a
deep upper level trough shifts east of the region. Passage of the
trough will bring a temporary respite from the wet and cloudy
pattern as it is replaced by upper level ridging and dry
northerly flow, yielding a couple days of mostly sunny skies
heading into the weekend. The next system poised to impact the
region will spin up south of the Aleutian chain on Friday and make
quick eastward progress towards the AK Peninsula as a deep North
Pacific low over the course of the weekend. A potentially strong
associated front will advance north towards the mainland in this
time frame, bringing a return of steady rain to Southwest AK by
Saturday night and then Southcentral AK on Sunday.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MTL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MC
LONG TERM...CB