Small Craft Advisory 700, NWS Anchorage, AK

604 
FZAK52 PAFC 042331
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
331 PM AKDT SUN SEP 4 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-051215-
331 PM AKDT SUN SEP 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1000 MB LOW NEAR SAINT GEORGE MOVES TO 125 NM SOUTHWEST OF
KIPNUK AT 1002 MB MON AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES INTO MAINLAND
ALASKA.

$$

PKZ150-051215-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
331 PM AKDT SUN SEP 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ155-051215-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
331 PM AKDT SUN SEP 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ160-051215-
BRISTOL BAY-
331 PM AKDT SUN SEP 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ165-051215-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
331 PM AKDT SUN SEP 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ170-051215-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
331 PM AKDT SUN SEP 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ171-051215-
UNALASKA BAY-
331 PM AKDT SUN SEP 4 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-051215-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
331 PM AKDT SUN SEP 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ173-051215-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
331 PM AKDT SUN SEP 4 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ174-051215-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
331 PM AKDT SUN SEP 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ175-051215-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
331 PM AKDT SUN SEP 4 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ176-051215-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
331 PM AKDT SUN SEP 4 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ177-051215-
ADAK TO KISKA-
331 PM AKDT SUN SEP 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ178-051215-
KISKA TO ATTU-
331 PM AKDT SUN SEP 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ179-051215-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
331 PM AKDT SUN SEP 4 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ180-051215-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
331 PM AKDT SUN SEP 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. N OF CAPE NEWENHAM...SE WIND 15 KT
BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF
FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. N OF CAPE NEWENHAM...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT.
SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. N OF CAPE NEWENHAM...VARIABLE
WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ181-051215-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
331 PM AKDT SUN SEP 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ185-051215-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
331 PM AKDT SUN SEP 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT NE 10 KT FROM SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND E. SEAS 8 FT...EXCEPT 4 FT FROM SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND E.
PATCHY FOG.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

425 
FZAK52 PAFC 051154
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
354 AM AKDT MON SEP 5 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-060045-
354 AM AKDT MON SEP 5 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1002 MB LOW 120 NM NORTHEAST OF SAINT PAUL ISLAND WILL MOVE TO
10 NM SOUTHWEST OF KIPNUK THIS AFTERNOON AT 1002 MB...THEN MOVE
INTO MAINLAND ALASKA THIS EVENING. A 1011 MB LOW WILL FORM 220 NM
NORTH OF ADAK TONIGHT AND MOVE TO 160 NM NORTHWEST OF ADAK AT 1016
MB BY TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-060045-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
354 AM AKDT MON SEP 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ155-060045-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
354 AM AKDT MON SEP 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ160-060045-
BRISTOL BAY-
354 AM AKDT MON SEP 5 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
IN THE MORNING. AREAS OF FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ165-060045-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
354 AM AKDT MON SEP 5 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ170-060045-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
354 AM AKDT MON SEP 5 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ171-060045-
UNALASKA BAY-
354 AM AKDT MON SEP 5 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-060045-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
354 AM AKDT MON SEP 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ173-060045-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
354 AM AKDT MON SEP 5 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ174-060045-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
354 AM AKDT MON SEP 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ175-060045-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
354 AM AKDT MON SEP 5 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ176-060045-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
354 AM AKDT MON SEP 5 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ177-060045-
ADAK TO KISKA-
354 AM AKDT MON SEP 5 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ178-060045-
KISKA TO ATTU-
354 AM AKDT MON SEP 5 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ179-060045-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
354 AM AKDT MON SEP 5 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ180-060045-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
354 AM AKDT MON SEP 5 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT N OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
SEAS 5 FT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IN THE MORNING N OF
CAPE NEWENHAM. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ181-060045-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
354 AM AKDT MON SEP 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ185-060045-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
354 AM AKDT MON SEP 5 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT FROM SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND E.
SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
434 PM AKDT SAT SEP 3 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A large mature low along the Aleutians continues to drift
northward while a series of waves rotate around the impressive
circulation, which extends over 2000 miles from the north-central
Pacific to the western Alaska mainland. The upper jet on the front
side of the trough has shifted eastward and is now transporting
deep moisture across the Pacific and toward the southern Gulf of
Alaska. The leading short-wave of this system was completely
shearing apart this morning as it headed inland across Southwest
Alaska and approached Southcentral, with some energy heading
eastward across the Gulf and some energy rotating back westward
within the low circulation. Thus, rainfall is quite meager, with
scattered to widely scattered showers falling from Southwest
Alaska to the southern Kenai Peninsula. Sunshine dominates out
ahead of this across interior Southcentral, but clouds have been on
the increase throughout the day.

Infrared satellite imagery showed rapidly cooling clouds late
this morning along the Alaska Peninsula and into the eastern
Bering Sea. This was being produced by one of the more impressive
short-waves rounding the low. As it reached a surface occluded
front right out ahead of it this afternoon, this wave
reinvigorated the front and provided a much more widespread area
of steady rainfall. A separate short-wave south of Kodiak Island,
led to the development of a triple point low near Kodiak Island
this afternoon and helped increase rainfall across the western
Gulf. For the remainder of the region back behind the frontal
system the Aleutian low and various weaker waves continue to
produce showers.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Guidance remains in good agreement with large scale features the
next couple days. However, there are all sorts of timing issues,
especially Tonight through Sunday with progression of the
occluded front inland across Southwest and Southcentral Alaska
and track of the weak triple point low across the northern Gulf.
This is in large part due to the disjointed nature of the upper
level forcing, with multiple mostly weak waves tracking in
different directions. Thus, don't particularly favor any one
solution. Will use a fairly broad-brushed approach to the precip
forecast to account for this uncertainty in timing. Aside from
this, overall forecast confidence is above average.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A ridge presently over the Gulf of Alaska, which has provided
Southcentral Alaska with warmer and drier weather the past few
days, will begin to retreat to the south this evening. This will
make way for an upper low over the Central Aleutians to track
eastward over the Southwest Mainland over the next few days, with
multiple weak waves associated with it tracking through the Gulf
and Southcentral region within this time frame. At the surface, a
weakening front will continue to track through the Gulf tonight
and into the Northern Gulf Coast and Southcentral by Sunday, and
persist into early next week.

The net result will be a transition to a more cool and wet
pattern, with some gusty winds along the Northern Gulf coast and
through the typical gaps surrounding Prince William Sound and
along the Copper River. Light rain will continue to expand
northward tonight along the Kenai Peninsula and Northern Gulf
coast, with only some sprinkles making it into the Anchorage area
tonight into early tomorrow morning. Light rain will then envelop
much of Southcentral by late Sunday morning, and persist through
the early part of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The weather in the eastern Bering Sea looks to track through the
Southwest Alaska region during the evening tonight. Therefore, the
AOR remains influenced by onshore flow with abundant moisture
resulting in continued wetting rains. By Sunday morning an upper
level shortwave moves into the Bristol Bay coastline resulting in
a showery regime through Sunday evening. As the surface low
pressure moves farther eastward, look for several more shortwave
to rotate around the upper level low to kick-off more showers for
the Southwest Alaska region heading into Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The vertically stacked upper level low is located over the Central
Aleutians just north of Adak this evening. This system tracks south
of the Pribilof Islands by Sunday afternoon with a 996 mb low
pressure system reflected at the surface near Adak. By Sunday
afternoon the surface low will weaken to 999 mb located west of
Saint Paul. There will be southerly to southwesterly winds ahead
of this synoptic feature, and small craft advisory northerly winds
on the backside of this system. Therefore, the Bering and the
Aleutians will have a showery weather regime through the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The large upper level low will track inland from Bristol Bay into
Southwest Alaska Monday night, bringing an unsettled, showery air
mass with it. The low will then continue east across the northern
Gulf Tuesday and swing through Southeast Alaska Tuesday night and
Wednesday. A cooler trough dropping out of the northwest will
swing through Southwest Alaska Wednesday and Southcentral Alaska
Thursday. Although the trough's energy will initially
reinvigorate shower activity, the showers should taper off quickly
once the trough is through and cooler, drier north to
northwesterly flow pushes in behind it. After the trough there
looks to be at least one day of cool, dry weather in the Friday
time frame. Following that, however, model solutions rapidly
diverge...likely due to formerly tropical moisture getting caught
up in the westerly jet south of the Aleutians.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...seb
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...tp
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...pd
LONG TERM...jr