Small Craft Advisory 68, NWS Anchorage, AK

833 
FZAK51 PAFC 210853 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1153 PM AKST WED JAN 20 2016

UPDATED 129

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-212115-
1153 PM AKST WED JAN 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 968 MB LOW 600 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL BE A 974 MB
LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND THU AFTERNOON THEN WEAKEN TO
987 MB LOW 90 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-212115-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
1153 PM AKST WED JAN 20 2016

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ120-212115-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
1153 PM AKST WED JAN 20 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ121-212115-
RESURRECTION BAY-
1153 PM AKST WED JAN 20 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-212115-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
1153 PM AKST WED JAN 20 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ126-212115-
PORT VALDEZ-
1153 PM AKST WED JAN 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-212115-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
1153 PM AKST WED JAN 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-212115-
VALDEZ ARM-
1153 PM AKST WED JAN 20 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-212115-
PASSAGE CANAL-
1153 PM AKST WED JAN 20 2016

UPDATED

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-212115-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
1153 PM AKST WED JAN 20 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS
BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE EVENING. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ131-212115-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
1153 PM AKST WED JAN 20 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ132-212115-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
1153 PM AKST WED JAN 20 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ136-212115-
CHINIAK BAY-
1153 PM AKST WED JAN 20 2016

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ137-212115-
MARMOT BAY-
1153 PM AKST WED JAN 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ138-212115-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
1153 PM AKST WED JAN 20 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT INCREASING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ139-212115-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
1153 PM AKST WED JAN 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ140-212115-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
1153 PM AKST WED JAN 20 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ141-212115-
KACHEMAK BAY-
1153 PM AKST WED JAN 20 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

160 
FZAK51 PAFC 211259
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
359 AM AKST THU JAN 21 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-220145-
359 AM AKST THU JAN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 970 MB LOW 500 NM S OF CAPE SUCKLING WILL MOVE
TO 100 NM S OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 984 MB FRI MORNING...THEN MOVE
TO 110 NM S OF SEWARD AT 990 MB AND DISSIPATE LATE FRI NIGHT. A
973 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 280 NM S OF CHIGNIK EARLY
SAT MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-220145-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
359 AM AKST THU JAN 21 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT EARLY INCREASING TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT
OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER DELTA EARLY. SEAS BUILDING TO 19 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ120-220145-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
359 AM AKST THU JAN 21 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ121-220145-
RESURRECTION BAY-
359 AM AKST THU JAN 21 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-220145-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
359 AM AKST THU JAN 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ126-220145-
PORT VALDEZ-
359 AM AKST THU JAN 21 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-220145-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
359 AM AKST THU JAN 21 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-220145-
VALDEZ ARM-
359 AM AKST THU JAN 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-220145-
PASSAGE CANAL-
359 AM AKST THU JAN 21 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-220145-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
359 AM AKST THU JAN 21 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ131-220145-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
359 AM AKST THU JAN 21 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ132-220145-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
359 AM AKST THU JAN 21 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ136-220145-
CHINIAK BAY-
359 AM AKST THU JAN 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ137-220145-
MARMOT BAY-
359 AM AKST THU JAN 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ138-220145-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
359 AM AKST THU JAN 21 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ139-220145-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
359 AM AKST THU JAN 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ140-220145-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
359 AM AKST THU JAN 21 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ141-220145-
KACHEMAK BAY-
359 AM AKST THU JAN 21 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
548 AM AKST WED JAN 20 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE ANCHORING MEAN CENTER OF THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW COMPLEX
HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WEST TO AROUND 54N 155W...HOWEVER THAT
CIRCULATION IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING OUT AS THE NEW LARGE NORTH
PACIFIC LOW LIFTS NORTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN GULF TO REPLACE IT.
THE LATEST OF THE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND WILL SWING
INLAND OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND. WHILE THIS
FEATURE IS A BIT WEAKER AND MORE DIFFUSE THAN THE PREVIOUS TROUGH
LAST NIGHT...ASCAT SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS...MIDDLETON ISLAND AND
BUOYS 61 AND 76 HAVE ALL BEEN SHOWING NORTH TO EAST WINDS IN THE
35 KNOT RANGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER.

FURTHER WEST...A NEW STRONG LOW IS STARTING TO SPIN UP WELL TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ALEUTIANS WITH FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER OVER MUCH
OF THE BERING...BRISTOL BAY AND MAINLAND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. SHOWERS
ARE CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ALASKA PENINSULA IN
ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH CROSSING THE GULF. OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...COOL DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
TO PREVAIL. NORTHERLY FLOW AND A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES
TO SPILL COLD AIR AND STRATUS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ALL LOOK TO BE WELL INITIALIZED ON THE MAIN SYNOPTIC
FEATURES AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR PROGRESSION FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE TROUGH
ROTATING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THIS MORNING COMPARED WITH NAM
AND THE NAM A BIT STRONGER WITH THE DOWNSLOPING IMPACTS ON
PRECIPITATION...BUT OTHERWISE NET DIFFERENCES WERE VERY SMALL. IN
THE WESTERN DOMAIN THE GFS/EC SOLUTIONS WERE PREFERRED FOR BEING A
LITTLE FASTER WITH THE FRONT PUSHING INTO THE ALEUTIANS ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2...WED AND
THU)...
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF LOWS FROM THE GULF IS MAKING ITS
WAY THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL THIS MORNING. RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOK
VERY SIMILAR TO MONDAY MORNING AS THE LAST LOW MOVED THROUGH THE
AREA. AREAS OVER WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE EASTERN
KENAI WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION WHILE SOME OF IT
SNEAKS THROUGH INTO THE PORTAGE VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM IS BRINGING
ANOTHER POCKET OF WARMER TEMPERATURES...SO MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN AT COASTAL SITES WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW MAKING IT TO INLAND LOCATIONS. THIS LOW WILL ALSO STIR UP
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS...BUT NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK QUICKLY OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE ALASKA RANGE. THIS WILL MAKE FOR CLEARING SKIES
AND A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS FOR
MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THU. YET ANOTHER LOW IN THE SERIES
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH IN THE GULF ON THU. WITH SOME COLDER
AIR INLAND...THIS SET UP WILL ONCE AGAIN HELP TO ENHANCE THE
OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE FAVORED MATANUSKA VALLEY AND THOMPSON PASS.
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO REACH THE COAST LATE THU...BUT
WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE ANY PROGRESS INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE UPPER LEVELS HAVE SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE BRISTOL BAY REGION. THE REST OF SOUTHWEST
ALASKA REGION WILL CONTINUE WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW RESULTING IN
DRIER CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS WILL CONTINUE TO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A SHOWERY
WEATHER REGIME. BY THURSDAY MORNING A WEATHER FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FROM THE PACIFIC SIDE. THIS WILL BRING GUSTY
GALE FORCE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. BY THURSDAY
MIDDAY THERE WILL BE A SMALL WINDOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
BLOWING SNOW FOR SHEMYA AS THE MOISTURE ARRIVES COMBINING WITH
THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE NEAR FREEZING ALONG THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN
CHAIN. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE WARMER AIR WILL HAVE PUSHED
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIXTURE BEFORE ALL RAIN BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
BERING SEA WILL HAVE MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE REGION AS THE
WEATHER FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE BERING SEA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

ACROSS THE GULF THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AN ORGANIZED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ANCHOR ITSELF IN THE REGION...BRINGING RAIN
AND SOME SNOW ALONG GULF COASTAL LOCATIONS...INCLUDING
KODIAK...WHILE A GALE-FORCE WINDS ALONG A DECAYING FRONT SLOWLY
DIMINISHES. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INLAND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NORTH-SOUTH PASSES BETWEEN THE
COLDER INLAND AREAS AND WARMER AIR MASS OVER THE GULF...BUT DO NOT
LOOK TO BECOME PARTICULARLY STRONG AT THIS TIME.

TO THE WEST...A NORTH PACIFIC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE A FRONT NORTH ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
BERING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WHILE THE PRIMARY LOW MOVES
EAST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CHAIN. ACROSS THE NORTH AND EASTERN
BERING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS RIDGING SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM.
WINDS WILL STAY GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH AND EAST AS THE FRONT
REMAINS SOUTH OF THIS REGION.

MODELS THEN SUGGEST ONE OR TWO STRENGTHENING TRIPLE POINT LOWS
MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND MOVE NORTH TOWARD
SOUTHERN ALASKA AND/OR THE SOUTHEAST BERING SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME.

THE MAIN IMPACTS WITH THIS PATTERN WILL BE A FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER
REGIME FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THE LATER PART OF THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. STRONGER WINDS TO GALE-FORCE
WILL BE CONFINED TO STRONGER EMBEDDED LOWS WITHIN THE BROAD
CYCLONIC PATTERN.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 119 120 130 131 132 136 138 150 178
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JR
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...CC