Gale Warning 87, NWS Anchorage, AK

861 
FZAK52 PAFC 220009
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
309 PM AKST THU JAN 21 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-221245-
309 PM AKST THU JAN 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 966 MB LOW 575 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL TRACK TO 175 NM SOUTH
OF ADAK AT 972 MB SAT AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN BERING SEA WILL WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL BERING
FRI. A 975 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 425 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR FRI
MORNING AND MOVE TO 150 NM SOUTH OF SITKINAK AT 974 MB SAT
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-221245-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
309 PM AKST THU JAN 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT 20 KT W OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND.
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ155-221245-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
309 PM AKST THU JAN 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ160-221245-
BRISTOL BAY-
309 PM AKST THU JAN 21 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-221245-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
309 PM AKST THU JAN 21 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ170-221245-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
309 PM AKST THU JAN 21 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ171-221245-
UNALASKA BAY-
309 PM AKST THU JAN 21 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ172-221245-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
309 PM AKST THU JAN 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ173-221245-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
309 PM AKST THU JAN 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ174-221245-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
309 PM AKST THU JAN 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ175-221245-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
309 PM AKST THU JAN 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT TOWARD MORNING.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ176-221245-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
309 PM AKST THU JAN 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ177-221245-
ADAK TO KISKA-
309 PM AKST THU JAN 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 25 KT.
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ178-221245-
KISKA TO ATTU-
309 PM AKST THU JAN 21 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT E OF SHEMYA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT 20 KT E OF SHEMYA. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ179-221245-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
309 PM AKST THU JAN 21 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ180-221245-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
309 PM AKST THU JAN 21 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT S OF CAPE NEWENHAM
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY N OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT S OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N
OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. S OF CAPE NEWENHAM...VARIABLE WIND 10
KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-221245-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
309 PM AKST THU JAN 21 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY
FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ185-221245-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
309 PM AKST THU JAN 21 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT 20 KT FROM SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND E.
SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE
30 KT W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY N OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
425 PM AKST WED JAN 20 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE SYNOPTIC SETUP REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED OVER THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND AND BERING SEA FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS. A LONGWAVE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE BERING SEA AND NORTH PACIFIC WITH THE UPPER JET
WRAPPING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE JET IS SUPPORTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MULTIPLE WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND THEN TRACKING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE EASTERN
AND NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. A LARGE NORTH PACIFIC LOW CAN BE SEEN
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TRACKING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
THEN NORTHWARD TO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS LARGE LOW IS MOVING
AWAY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO THE SOUTH AND AS SUCH HAS
ALREADY STARTED TO WEAKEN AS ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT APPROACHES THE
SOUTHERN GULF. ANOTHER MUCH SMALLER AND WEAKENING LOW LOCATED
WEST OF THE KENAI PENINSULA HAS BROUGHT SHOWERS TO SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA THIS MORNING. WITH THE ONSHORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THESE
SHOWERS ARE STRONGEST IN COASTAL UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE EASTERN
KENAI PENINSULA...PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
ALASKA RANGE. WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR FREEZING THESE
SHOWERS ARE FALLING AS A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH FREEZING
RAIN BEING REPORTED THIS MORNING IN GIRDWOOD. WARMING AT THE
SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON ENDED THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT. THE
MORNING SOUNDING FOR ANCHORAGE SHOWS A POCKET OF DRY AIR IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. THIS IS ALLOWING ANY OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS
MOVING OVER THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS TO ANCHORAGE TO EVAPORATE BEFORE
REACHING THE SURFACE AND AS SUCH IS KEEPING THE ANCHORAGE BOWL
DRY. OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BENIGN WEATHER IS IN PLACE AS
OFFSHORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE KEEPING THE AREA COOL AND DRY.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND A WEAK WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF
A DECAYING LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA IS KEEPING SHOWERS
AND LOWER CLOUDS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA AND
ALEUTIANS. TO THE WEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS A WEATHER FRONT
CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY APPROACHING THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. ALL OF THE
MODELS ARE TRACKING THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH PACIFIC
UP TO THE CENTRAL GULF THURSDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL BRING IN
PRECIPITATION STARTING THURSDAY EVENING THAT WILL MAINLY BE
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. MODELS ARE ALSO IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS THURSDAY MORNING. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAD
THE FRONT APPROACHING SLIGHTLY FASTER...BUT LATEST RUNS HAVE
SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SO THAT ALL THE MODELS ARE NOW
CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
LINGERING SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE AREAS SURROUNDING
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND WILL WRAP UP LATER TONIGHT...AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA THIS MORNING
DISSIPATED WHILE PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE WET AND WINDY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL...WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER CONDITIONS STICKING
AROUND INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANOTHER LOW TRACKING UP
FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL PUSH NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WET AND WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREAS SURROUNDING THE GULF COAST AND PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND. WITH DECENT RIDGING AND THE AVAILABILITY OF COLDER
AIR OVER THE INLAND AREAS...OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN AND
BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE FAVORED GAPS AROUND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY
AND THOMPSON PASS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVER BRISTOL BAY THIS
EVENING...THERE WILL BE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH
OFFSHORE FLOW ENTRENCHED OVER SOUTHWEST MAINLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH
ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS EARLY THURSDAY AND BRING A ROUND
OF SNOW INITIALLY BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN BY LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS ENOUGH WARM AIR IS USHERED NORTH OVER THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN. HOWEVER...ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE
PRIBILOFS TO REMAIN ALL SNOW DURING THIS TIME WITH MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

ACROSS THE GULF LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ANCHORED OVER THE GULF WILL BRING RAIN AND SOME SNOW ALONG GULF
COASTAL LOCATIONS. WEAK DEFORMATION BETWEEN A VERY WEAK
APPROACHING COOK INLET FROM THE WEST AND THE LOW OVER THE GULF
MAY HELP TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT SNOW FROM THE WESTERN KENAI
PENINSULA NORTH THROUGH THE SUSITNA VALLEY FROM LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. ANYTHING THAT FALLS WOULD BE
EXTREMELY LIGHT...BUT AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS WINTER EVEN A DUSTING
ON THE MAJOR THOROUGHFARES HAVE CAUSED MAJOR IMPACTS AT TIMES...SO
THIS IT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR THE POTENTIAL.

TO THE WEST...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN
CHAIN AND BERING SEA EXTENDING EAST TO THE BRISTOL BAY AND ALASKA
PENINSULA REGIONS WITH MULTIPLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND FRONTS
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. GIVEN BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT
WILL PERSIST OVER THIS REGION...STRONGER WINDS WILL BE CONFINED
ONLY TO THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARIES SURROUNDING THE LOWS.

MODELS SUGGEST ONE OR TWO STRENGTHENING TRIPLE POINT LOWS MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND MOVE NORTH TOWARD SOUTHERN
ALASKA AND/OR THE SOUTHEAST BERING SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE SOUTHERLY JET STREAM RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE
STATE. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIALLY SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN ALASKA. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND EXACT PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL
FEATURES.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 119 120 130 131 132 136 138 150 191 351 352 411.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...CC