Small Craft Advisory 669, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Aug 22, 2016, 3:06 PM AKDT (23:06 UTC)

Expired

Aug 23, 2016, 3:45 AM AKDT

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

695 
FZAK52 PAFC 222306
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-231145-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 995 MB LOW INLAND NEAR BETHEL BECOMES A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN BERING BY LATE TONIGHT...THEN PERSISTS THERE
THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT. A FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL BERING MOVES OVER
THE ALEUTIANS TONIGHT...THEN DISSIPATES. ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN BERING TUE EVENING AND MOVES OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-231145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ155-231145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ160-231145-
BRISTOL BAY-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ165-231145-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ170-231145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ171-231145-
UNALASKA BAY-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-231145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ173-231145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ174-231145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ175-231145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ176-231145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ177-231145-
ADAK TO KISKA-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ178-231145-
KISKA TO ATTU-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ179-231145-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ180-231145-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ181-231145-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ185-231145-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Aug 22, 4:53 AM AKDT, 10 hours 13 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
453 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A dynamic upper level trough has carved itself out over the
eastern Bering Sea and southwest Alaska this morning. The Pacific
jet stream continues to advect a rather moist air mass into
southern Alaska which is supporting areas of heavier rain along
the coast and across favored upslope locations. Water vapor and IR
satellite imagery clearly indicates a leading shortwave trough
moving through Southcentral with the main low center over the
Ahklun Mountains of the Bristol Bay region. The leading shortwave
is enhancing an already stout pressure gradient across
Southcentral which is keeping local gap winds, including Turnagain
Arm and Anchorage hillside winds, rather strong. A secondary weak
trough extends to the western Bering Sea which is beginning to
spread northwest winds over the northern Bering Sea. As this
trough digs into the North Pacific, a steady stream of southerly
flow and energetic waves will continue to lift north toward
southern Alaska, keeping clouds and wetter weather over the
region.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The numerical models are in overall excellent agreement with the
general synoptic scale pattern. In the short term, there are
slight discrepancies on the exact timing on small scale shortwave
troughs embedded within the flow and the overall degree of
downslope drying, but this really does not impact the forecast
much at all as "wet" will be the main impact across most of the
area. After day 2, uncertainty rises with the details of the
synoptic pattern as a series of shortwave troughs eject northward
toward southern Alaska. No model was really favored, although the
forecast trended toward the Canadian and ECMWF which track the
shortwaves farther west and have more congruent timing. Forecast
confidence is high.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Rainfall totals across Southcentral the past 24 hours have been
quite low in most areas, with heavier rain limited to the immediate
upslope areas of the mountain ranges (south to southeast facing
slopes). Thus far a series of fairly weak upper level waves have
transited the areas, with breaks in rainfall in between them.
Also, significant cross-barrier flow has limited rainfall in the
lee of the Kenai and Chugach Mountains to just a few hundredths of
an inch.

Expect more widespread and heavier rain to develop today as the
main upper trough pushes into the Gulf and develops a weak negative
tilt. At the same time, a couple of surface waves and associated
frontal system will cross the Gulf and move into Prince William
Sound. The heaviest rainfall will be along the northern to western
Susitna Valley and all of Prince William Sound. A Special Weather
Statement was issued yesterday to highlight the expected river and
stream rises in the western Susitna Valley. Also expect significant
rises in the Seward area...so will continue to monitor for minor
flooding potential. Precipitation will become more showery and
less widespread on Tuesday, but it now looks likely that a warm
front will lift northward across the Gulf Tuesday Night and
Wednesday bringing another round of rain.

In addition to the rain, strong winds will be a key player today
along the northern Gulf and Prince William Sound regions. An
east-west oriented occluded front will push onshore this
afternoon. A barrier jet will accelerate winds right along the
north Gulf Coast through the Cordova area and into Prince William
Sound. Have added some storm force gusts for these areas. While
winds will diminish by early this evening as the front dissipates,
pressure gradients will remain favorable for continued Small Craft
winds for much of the next couple days. Gap winds will also
continue to blow through Turnagain Arm, Knik Arm and along the
Copper River.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
The weakening low over southwest Alaska will be absorbed into the
broader troughing that extends along the west coast and across the
Aleutians. This will leave southwest Alaska under south to
southwest upper level flow with multiple shortwaves pushing
through the area. The result will be more rain over the next
couple days with stronger bursts as the various shortwaves push
through. Model confidence diminishes Wednesday and Thursday as
guidance is struggling to handle a stronger wave moving in. Rain
still looks likely but there are significant differences in how
much, with the NAM being the weakest and the others varying on
location.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
As ridging is building in from the west a shot of cold air is
being pushed south through the central Bering between the ridge
and the trough along the west coast. The cold air advection will
help to bring small craft level winds to the area today and
Tuesday. The aforementioned ridge will then build in over the
central Bering by Wednesday before pushing south. Behind the ridge
a front will swing across the Bering from the west and make it
over the central Bering Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
An active and wet weather pattern continues to headline the
extended forecast through much of next week, with a potential
break from this pattern over next weekend. A stalled and
elongating upper level trough covering much of the eastern half
of the Bering/Aleutians, as well as the southwest mainland, will
begin split the energy north and south by Tuesday night. The focus
remains on how the models decide to handle the upper level energy
that splits off to the south, and how part of it ejects back
northward and interacts with the large upper level ridge to the
east. The EC continues to bring the southern wave into the Gulf
Thursday, and then east into the southeast panhandle by the end of
the week. The GFS and Canadian solutions are bringing this wave
through the eastern Bering and over the southwest mainland by
Thursday, then either tracking over the Northern Gulf (GFS) or
Southeast Gulf (Canadian) by the end of the week.

Further west, a front associated with a low near the Kamchatka
Peninsula will track into the western Bering Wednesday, then
weaken as it tracks eastward into the eastern Bering by the end of
the week. This will bring another round of wet weather to the area
as it traverses through the Bering late next week. By next
weekend, models are starting to hint at a slight break from the
above mentioned wet pattern, by amplifying the North Pacific
ridge over the southern mainland. Given the inconsistency in the
models and wider spread between their solutions in this time
frame, forecast confidence remains low at this time regarding the
above mentioned features. However, there remains higher confidence
in maintaining a more wet pattern over much of the area through
the end of the week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 119 125 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...Ahsenmacher
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DWK
LONG TERM...Pepe

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2016Every small craft advisory in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.