Small Craft Advisory 668, NWS Anchorage, AK

695 
FZAK52 PAFC 222306
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-231145-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 995 MB LOW INLAND NEAR BETHEL BECOMES A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN BERING BY LATE TONIGHT...THEN PERSISTS THERE
THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT. A FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL BERING MOVES OVER
THE ALEUTIANS TONIGHT...THEN DISSIPATES. ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN BERING TUE EVENING AND MOVES OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-231145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ155-231145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ160-231145-
BRISTOL BAY-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ165-231145-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ170-231145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ171-231145-
UNALASKA BAY-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-231145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ173-231145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ174-231145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ175-231145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ176-231145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ177-231145-
ADAK TO KISKA-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ178-231145-
KISKA TO ATTU-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ179-231145-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ180-231145-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ181-231145-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ185-231145-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
434 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There is a vertically stacked low centered over the Kuskokwim
Delta, with a trough extending northward across the Seward
Peninsula and southward across the Alaska Peninsula. The
associated front stretches from about 45 degrees north
latitude/165 degrees west longitude northeastward across Kodiak
Island then north into central Alaska. Precipitable water values
with this front are generally around 150 percent of normal, with
some higher values along the southern end. Broad upper level
westerly flow is to the west of the low, with the 300 mb jet at
around 110 kts. There is and upper level ridge to the east of the
front, with its axis along about 140 degrees west longitude.
South-southwest winds aloft are over most of mainland Alaska.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in fairly good agreement through the
short term portion of the forecast. The main differences are in
how they handle the moisture and precipitation over southern
Alaska. The GFS and especially the Nam tend to try and create
quite a bit more downslope drying than the ECMWF and Canadian GEM.
With the high precipitable water values and fairly strong low
level jet, downslope drying should play less of a role and higher
rainfall values were preferred. Forecast confidence is near
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Wet and windy remains the headline for the next couple days
across Southcentral and the Gulf of Alaska as an amplified trough
and surface frontal system move from the west. The overall
forecast remains on track and have made minor adjustments with the
latest forecast package. Most notably, have continued trend of
bumping up winds most places as confidence increases in model
pressure gradient forecast and strength of low level jet out ahead
of the trough. In addition, it now looks like a surface wave will
lift northward across the Gulf tonight out ahead of the main
frontal system. This will push a northwest-southeast oriented
front up to the North Gulf coast which will lead to development of
a barrier jet. With strong southerly flow behind the front expect
gale-force winds to make it well into Prince William Sound on
Monday.

The heaviest rain over the next couple days will fall in upslope
areas of the Susitna Valley and the North Gulf Coast/Prince
William Sound. Rainfall estimates for the next 48 hours are 1 to 4
inches in the northern to western Susitna Valley and 3 to 7
inches along the North Gulf coast/Prince William Sound. Features
will generally stay in motion, not focused on the same location
for very long. Thus, generally thinking flood potential is low.
Will monitor rainfall amounts as this event unfolds, particularly
in the Susitna Valley and Seward areas. Other areas of Prince
William Sound can handle a lot of rain without causing any
problems.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The wet pattern continues for the next couple days as an upper
level low spins over the area with a moisture connection to fuel
it. If this isn't your cup of tea, the only solace is that the
steady rain should be ending overnight tonight. Beginning
tomorrow, the system begins to break down. With plenty of moisture
in place through the column, any daytime heating will aid in
instability so any upper level energy rotating around the trough
will easily generate showers and areas of rain. The pattern
continues through Tuesday with onshore southerly flow and near
normal temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Westerly flow will give way tonight into tomorrow to more
northerly flow and a little bit of colder air. With the cold
advection, rain showers will drop southward during the day Monday
and aid in pushing the widespread dense fog southward away from
the chain. Some gale force winds will come down briefly from the
Bering Strait region between Nunivak Island and Saint Matthew
Island. The northerly flow begins to abate on Tuesday as a front
pushes into the western Bering.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
An active and wet weather pattern continues to headline the
extended forecast through much of next week, with a potential
break from this pattern over next weekend. A stalled and
elongating upper level trough covering much of the Eastern half of
the Bering/Aleutians, as well as the Southwest Mainland, will
begin to split the energy north and south by Tuesday night. The
focus remains on how the models decide to handle the upper level
energy that splits off to the south, and how part of it ejects
back northward and interacts with the large upper level ridge to
the east. The EC continues to bring the southern wave into the
Gulf Thursday, and then east into the southeast panhandle by the
end of the week. Whereas the GFS and Canadian solutions are
bringing this wave through the Eastern Bering and over the
Southwest Mainland by Thursday, then either tracking over the
Northern Gulf (GFS) or Southeast Gulf (Canadian) by the end of the
week.

Further West, a front associated with a low near the Kamchatka
Peninsula will track into the western Bering Wednesday, then
weaken as it tracks eastward into the eastern Bering by the end of
the week. This will bring another round of wet weather to the area
as it traverses through the Bering late next week. By next weekend,
models are starting to hint at a slight break from the wet
pattern, by amplifying the North pacific ridge over the Southern
Mainland. Given the inconsistency in the models and wider spread
between their solutions in this time frame, forecast confidence
remains low at this time. However, there remains higher confidence
in maintaining a more wet pattern over much of the area through
the end of the week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gales...119 125 130 131 132 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ML
LONG TERM...PEPE