Small Craft Advisory 666, NWS Anchorage, AK

719 
FZAK51 PAFC 221141
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
341 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-230015-
341 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY
MIDDAY...THEN STALLS AND DISSIPATES BY EARLY TUE MORNING. WEAK
TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE 
GULF THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-230015-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
341 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT SE INCREASING TO 40 KT NEAR 
THE COAST. GUSTS TO 50 KT THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS ALONG THE 
COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ120-230015-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
341 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-230015-
RESURRECTION BAY-
341 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT EARLY. SEAS 3 FT. 
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-230015-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
341 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO E 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-230015-
PORT VALDEZ-
341 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. 
SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-230015-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
341 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-230015-
VALDEZ ARM-
341 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT DURING THE EVENING.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-230015-
PASSAGE CANAL-
341 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT BY AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-230015-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
341 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT BY LATE EVENING. 
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-230015-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
341 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ132-230015-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
341 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ136-230015-
CHINIAK BAY-
341 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.

$$

PKZ137-230015-
MARMOT BAY-
341 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-230015-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
341 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S TO 15 KT IN THE 
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-230015-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
341 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT BY LATE EVENING. 
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-230015-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
341 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-230015-
KACHEMAK BAY-
341 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT BY AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

008 
FZAK51 PAFC 222356
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
356 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-231230-
356 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF DISSIPATES BY EARLY TUE MORNING.
A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-231230-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
356 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT SE 30 KT THROUGH EARLY EVENING
ALONG THE COAST. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ120-231230-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
356 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ121-231230-
RESURRECTION BAY-
356 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S
OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-231230-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
356 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20
KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT BY EARLY EVENING. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-231230-
PORT VALDEZ-
356 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-231230-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
356 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-231230-
VALDEZ ARM-
356 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN
THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-231230-
PASSAGE CANAL-
356 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN
THE EVENING. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-231230-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
356 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 4
FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-231230-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
356 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT SE 25 KT TOWARD THE BARREN
ISLANDS. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ132-231230-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
356 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ136-231230-
CHINIAK BAY-
356 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-231230-
MARMOT BAY-
356 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-231230-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
356 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT TOWARD MORNING.
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING NE 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-231230-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
356 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-231230-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
356 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-231230-
KACHEMAK BAY-
356 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
444 AM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A large trough is in the process of amplifying across the eastern
Bering Sea this morning as two shortwave troughs, now clearly
evident on satellite imagery, phase together. The stronger of
these two, which is connected to the Pacific jet stream, is
tracking into Bristol Bay. The associated surface low is centered
just south of Nunivak Island, with strong southerly winds
impacting the coast from Cape Newenham eastward. The southern
stream shortwave is also supporting a broad area of moderate to
heavy rain across most of southwest Alaska this morning. The
Pacific jet streak will continue to dig southeast as it tracks
across the Alaska Peninsula through the day, bringing rain and
clouds eastward into Southcentral.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The numerical weather models are in excellent agreement with the
development of the upper level trough across the eastern Bering
Sea this morning. They remain in good agreement with the eventual
eastward progression into Southcentral tonight through Tuesday.
All the numerical models have continued to trend slower with the
eastward progression (which can be verified by satellite and RADAR
trends), but they do continue to differ slightly with the timing
of smaller scale shortwave troughs embedded within the flow.
However, overall forecast confidence is very high through the
short term as these differences can be easily accounted for within
the forecast package.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Wet and windy remains the headline for the next couple days across
Southcentral and the Gulf of Alaska as a large trough and surface
frontal system move from the west. The overall forecast remains on
track and have made minor adjustments with the latest forecast
package. Most notably, have continued trend of bumping up winds
most places as confidence increases in model pressure gradient
forecast and strength of low level jet out ahead of the trough.
In addition, it now looks like a surface wave will lift northward
across the Gulf Sunday Night out ahead of the main frontal system.
This will push a northwest to southeast oriented front up to the
north Gulf coast which will lead to the development of a barrier
jet. With strong southerly flow behind the front expect gale
force winds to make it well into Prince William Sound on Monday.

The heaviest rain over the next couple days will fall in upslope
areas of the Susitna Valley and the north Gulf Coast/Prince
William Sound. Rainfall estimates for the next 48 hours are 1 to 3
inches in the northern to western Susitna Valley and 2 to 5 inches
along the north Gulf Coast/Prince William Sound. Features will
generally stay in motion and not focused on the same location for
very long. Thus, generally thinking flood potential is low. Will
monitor rainfall amounts as this event unfolds, particularly in
the Susitna Valley and Seward areas. Other areas of Prince William
Sound can handle a lot of rain without causing any problems.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
Troughing will linger over southwest Alaska through Tuesday,
keeping rain over the area through that time. However, as the
trough weakens early in the week the rain will be less consistent
and lighter than it was over the weekend. Winds will be strongest
around the Alaska Peninsula today as the front pushes through but
are expected to weaken late Monday when a trough pushes in from
the northwest bringing stronger winds to the Kuskokwim Delta
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
Westerly flow behind the front will dominate the area bringing
light rain to areas around the Bering and Aleutians until late
Monday when ridging builds in over the western Bering. The ridging
will continue to build in through Tuesday pushing out over the
central Bering. Late on Tuesday another front will push in behind
the ridge over the western Bering.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
An active weather pattern continues to headline the extended
forecast through much of next week. A stalling broad upper level
trough stretching from the Central Bering/Aleutians eastward to
the southwest mainland, will begin to elongate Monday and split
the energy north and south by Tuesday. The northern portion will
remain north of Norton Sound and head back into the Arctic by
Wednesday. The focus shifts to the energy that splits off to the
south, which models continue to show multiple waves associated
with this upper low tracking back northward into the Gulf and
southern mainland mid to late next week. There still remains some
uncertainty with the multiple waves tracking northward into the
southern mainland and Gulf mid to late next week. These waves will
bring more rainy and windy conditions to the southern mainland
during this time frame, but the finer details are still being
hammered out regarding the timing and placement.

A front associated with a low near the Kamchatka Peninsula will
track into the western Bering Wednesday and weaken as it tracks
eastward into the eastern Bering by the end of the week. This will
bring another round of wet weather to the area as it traverses
through the Bering late next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 119 125 130 131 132 139 150 155 .

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...Ahsenmacher
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DWK
LONG TERM...Pepe

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
101 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

AKZ145-222115-
SUSITNA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL
101 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

...SIGNIFICANT RISES ON SUSITNA VALLEY RIVER EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...

SEVERAL DAYS OF MODERATE RAINFALL ARE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN
SUSITNA RIVER VALLEY WHICH INCLUDES THE YENTNA...SKWENTNA AND
CHULITNA RIVERS. RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED
TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY IN RESPONSE TO THIS RAINFALL...WITH WATER
LEVELS ON THE YENTNA RIVER POSSIBLY REACHING BANKFULL TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.

EXPECTED IMPACTS:
RECREATIONAL RIVER USERS AND PEOPLE LIVING ON OR NEAR THESE RIVERS
SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RISING WATER LEVELS AND MONITOR FORECAST WEATHER
AND RIVER CONDITIONS.

THE LATEST RIVER FORECAST AND OBSERVATIONS ARE ALWAYS AVAILABLE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APRFC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
117 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

AKZ145-220930-
SUSITNA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL
117 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

...SIGNIFICANT RISES ON SUSITNA VALLEY RIVERS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...

SEVERAL DAYS OF MODERATE RAINFALL ARE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN
SUSITNA RIVER VALLEY WHICH INCLUDES THE YENTNA...SKWENTNA AND
CHULITNA RIVERS. RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED
TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY IN RESPONSE TO THIS RAINFALL...WITH WATER
LEVELS ON THE YENTNA RIVER POSSIBLY REACHING BANKFULL TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.

EXPECTED IMPACTS:
RECREATIONAL RIVER USERS AND PEOPLE LIVING ON OR NEAR THESE RIVERS
SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RISING WATER LEVELS AND MONITOR FORECAST WEATHER
AND RIVER CONDITIONS.

THE LATEST RIVER FORECAST AND OBSERVATIONS ARE ALWAYS AVAILABLE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APRFC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
122 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

AKZ145-222100-
SUSITNA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL
122 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

...SIGNIFICANT RISES ON SUSITNA VALLEY RIVERS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...

SEVERAL DAYS OF MODERATE RAINFALL ARE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN
SUSITNA RIVER VALLEY WHICH INCLUDES THE YENTNA...SKWENTNA AND
CHULITNA RIVERS. RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED
TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY IN RESPONSE TO THIS RAINFALL...WITH WATER
LEVELS ON THE YENTNA RIVER POSSIBLY REACHING BANKFULL TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.

EXPECTED IMPACTS:
RECREATIONAL RIVER USERS AND PEOPLE LIVING ON OR NEAR THESE RIVERS
SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RISING WATER LEVELS AND MONITOR FORECAST WEATHER
AND RIVER CONDITIONS.

THE LATEST RIVER FORECAST AND OBSERVATIONS ARE ALWAYS AVAILABLE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APRFC