Small Craft Advisory 665, NWS Anchorage, AK

240 
FZAK52 PAFC 221150
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
350 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-230115-
350 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 993 MB LOW NEAR BETHEL BECOMES A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN BERING BY LATE TONIGHT...THEN PERSISTS THERE THROUGH
LATE TUE NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL BERING MOVES
OVER THE ALEUTIANS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN DISSIPATES. ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN BERING LATE TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-230115-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
350 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ155-230115-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
350 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ160-230115-
BRISTOL BAY-
350 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ165-230115-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
350 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ170-230115-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
350 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ171-230115-
UNALASKA BAY-
350 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-230115-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
350 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ173-230115-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
350 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ174-230115-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
350 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ175-230115-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
350 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ176-230115-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
350 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ177-230115-
ADAK TO KISKA-
350 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ178-230115-
KISKA TO ATTU-
350 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ179-230115-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
350 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING N 20 KT. SEAS 6
FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ180-230115-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
350 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-230115-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
350 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ185-230115-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
350 AM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

695 
FZAK52 PAFC 222306
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-231145-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 995 MB LOW INLAND NEAR BETHEL BECOMES A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN BERING BY LATE TONIGHT...THEN PERSISTS THERE
THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT. A FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL BERING MOVES OVER
THE ALEUTIANS TONIGHT...THEN DISSIPATES. ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN BERING TUE EVENING AND MOVES OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-231145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ155-231145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ160-231145-
BRISTOL BAY-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ165-231145-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ170-231145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ171-231145-
UNALASKA BAY-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-231145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ173-231145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ174-231145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ175-231145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ176-231145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ177-231145-
ADAK TO KISKA-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ178-231145-
KISKA TO ATTU-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ179-231145-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ180-231145-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ181-231145-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ185-231145-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
306 PM AKDT MON AUG 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
444 AM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A large trough is in the process of amplifying across the eastern
Bering Sea this morning as two shortwave troughs, now clearly
evident on satellite imagery, phase together. The stronger of
these two, which is connected to the Pacific jet stream, is
tracking into Bristol Bay. The associated surface low is centered
just south of Nunivak Island, with strong southerly winds
impacting the coast from Cape Newenham eastward. The southern
stream shortwave is also supporting a broad area of moderate to
heavy rain across most of southwest Alaska this morning. The
Pacific jet streak will continue to dig southeast as it tracks
across the Alaska Peninsula through the day, bringing rain and
clouds eastward into Southcentral.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The numerical weather models are in excellent agreement with the
development of the upper level trough across the eastern Bering
Sea this morning. They remain in good agreement with the eventual
eastward progression into Southcentral tonight through Tuesday.
All the numerical models have continued to trend slower with the
eastward progression (which can be verified by satellite and RADAR
trends), but they do continue to differ slightly with the timing
of smaller scale shortwave troughs embedded within the flow.
However, overall forecast confidence is very high through the
short term as these differences can be easily accounted for within
the forecast package.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Wet and windy remains the headline for the next couple days across
Southcentral and the Gulf of Alaska as a large trough and surface
frontal system move from the west. The overall forecast remains on
track and have made minor adjustments with the latest forecast
package. Most notably, have continued trend of bumping up winds
most places as confidence increases in model pressure gradient
forecast and strength of low level jet out ahead of the trough.
In addition, it now looks like a surface wave will lift northward
across the Gulf Sunday Night out ahead of the main frontal system.
This will push a northwest to southeast oriented front up to the
north Gulf coast which will lead to the development of a barrier
jet. With strong southerly flow behind the front expect gale
force winds to make it well into Prince William Sound on Monday.

The heaviest rain over the next couple days will fall in upslope
areas of the Susitna Valley and the north Gulf Coast/Prince
William Sound. Rainfall estimates for the next 48 hours are 1 to 3
inches in the northern to western Susitna Valley and 2 to 5 inches
along the north Gulf Coast/Prince William Sound. Features will
generally stay in motion and not focused on the same location for
very long. Thus, generally thinking flood potential is low. Will
monitor rainfall amounts as this event unfolds, particularly in
the Susitna Valley and Seward areas. Other areas of Prince William
Sound can handle a lot of rain without causing any problems.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
Troughing will linger over southwest Alaska through Tuesday,
keeping rain over the area through that time. However, as the
trough weakens early in the week the rain will be less consistent
and lighter than it was over the weekend. Winds will be strongest
around the Alaska Peninsula today as the front pushes through but
are expected to weaken late Monday when a trough pushes in from
the northwest bringing stronger winds to the Kuskokwim Delta
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
Westerly flow behind the front will dominate the area bringing
light rain to areas around the Bering and Aleutians until late
Monday when ridging builds in over the western Bering. The ridging
will continue to build in through Tuesday pushing out over the
central Bering. Late on Tuesday another front will push in behind
the ridge over the western Bering.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
An active weather pattern continues to headline the extended
forecast through much of next week. A stalling broad upper level
trough stretching from the Central Bering/Aleutians eastward to
the southwest mainland, will begin to elongate Monday and split
the energy north and south by Tuesday. The northern portion will
remain north of Norton Sound and head back into the Arctic by
Wednesday. The focus shifts to the energy that splits off to the
south, which models continue to show multiple waves associated
with this upper low tracking back northward into the Gulf and
southern mainland mid to late next week. There still remains some
uncertainty with the multiple waves tracking northward into the
southern mainland and Gulf mid to late next week. These waves will
bring more rainy and windy conditions to the southern mainland
during this time frame, but the finer details are still being
hammered out regarding the timing and placement.

A front associated with a low near the Kamchatka Peninsula will
track into the western Bering Wednesday and weaken as it tracks
eastward into the eastern Bering by the end of the week. This will
bring another round of wet weather to the area as it traverses
through the Bering late next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale 119 125 130 131 132 139 150 155 .

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...Ahsenmacher
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DWK
LONG TERM...Pepe

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
101 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

AKZ145-222115-
SUSITNA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL
101 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

...SIGNIFICANT RISES ON SUSITNA VALLEY RIVER EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...

SEVERAL DAYS OF MODERATE RAINFALL ARE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN
SUSITNA RIVER VALLEY WHICH INCLUDES THE YENTNA...SKWENTNA AND
CHULITNA RIVERS. RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED
TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY IN RESPONSE TO THIS RAINFALL...WITH WATER
LEVELS ON THE YENTNA RIVER POSSIBLY REACHING BANKFULL TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.

EXPECTED IMPACTS:
RECREATIONAL RIVER USERS AND PEOPLE LIVING ON OR NEAR THESE RIVERS
SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RISING WATER LEVELS AND MONITOR FORECAST WEATHER
AND RIVER CONDITIONS.

THE LATEST RIVER FORECAST AND OBSERVATIONS ARE ALWAYS AVAILABLE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APRFC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
117 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

AKZ145-220930-
SUSITNA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL
117 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

...SIGNIFICANT RISES ON SUSITNA VALLEY RIVERS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...

SEVERAL DAYS OF MODERATE RAINFALL ARE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN
SUSITNA RIVER VALLEY WHICH INCLUDES THE YENTNA...SKWENTNA AND
CHULITNA RIVERS. RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED
TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY IN RESPONSE TO THIS RAINFALL...WITH WATER
LEVELS ON THE YENTNA RIVER POSSIBLY REACHING BANKFULL TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.

EXPECTED IMPACTS:
RECREATIONAL RIVER USERS AND PEOPLE LIVING ON OR NEAR THESE RIVERS
SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RISING WATER LEVELS AND MONITOR FORECAST WEATHER
AND RIVER CONDITIONS.

THE LATEST RIVER FORECAST AND OBSERVATIONS ARE ALWAYS AVAILABLE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APRFC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
122 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

AKZ145-222100-
SUSITNA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL
122 PM AKDT SUN AUG 21 2016

...SIGNIFICANT RISES ON SUSITNA VALLEY RIVERS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...

SEVERAL DAYS OF MODERATE RAINFALL ARE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN
SUSITNA RIVER VALLEY WHICH INCLUDES THE YENTNA...SKWENTNA AND
CHULITNA RIVERS. RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED
TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY IN RESPONSE TO THIS RAINFALL...WITH WATER
LEVELS ON THE YENTNA RIVER POSSIBLY REACHING BANKFULL TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.

EXPECTED IMPACTS:
RECREATIONAL RIVER USERS AND PEOPLE LIVING ON OR NEAR THESE RIVERS
SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RISING WATER LEVELS AND MONITOR FORECAST WEATHER
AND RIVER CONDITIONS.

THE LATEST RIVER FORECAST AND OBSERVATIONS ARE ALWAYS AVAILABLE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APRFC