Small Craft Advisory 646, NWS Anchorage, AK

072 
FZAK51 PAFC 151517 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
717 AM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

UPDATE TO ZONES 130 AND 131

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-160315-
717 AM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1000 MB LOW 80 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY MOVES TO 80 NM SOUTHEAST
OF SEWARD AT 1007 MB TONIGHT AND BECOMES A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...THEN DISSIPATES. A
FRONT APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-160315-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
717 AM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-160315-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
717 AM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-160315-
RESURRECTION BAY-
717 AM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-160315-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
717 AM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-160315-
PORT VALDEZ-
717 AM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TUE THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-160315-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
717 AM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-160315-
VALDEZ ARM-
717 AM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TUE THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-160315-
PASSAGE CANAL-
717 AM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-160315-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
717 AM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-160315-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
717 AM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ132-160315-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
717 AM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-160315-
CHINIAK BAY-
717 AM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.

$$

PKZ137-160315-
MARMOT BAY-
717 AM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-160315-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
717 AM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-160315-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
717 AM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  SEAS
3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-160315-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
717 AM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  SEAS
3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-160315-
KACHEMAK BAY-
717 AM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

096 
FZAK51 PAFC 152255
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
255 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-161145-
255 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1005 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTHEAST OF SEWARD WILL BECOME A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...THEN
DISSIPATE BY TUE EVENING. A WEATHER FRONT WILL ENTER THE
SOUTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA TUE EVENING AND MOVE TO THE CENTRAL GULF
BY WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-161145-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
255 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ120-161145-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
255 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-161145-
RESURRECTION BAY-
255 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-161145-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
255 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-161145-
PORT VALDEZ-
255 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-161145-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
255 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-161145-
VALDEZ ARM-
255 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-161145-
PASSAGE CANAL-
255 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-161145-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
255 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-161145-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
255 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-161145-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
255 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ136-161145-
CHINIAK BAY-
255 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 1 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-161145-
MARMOT BAY-
255 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-161145-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
255 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-161145-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
255 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-161145-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
255 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-161145-
KACHEMAK BAY-
255 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
302 PM AKDT SUN AUG 14 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
All of southern Alaska's active weather continues to be driven
around a vertically stacked low centered just off the east coast
of Kodiak Island this afternoon. Compared to yesterday, the cloud
shield associated with the low has quite a few more breaks. While
this supports a greater chance for any one location to see some
peeks of sunshine, it also means there is a greater chance the
unstable lower atmosphere's energy can be tapped by the
development of convective showers and a few thunderstorms. The
unstable atmosphere was evident on the past two Anchorage
soundings.

This unstable air mass is circulating around the low along with
the cloud cover, so nearly anywhere that is getting a longer
period of sunshine associated with breaks in the cloud cover are
more susceptible for convection. One of the foci for convection
is over southwest Alaska, primarily along the Wood River
Mountains. A thermal trough is developing near this area, which
along with favorable lift from the northeast flow into the
mountains has already supported some isolated thunderstorm
development between Sleetmute and Sparrevohn this morning and
early this afternoon.

The combination of much warmer than normal sea surface
temperatures in the Gulf providing moisture and heat to the lower
atmosphere, an unstable air mass in the low to mid-levels, and
added lift from the Chugach and Kenai Mountains, is making for a
very wet, showery weather pattern along the north Gulf Coast and
Prince William Sound. Meanwhile, a subtle shift in the wind
direction overnight to out of the southeast along with somewhat
increased winds in the mid-levels have allowed much of the
western Kenai, Anchorage, and the Matanuska Valleys to dry out due
to increased downsloping off the Chugach and Kenai Mountains.

Over the western Bering, the advancing warm air mass behind the
low moving over the central Aleutians has allowed for the semi-
permanent marine stratus to redevelop. In the upper levels, this
is due to a building ridge over much of eastern Russia and the
northwest Pacific which favors a stable atmosphere. Shemya's
morning sounding shows a very supportive atmosphere for thick
marine stratus/fog, with a saturated atmosphere from the surface
to 400 mb and an inversion in place from the surface to nearly 850
mb.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The excellent agreement between all of the forecast models
continues this afternoon. This is the result of the models all
handling the stagnant upper level pattern that has been in place
for 3 weeks now very well. Two forecast challenges stand out with
this weather pattern in place: how much coverage of thunderstorms
there will be Monday over southwest Alaska, and whether any shower
activity is able to make it over the mountains to affect the
western Kenai and Anchorage. The high resolution models remain the
preferred guidance used for their better handling of the smaller
disturbances moving across southern Alaska. Forecast confidence
continues to be above average with the excellent model agreement
and the persistent weather pattern.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A vertically stacked low anchored southeast of Kodiak Island will
slowly drift eastward through Monday before the upper low weakens
into an open wave and the surface low dissipates over Prince
William Sound. There is enough cross barrier flow which is helping
to keep inland locations relatively dry while the northern gulf
coast and eastern Kenai Peninsula have continued to see copious
amounts of rainfall. This moderate to heavy rainfall along the
aforementioned locations will continue through Monday night and
could easily bring rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches to locations
such as Cordova, Seward and Whittier with higher amounts likely
near the mountains. Conditions look to slowly improve over the
next 36 hours for inland locations with clouds gradually thinning
out and ceilings improving. Tuesday, by far, looks to be the best
day across Southcentral Alaska as weak ridging builds in across
eastern Alaska ahead of yet another front swinging north from the
North Pacific on Wednesday. Gusty gap winds will likely re-develop
on Tuesday with high pressure building across the region with
winds in the 15 to 30 mph range along Turnagain Arm and through
Portage Pass.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The thermal trough over the southwest interior will provide a
focus for afternoon/evening convection through Monday as the
southwest mainland remains in a showery regime characterized by
broad cyclonic flow and various disturbances rotating around the
periphery of the gulf low. Isolated thunderstorms will be
prevalent from the Lower Kuskokwim Valley into the eastern half
of the Kuskokwim Delta and western portions of Bristol Bay, with
the greatest coverage expected along a corridor from near Aniak to
the Kilbuck Mountains. Fairly widespread patchy fog will be
possible early Monday morning owing to partial clearing overnight
coupled with ample low level moisture in the very showery
environment. Showers will continue on Tuesday, but thunderstorm
potential looks to be confined mainly to the Kuskokwim Delta as
the thermal trough weakens and the air mass begins to stabilize in
advance of an approaching North Pacific front.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Showers will continue to impact the Alaska Peninsula through
Monday afternoon before tapering off Monday night as the gulf low
continues to weaken. Meanwhile, rain will come to an end across
the Central Aleutians by late this evening as a fast moving North
Pacific disturbance dives south of the area. However, this system
will then intensify as it rounds the base of the longwave trough
extending from the mainland through the eastern half of the
Bering, moving back northward towards the Akpen and Eastern
Aleutians on Tuesday afternoon accompanied by rain and gusty
winds. A rather compact upper level wave will also be dropping
southward through the Bering at this time, bringing rain to the
Pribilof Islands Monday night into Tuesday. The remainder of the
Bering will remain in a more benign low stratus and patchy fog
regime through Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
High pressure will dominate the western Bering from mid week
through the weekend. A weaker ridge will also push in over the
eastern Gulf Tuesday night and last through the end of the week
when it pushes off to the east. In between these two features a
low near the Alaska Peninsula will swing its front over the
southern mainland Wednesday bringing a more widespread rain to the
area than the previously seen showers. Troughing will then remain
over the west coast bringing more instability and showers to the
area through the weekend. There is decent agreement with this
pattern amongst the models through the end of the week, with some
variation and lower confidence moving into the weekend.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...DK