Gale Warning 473, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Aug 15, 2016, 2:55 PM AKDT (22:55 UTC)

Expired

Aug 16, 2016, 3:45 AM AKDT

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

096 
FZAK51 PAFC 152255
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
255 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-161145-
255 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1005 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTHEAST OF SEWARD WILL BECOME A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...THEN
DISSIPATE BY TUE EVENING. A WEATHER FRONT WILL ENTER THE
SOUTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA TUE EVENING AND MOVE TO THE CENTRAL GULF
BY WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-161145-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
255 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ120-161145-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
255 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-161145-
RESURRECTION BAY-
255 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-161145-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
255 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-161145-
PORT VALDEZ-
255 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-161145-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
255 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-161145-
VALDEZ ARM-
255 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-161145-
PASSAGE CANAL-
255 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-161145-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
255 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-161145-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
255 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-161145-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
255 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ136-161145-
CHINIAK BAY-
255 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 1 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-161145-
MARMOT BAY-
255 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-161145-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
255 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-161145-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
255 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-161145-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
255 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-161145-
KACHEMAK BAY-
255 PM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Aug 15, 4:55 AM AKDT, 10 hours earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
455 AM AKDT MON AUG 15 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Stacked low pressure continues to reside over the northwestern
Gulf of Alaska. Since the low is now fully occluded and there are
no longer any frontal boundaries associated with this feature,
there are more breaks in cloud cover and thus a lot greater
instability. The vast number of lightning strikes across southern
Alaska Sunday afternoon and evening bears that out. The
development of a low-level thermal trough extending from Southwest
Alaska into the interior of the state is helping to focus this
thunderstorm activity compared to surrounding areas.

Way out west, a strong upper high remains stationary well south of
Kamchatka in the Northwest Pacific Ocean, with increasing
northwesterly flow helping to push systems south and east through
the central and western Bering toward the North Pacific. The
advancing warm air mass behind the low moving over the Central
Aleutians has allowed for the semi-permanent marine stratus to
redevelop.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The excellent agreement between all of the forecast models
continues this morning. This remains the result of the models all
handling the stagnant upper level pattern that has been in place
for 3 weeks now very well. Two forecast challenges stand out with
this weather pattern in place: how much coverage of thunderstorms
there will be Monday over southwest Alaska, and whether any shower
activity is able to make it over the mountains to affect the
western Kenai and Anchorage. The high resolution models remain the
preferred guidance used for their better handling of the smaller
disturbances moving across southern Alaska. Forecast confidence
continues to be above average with the excellent model agreement
and the persistent weather pattern.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An upper level low centered southeast of Kodiak Island continues
to support showers across the north Gulf Coast this morning.
Although this low continues to weaken, there is enough cold air
aloft to support good lapse rates and widespread showers. Another
round of showers and thunderstorms is expected across the Susitna
Valley after diurnal heating. However, convection will be less
widespread today and less intense due to the diminishing intensity
of the low. A low level jet will continue to support persistent
showers along the north Gulf Coast throughout the day, with the
greatest precipitation totals occurring along the western side of
Prince William Sound. On Tuesday, showers will be less widespread
and less intense across the region as the low in the Gulf pushes
onshore and dissipates. However, a well developed front follows
quickly on its heels, bringing another round of steady rain along
the Southcentral Coast by Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The upper low over the northern Gulf will continue to slowly
decay...and will continue to produce shower activity through Tue.
On Mon and Tue the thermal trough will remain draped near the
Kuskokwim Valley and Mountains. Impulses moving along the
northern flank of the upper low will interact with the thermal
trough, and trigger isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms
in that region today and Tue. On Wed the next low aimed at the
Akpen will bring more showers to southwest Ak, but interaction
with the thermal trough will diminish.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

Rain and showers will affect the central Bering on Tue as an
upper level short wave moves south. At the same time, a north
Pacific low will slowly approach the AKpen and spread significant
rainfall over that area through Wed. This low will also bring
gale-force winds to marine areas south of the Akpen. Finally, a
front entering the western Bering will bring rain to the western
Aleutians Tue and Wed. Areas of fog are expected over much of the
Bering through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
High pressure will dominate the western Bering from mid week
through the weekend. A weaker ridge will also push in over the
eastern Gulf Tuesday night and last through the end of the week
when it pushes off to the east. In between these two features a
low near the Alaska Peninsula will swing its front over the
southern mainland Wednesday bringing a more widespread rain to the
area than the previously seen showers. Troughing will then remain
over the west coast bringing more instability and showers to the
area through the weekend. There is decent agreement with this
pattern amongst the models through the end of the week, with some
variation and lower confidence moving into the weekend.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...DK

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2016Every gale warning in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.