Small Craft Advisory 635, NWS Anchorage, AK

255 
FZAK51 PAFC 122339
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
339 PM AKDT FRI AUG 12 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-131215-
339 PM AKDT FRI AUG 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON.
A 992 MB LOW MOVES TO 90 NM SOUTH OF CHIGNIK SAT EVENING THEN
WEAKENS TO 995 MB AS IT MOVES TO 120 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY SUN
EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF EARLY
SUN MORNING THEN TO THE NORTHERN GULF BY SUN EVENING.

$$

PKZ119-131215-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
339 PM AKDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT E 40 KT NEAR THE COAST. SEAS 11
FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ120-131215-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
339 PM AKDT FRI AUG 12 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ121-131215-
RESURRECTION BAY-
339 PM AKDT FRI AUG 12 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. WIDESPREAD
RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-131215-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
339 PM AKDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-131215-
PORT VALDEZ-
339 PM AKDT FRI AUG 12 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-131215-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
339 PM AKDT FRI AUG 12 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-131215-
VALDEZ ARM-
339 PM AKDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-131215-
PASSAGE CANAL-
339 PM AKDT FRI AUG 12 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-131215-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
339 PM AKDT FRI AUG 12 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-131215-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
339 PM AKDT FRI AUG 12 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ132-131215-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
339 PM AKDT FRI AUG 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ136-131215-
CHINIAK BAY-
339 PM AKDT FRI AUG 12 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-131215-
MARMOT BAY-
339 PM AKDT FRI AUG 12 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-131215-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
339 PM AKDT FRI AUG 12 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-131215-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
339 PM AKDT FRI AUG 12 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-131215-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
339 PM AKDT FRI AUG 12 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-131215-
KACHEMAK BAY-
339 PM AKDT FRI AUG 12 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

464 
FZAK51 PAFC 131152
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
352 AM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-140045-
352 AM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

WEAK TROUGHS PUSH ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH MON MORNING. A
992 MB LOW 70 NM SOUTH OF CHIGNIK SAT AFTERNOON MOVES TO 155 NM
EAST OF KODIAK CITY AT 999 MB BY MON MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA BY MON MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-140045-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
352 AM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. NEAR THE COAST...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING
TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ120-140045-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
352 AM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ121-140045-
RESURRECTION BAY-
352 AM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-140045-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
352 AM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-140045-
PORT VALDEZ-
352 AM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-140045-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
352 AM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-140045-
VALDEZ ARM-
352 AM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW WIND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-140045-
PASSAGE CANAL-
352 AM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-140045-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
352 AM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY NOON. SEAS BUILDING
TO 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-140045-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
352 AM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY NOON. SEAS BUILDING 
TO 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ132-140045-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
352 AM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ136-140045-
CHINIAK BAY-
352 AM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-140045-
MARMOT BAY-
352 AM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-140045-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
352 AM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-140045-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
352 AM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-140045-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
352 AM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT SUBSIDING.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-140045-
KACHEMAK BAY-
352 AM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
429 PM AKDT THU AUG 11 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The dominant feature on water vapor imagery this afternoon
continues to be the upper low pressure system anchored over
western Alaska. That system has picked up, or phased, with the
system over the Alaska Peninsula. The most active weather lies to
the east of these features in the moist, southerly, cyclonic flow.
One front over the Gulf and several upper level disturbances
exist, combining with the fragmented trough to the west, to bring
widespread rain over much of Southcentral Alaska. Some gaps are
showing up in clouds/radar due to shortwave ridge subsidence and
some slight downslope flow but it looks like the radar is filling
back in ahead of the next approaching shortwave trough in the
Gulf.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Synoptically guidance is in much better agreement with the
southwest trough progression than yesterday. The differences now
are with the incoming ex-tropical system currently over the Bering
Sea, however mesoscale and global guidance are about as close as
you can get for a 48-72 hour forecast. The east/west preferred
high-res nam/gem in the short term then gfs later on.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An upper level trough across the southwest mainland will be the
first of several systems to bring rain to Southcentral. Rain will
continue to develop overnight across all of southcentral with the
main focus for moderate to heavy showers along the Western Prince
William Sound, Northeast Gulf coast and the Susitna Valley. The core
of this first upper low weakens overnight as it lifts north across
the Susitna Valley. Winds will be relatively light as weak
troughing moves up from the central gulf. A gradient squeeze is
expected to be most defined along the northeast gulf and Prince
William Sound; winds are expected to increase with gusts between
20 to 30 mph and then taper off Friday morning when the trough
pushes inland.

The Copper River Basin will see moderate to heavy rain at times
develop after midnight as a low level jet increases between low
pressure to the west and an amplifying ridge across the southeast.
This pattern shifts Friday night, however several strong short
waves move up from the gulf this weekend which will keep widespread
rain across the region.

Friday night, the next upper low center will be near Kodiak
around midnight pushing a front into the western Gulf. This system
is better organized, moving a surface low across the Alaska
Peninsula on Saturday. Look for increasing winds along the
northern gulf and also across east to west oriented gaps due to a
surface ridge building into the northeast Gulf. Rain develops
along the front which pushes across Kodiak early Saturday morning
then spreads north and east through the day. The highest rain
accumulations are expected along the coast with lighter rain
inland during the afternoon and evening as southeasterly flow
causes downsloping along the mountains.

Saturday night into Sunday, the stacked storm system tracks east
across the southern gulf. This cold core low will bring slightly
unstable conditions across the gulf and should be monitored for
convective activity as it moves a colder air mass to the northern
gulf with the main core tightening up through Sunday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2...Fri and Sat)...
Our upper level low is finally shifting to the east and continues
to weaken. This is allowing for some drying across the western
half of the Southwest and even some breaks in the clouds. The
drying will be short-lived as a fairly strong low over the Bering
will make its way quickly toward the coast by late Fri. Mountain showers
will occur Fri afternoon and evening once again, but should be
even more limited than Thu. Ahead of the low, southeast winds will
increase, especially along the coast and in the mountain gaps
through the Aleutian Range. Steady rain will reach the Alaska
Peninsula early Fri afternoon and should track inland through
Bristol Bay Fri evening. The track of the low pivots more to the
south early Sat, so this should keep the steadier precipitation
south of the YK-Delta and the lower Kuskokwim Valley. The low
should pull far enough into the Gulf of AK by Sun to leave only
scattered showers behind.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2...Fri and
Sat)...
A mid-980s mb low dominates the Bering Sea. This system will track
into the Eastern Bering by Fri and toward the Gulf of AK on Sun.
It will bring widespread steady rain as it moves through. The
biggest factor with this system will be stronger winds than many
places have seen for some time. The core of the strongest winds
will be directly N and S of the low center. Several gale warnings
are out for the marine zones. This low will help to reorient a
broad upper level trough. Then within this trough, two more pieces
of energy will work there way into the area. One will come from
the north and the other from the west. This will keep gusty
westerly winds from the central to the western Aleutians. It will
keep numerous showers going from the Pribilof Islands down through
the eastern Aleutians.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
By Monday the closed upper level low previously in the Bering
Sea will be positioned just east of Kodiak Island. This synoptic
feature tracks into the northern Gulf before filling, and
dissipating by Tuesday. Therefore, look for the bulk of the
precipitation along Kodiak Island northward into the northern
coastal communities. The Anchorage Bowl will have drier conditions
associated with downsloping with predominantly southeasterly/easterly
winds along the Kenai/Chugach Mountains. Meanwhile, the Bering
will have northwesterly winds as high pressure located west of
the Western Aleutians will build into the region through the
midweek. This ridge will be accompanied by marine layer stratus and
fog over the Western Aleutians/Bering. These northerly winds will
bring in cooler temperatures into the northern Bering, and filter
into the central Bering through the next several days. By
Wednesday a 991 mb low drops down off the Kamchatka Peninsula
resulting in southwesterly flow with a swath of warmer
temperatures and moisture streaming into the Western
Bering/Aleutians. The Southwest Alaska region will have offshore
winds except for northeasterly/easterly along the Alaska
Peninsula. On the Pacific side a gale force low will be parked
near the Shumagin Islands, with abundant moisture streaming into
the eastern Bering. The models in the extended period were in
better agreement with the different synoptic features. Therefore,
a blend of WPC, GEFS Mean, and the ECMWF Ensemble Mean models were
used through this weekend extending into the midweek.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MTL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MO
LONG TERM...PD