Gale Warning 470, NWS Anchorage, AK

464 
FZAK51 PAFC 131152
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
352 AM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-140045-
352 AM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

WEAK TROUGHS PUSH ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH MON MORNING. A
992 MB LOW 70 NM SOUTH OF CHIGNIK SAT AFTERNOON MOVES TO 155 NM
EAST OF KODIAK CITY AT 999 MB BY MON MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA BY MON MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-140045-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
352 AM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. NEAR THE COAST...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING
TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ120-140045-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
352 AM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ121-140045-
RESURRECTION BAY-
352 AM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-140045-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
352 AM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-140045-
PORT VALDEZ-
352 AM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-140045-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
352 AM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-140045-
VALDEZ ARM-
352 AM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW WIND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-140045-
PASSAGE CANAL-
352 AM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-140045-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
352 AM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY NOON. SEAS BUILDING
TO 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-140045-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
352 AM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY NOON. SEAS BUILDING 
TO 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ132-140045-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
352 AM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ136-140045-
CHINIAK BAY-
352 AM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-140045-
MARMOT BAY-
352 AM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-140045-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
352 AM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-140045-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
352 AM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-140045-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
352 AM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT SUBSIDING.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-140045-
KACHEMAK BAY-
352 AM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

864 
FZAK51 PAFC 132304
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
304 PM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-141215-
304 PM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
WEAK FRONTS MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH 
MON MORNING. A 995 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY 
SUN AFTERNOON MOVES TO 125 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY AT 1005 MB 
MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-141215-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
304 PM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT DURING THE EVENING. 
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. WIDESPREAD 
RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-141215-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
304 PM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-141215-
RESURRECTION BAY-
304 PM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-141215-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
304 PM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-141215-
PORT VALDEZ-
304 PM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. WIDESPREAD 
RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. 
SEAS 1 FT.

$$

PKZ127-141215-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
304 PM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-141215-
VALDEZ ARM-
304 PM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 
2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-141215-
PASSAGE CANAL-
304 PM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-141215-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
304 PM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING 
TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-141215-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
304 PM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-141215-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
304 PM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 15 KT 
OR LESS OVERNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ136-141215-
CHINIAK BAY-
304 PM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE LESS THAN 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-141215-
MARMOT BAY-
304 PM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-141215-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
304 PM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-141215-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
304 PM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-141215-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
304 PM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-141215-
KACHEMAK BAY-
304 PM AKDT SAT AUG 13 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
515 AM AKDT FRI AUG 12 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The dominant upper level feature on water vapor imagery this
morning continues to be the upper low pressure system anchored
over western Alaska. The most active weather lies on the south and
east sides of this upper low. A sharp, amplified upper trough
extends from the upper low center across the western Alaska Range
through the upper Cook Inlet region south through the western Gulf
of Alaska (and even extending well south into the North Pacific).
A southerly jet streak ahead of this trough continues to push
copious amounts of rain across Southcentral Alaska ahead of the
trough axis. The water vapor satellite depicts strong subsidence
across Cook Inlet and the western Gulf this morning, and this has
allowed for LCLs to lower to near the surface with fog formation
during the overnight hours.

In the Bering, between the upper low to the north and a westerly
stinger jet moving moving across the south-central Bering is the
remnants of a West Pacific typhoon (Omais). The front extends
north and east ahead of the low bringing rain and some winds to
the region, with gales primarily along the southern side of the
low across the southern Bering and Aleutian chain. Another upper
low is located between Shemya and the Kamchatka Peninsula and is
becoming absorbed as a shortwave as it tracks east to southeast
toward the Western Aleutians into the Bering system.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Synoptic guidance is in excellent agreement in moving the Bering
low to the Gulf of Alaska this weekend and then slowly
diminishing through the beginning of next week, with a highly
amplified ridge building along the east coast of the Kamchatka
Peninsula. Some model disagreement begins to emerge with
disturbances dropping south through the Bering between the Gulf
low and aforementioned upstream amplified ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An unsettled pattern remains in place across Southcentral as an
upper level low remains in the Eastern Bering. This morning an
upper level wave is progressing through the Susitna Valley, and
has been supporting locally heavy rain showers in southern and
central Susitna Valley. A weak surface low in the eastern Gulf of
Alaska is helping to enhance southerly winds across Prince William
Sound and has been supporting steady rain overnight. This surface
low and associated upper level wave will push northward today and
enhance rainfall across the northern Gulf Coast by this evening.
The surface pressure gradient will increase as well due to coastal
ridging ahead of the low, and some local gusts are possible
through local gaps this evening such as Turnagain Arm. While this
cross barrier will partly limit precipitation, moisture is
expected to be deep enough to support light rainfall in typically
downsloped areas such as the Anchorage Bowl.

Wet weather will persist into Saturday, as the main upper level
low tracks from the Eastern Bering towards Kodiak Island. This
will continue to support broad moist onshore flow across the Gulf
Coast. Rainfall will be less intense, however, with weaker upper
level waves pushing across the region. &&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (through day 3)...

Plenty of rain and showers will affect Southwest Ak as the low
moves into the Gulf by the weekend. Upper level disturbances will
interact with moisture rich unstable air west of the Alaska and
Aleutian ranges. In addition to showers, a slight chance of
afternoon and evening thunderstorms exists Sat and Sun, focused
over the Kuskokwim river valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (through day 3)...

As the low moves across the Akpen into the Gulf by the weekend,
it will spread rain and showers across the eastern Aleutians and
Bering. High pressure will dry out the western Aleutians, except
for a few showers as small disturbances move over the area. Drying
conditions then reach the eastern Bering later on Sun. Gale force
wind and significant seas west of the low will gradually diminish
and subside through the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
By Monday the closed upper level low previously in the Bering
Sea will be positioned just east of Kodiak Island. This synoptic
feature tracks into the northern Gulf before filling, and
dissipating by Tuesday. Therefore, look for the bulk of the
precipitation along the Kodiak Island northward into the northern
coastal communities. While, the Anchorage Bowl will have drier
conditions associated with downsloping with predominantly
southeasterly/easterly winds along the Kenai/Chugach Mountains.
Meanwhile, the Bering will have northwesterly winds with high
pressure located west of the Western Aleutians will build into
the region through the midweek. This ridge will be accompanied by
marine layer stratus, and fog over the Western Aleutians/Bering.
These northerly winds will bring in cooler temperatures into the
northern Bering, and filter into the central Bering through the
next several days. By Wednesday a 991 mb low drops down off the
Kamchatka Peninsula resulting in southwesterly flow with a swath
of warmer temperatures, and moisture streaming into the Western
Bering/Aleutians. While, the Southwest Alaska region will have
offshore winds except for northeasterly/easterly along the Alaska
Peninsula. On the Pacific side a gale force low will be parked
near the Shumagin Islands, with abundant moisture streaming into
the eastern Bering. The models in the extended period were in
better agreement with the different synoptic features. Therefore,
a blend of WPC, GEFS Mean, and the ECMWF Ensemble Mean models were
used through this weekend extending into the midweek.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ELN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...PD