Small Craft Advisory 618, NWS Anchorage, AK

547 
FZAK51 PAFC 061541
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
741 AM AKDT SAT AUG 6 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-070315-
741 AM AKDT SAT AUG 6 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN GULF DISSIPATES THIS EVENING. A SECOND
TROUGH ENTERS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF LATE SAT NIGHT AND MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF SUN MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER
THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH EARLY SUN.

$$

PKZ119-070315-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
741 AM AKDT SAT AUG 6 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-070315-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
741 AM AKDT SAT AUG 6 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-070315-
RESURRECTION BAY-
741 AM AKDT SAT AUG 6 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-070315-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
741 AM AKDT SAT AUG 6 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT INCREASING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-070315-
PORT VALDEZ-
741 AM AKDT SAT AUG 6 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-070315-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
741 AM AKDT SAT AUG 6 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-070315-
VALDEZ ARM-
741 AM AKDT SAT AUG 6 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-070315-
PASSAGE CANAL-
741 AM AKDT SAT AUG 6 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-070315-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
741 AM AKDT SAT AUG 6 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-070315-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
741 AM AKDT SAT AUG 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-070315-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
741 AM AKDT SAT AUG 6 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ136-070315-
CHINIAK BAY-
741 AM AKDT SAT AUG 6 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-070315-
MARMOT BAY-
741 AM AKDT SAT AUG 6 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-070315-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
741 AM AKDT SAT AUG 6 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-070315-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
741 AM AKDT SAT AUG 6 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
PERIODS OF RAIN. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PERIODS OF RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-070315-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
741 AM AKDT SAT AUG 6 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PERIODS OF RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
PERIODS OF RAIN. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PERIODS OF RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-070315-
KACHEMAK BAY-
741 AM AKDT SAT AUG 6 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
432 PM AKDT FRI AUG 5 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An active pattern remains in place across the Bering with two main
low pressure systems dominating. One stacked low is currently
centered right over the Pribilof Islands. An associated front is
currently supporting widespread showers across much of
Southcentral and falling apart as it pushes inland. A second
associated front is currently stretched across the Alaska
Peninsula and is pushing northeastwards towards Southcentral.
Further west, a second low is developing near the Kamchatka
Peninsula with a front stretching towards the western Aleutians.
Meanwhile a ridge centered over the eastern Gulf of Alaska will
linger and slowly weaken through the short term.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in great agreement synoptically in the short term as
the low centered over the Pribilofs drifts to the northeast
towards Nunivak Island and lingers through the short term. As a
result, broad moist southwesterly will be established through the
short term. However, there is still uncertainty in the amount of
downsloping that will occur locally across Southcentral. So far
models disagree the most on the amount of precipitation that will
occur, with the NAM supporting the most downsloping. As a result
the NAM was favored.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A wet weekend is on tap as a series of fronts move from the
Bering through Southcentral. Winds will generally be from the
south to east direction with gustier conditions along each passing
front. The first system, already over Kodiak Island, moves to the
Kenai late this evening with a slower northeastward progression
through Saturday. The heaviest sustained rain in Anchorage and the
Mat Valley should be between sunrise and the late morning with
more showery precipitation persisting through the afternoon. The
next front quickly moves across Kodiak and Kenai Saturday night
spreading heavier rainfall as it moves north on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A low centered over the Pribilof Islands is currently merging with
a North Pacific low this afternoon, and will spread widespread
moderate to locally heavy rain this evening and tonight across the
region. The low will remain in place and drift north off the Y-K
Delta through Sunday, keeping clouds and rain/showers over the
entire region.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

An intensifying low over the northern and eastern Bering will
reach near gale force Saturday with widespread rain over the
Eastern Aleutians and Bering. An elongated warm front over the
Western Aleutians and Bering Sea will bring rain as it spreads
east to the Central Aleutians by Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Models remain in agreement that the upper low over the eastern
Bering will remain through midweek. It will continue to send rain
and shower producing impulses over mainland AK through that
period. Another upper low moving east from Kamchatka will then
absorb the original Bering low and send more rain and showers to
the mainland through the rest of next week. Although there will be
brief periods of small scale ridging between major portions of
these features, exact timing of breaks in the precipitation is
poorly represented.

At about the same time that the Kamchatka upper low crosses the
Bering late Wed, the weakening remnants of a tropical system will
approach the western Aleutians. Models are in relative disarray in
the handling of this system. What is clear is that it will move
across the Bering, reaching at least the central Bering by the
weekend. At this time it will bring some gale force winds to the
western islands after Wed, with seas enhanced by a long fetch
across the north Pacific. Although confidence is increasing, exact
timing of wind speeds and sea heights remains uncertain.

The forecast utilized GFS and NAM for day 3 (Sun night and Mon).
After that time WPC guidance, which utilized ensemble components
as well as the operational EC and GFS, was used. This emphasized
the slower GFS solution with respect to the tropical remnant low.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EN
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...DS