Small Craft Advisory 61, NWS Anchorage, AK

623 
FZAK52 PAFC 190002
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
302 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-191330-
302 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 984 MB LOW 60 NM WEST OF ADAK WILL TRACK TO 240 NM SOUTH OF ADAK TUE
AFTERNOON AT 995 MB THEN DISSIPATE BY TUE NIGHT. A BROAD 979 MB
LOW CENTERED 340 NM SOUTH OF SITKINAK WILL WEAKEN TO 990 MB TUE
NIGHT 175 NM SOUTH OF SITKINAK THEN DISSIPATE WED.

$$

PKZ150-191330-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
302 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF SHELIKOF STRAIT.
W OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF SHELIKOF STRAIT.
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF SHELIKOF STRAIT.
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ155-191330-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
302 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 20 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ160-191330-
BRISTOL BAY-
302 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-191330-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
302 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ170-191330-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
302 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ171-191330-
UNALASKA BAY-
302 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-191330-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
302 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT E 10 KT FROM DUTCH HARBOR E.
SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ173-191330-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
302 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ174-191330-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
302 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ175-191330-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
302 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT FROM ATKA E. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ176-191330-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
302 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT EXCEPT 10 KT FROM ATKA E. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT EXCEPT 10 KT FROM ATKA E. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ177-191330-
ADAK TO KISKA-
302 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ178-191330-
KISKA TO ATTU-
302 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT 10 KT PACIFIC SIDE. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ179-191330-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
302 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ180-191330-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
302 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY
FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY
FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ181-191330-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
302 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ185-191330-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
302 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. AND PATCHY FOG. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY FROM SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND N.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. AND PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT EXCEPT 25 KT FROM SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND E.
SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

851 
FZAK52 PAFC 191216
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
316 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-200115-
316 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 990 MB LOW 140 NM SOUTHWEST OF ADAK SLIDES INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC TUE NIGHT AT 998 MB THEN DISSIPATES WED MORNING. A 982 MB
LOW 280 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY WEAKENS TO 991 MB AS IT MOVES 210
NM SOUTH OF CHIGNIK THEN DISSIPATES WED MORNING. A 1000 MB LOW
FORMS 180 NM WEST OF ST PAUL ISLAND EARLY THU MORNING AND MOVES
230 NM WEST OF ST PAUL AT 997 MB LATE THU MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-200115-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
316 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF SHELIKOF STRAIT.
SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ155-200115-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
316 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT E 15 KT FROM SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ160-200115-
BRISTOL BAY-
316 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY ALONG THE WESTERN CAPES IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-200115-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
316 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ170-200115-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
316 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ171-200115-
UNALASKA BAY-
316 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-200115-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
316 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ173-200115-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
316 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ174-200115-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
316 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ175-200115-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
316 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ176-200115-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
316 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ177-200115-
ADAK TO KISKA-
316 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ178-200115-
KISKA TO ATTU-
316 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF SHEMYA.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY FROM
SHEMYA N.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ179-200115-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
316 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ180-200115-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
316 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY
FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF CAPE NEWENHAM. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ181-200115-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
316 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ185-200115-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
316 AM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT FROM SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND
E. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT FROM SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND E.
SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

276 
FZAK52 PAFC 192359
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
259 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-201230-
259 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 985 MB LOW 215 NM SOUTH OF SITKINAK WILL DISSIPATE WED MORNING.
A WEATHER FRONT WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN BERING SEA WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-201230-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
259 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF SHELIKOF STRAIT.
SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF SHELIKOF STRAIT IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF SHELIKOF STRAIT.
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ155-201230-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
259 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT N 10 KT W OF THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS.
SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ160-201230-
BRISTOL BAY-
259 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-201230-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
259 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ170-201230-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
259 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ171-201230-
UNALASKA BAY-
259 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-201230-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
259 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ173-201230-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
259 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ174-201230-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
259 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ175-201230-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
259 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ176-201230-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
259 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ177-201230-
ADAK TO KISKA-
259 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. AND RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ178-201230-
KISKA TO ATTU-
259 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 35 KT.
SEAS 9 FT IN THE EVENING BUILDING TO 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ179-201230-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
259 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ180-201230-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
259 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY
FOG. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-201230-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
259 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. PATCHY
FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ185-201230-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
259 PM AKST TUE JAN 19 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT EXCEPT 25 KT FROM SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND E.
SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE 35 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT 20 KT FROM SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND
W. SEAS 11 FT. AND PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
FROM SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND N.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
428 PM AKST SUN JAN 17 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A WEAKENING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SITS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
APPROXIMATELY 500 MILES SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS
RELATIVELY STATIONARY LOW CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE OVER
THE AOR AS IT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FILL. THE UPPER JET IS WRAPPING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW...SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF WAVES IN
THE PACIFIC OCEAN THAT ARE TRACKING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW AND
NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF. ONE SUCH LOW...WHICH WILL IMPACT
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TOMORROW...IS CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF HAIDA
GWAII AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA.
THIS LOW HAS BEGUN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS AWAY FROM ITS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO THE SOUTH. OVER THE MAINLAND...SHOWERS ARE
PERSISTING OVER SOUTHCENTRAL IN BROAD CYCLONIC ONSHORE FLOW. A
WAVE PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA IS SUPPORTING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE BRISTOL BAY REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE BERING SEA AND PRODUCING RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE BERING AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE KEY SYNOPTIC FEATURES.
MODELS ALL INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE LOWER 960S LOW WEST OF HAIDA
GWAII THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOLUTIONS AS IS IT MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF MON ARE REASONABLE WITH THE GFS20/NAM12 THE
PREFERRED CHOICE. THE NEXT WAVE WHICH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF TUE LOOKS TO BE MUCH WEAKER THEN THE MON LOW. SO WILL LEAN
MORE WITH A NAM/ECMWF BLEND WITH THIS CENTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS BEGIN TO TAPER OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN
KENAI PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND EARLY THIS EVENING...AS THE
WEAK WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS SHIFTS FURTHER WEST AND
DISSIPATES OVER THE ALASKA RANGE. THE GENERAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
REMAINS A NORTHERLY/OFFSHORE FLOW AS RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR...RESULTING IN TYPICAL GUSTY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE COOK INLET AND THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN ALONG THE
NORTHEAST GULF COAST. A LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST GULF
TONIGHT WILL BE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO WATCH...AS IT ORGANIZES
AND MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING GUSTY GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE NORTHERN GULF...ALONG
WITH RAIN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AS THIS SYSTEM SETS UP
SOUTH OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...IT WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN THE
GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED GAP WINDS SURROUNDING PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND THROUGH TUESDAY...AND A STRONG BARRIER JET FORMING ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST MONDAY. THE LOW CENTER APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE KENAI BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN DIMINISHES AS IT
TRACKS ACROSS ALEUTIAN RANGE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

A SECOND LOW FOLLOWS CLOSELY BEHIND THE INITIAL SYSTEM MENTIONED
ABOVE...TRACKING UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING THIS
SYSTEM TO BE WEAKER THAN THE INITIAL LOW ON TRACKING INTO THE AREA
MONDAY...AND ARE ALSO STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS SHORT
WAVE (CURRENTLY NEAR KODIAK ISLAND) WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE SNOW
CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY STABLE AT THE LOW LEVEL...MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE BETWEEN 7.5 TO 8.5 DEGREE C/KM LEADING
TO SOME INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE STOUT INVERSION AT THE SURFACE
WILL MAKE TAPPING INTO ANY OF THIS INSTABILITY QUITE DIFFICULT.
HOWEVER...HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE AHKLUN AND KILBUCK MOUNTAINS
WILL BE ABOVE THE INVERSION AND MORE PRONE TO CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS DUE TO THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY BE SEEN ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY AREA AND KUSKOKWIM
DELTA BUT SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE PRETTY TOUGH TO COME BY WITH
LIGHT SNOWFALL AND A QUICKLY PROPAGATING SHORTWAVE. LOCATIONS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE KILBUCK AND AHKLUN MOUNTAINS COULD SEE
SNOWFALL UP TO 1 INCH IN ACCUMULATION. FOLLOWING THE
SHORTWAVE...CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS CONTINUES
TO SPARK SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE BERING SEA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
UPPER LOW WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN BERING SEA.
A DECENT FEED OF WARM AIR WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
BERING SEA TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE NEWLY FORMING LOW WHICH
WILL AID IN SNOWFALL TRANSITIONING TO RAIN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN BERING SEA INCLUDING THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. SOME OF THIS
WARMER AIR WILL GET TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION IN THE EASTERN
BERING SEA WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MUCH MORE STABLE...LEADING
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG FROM THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS EASTWARD
TONIGHT. THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS COULD SEE UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH
OF SNOW THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES
WESTWARD AND PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF/CHANGES TO RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

BY TUESDAY EVENING...A FAST-MOVING AND WELL-DEVELOPED WEST-MOVING
FRONT MOVES WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE AND THEN
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA. SUSTAINED PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAIN
RANGES...WITH LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION ON
THE LEEWARD SIDES THAT INCLUDE THE LARGE POPULATION CENTERS.
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...PRESSURE RISES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
PASSING TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH WEST-EAST TERRAIN GAPS...BUT THESE SHOULD BE TERRIBLY
IMPACTFUL.

BEYOND THIS FEATURE...SYNOPTICALLY...A LARGE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
OF ACTION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN
BERING AND NORTH PACIFIC...WITH MANY EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
ROTATING WITHIN ITS SPHERE OF INFLUENCE RESPONSIBLE FOR MUCH OF
THE CLOUDINESS AND SNOW/RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY A SLIGHT PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR AS A GALE-
FORCE LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND A LOW
FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC MOVES NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF...WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REPLACING AFOREMENTIONED
EXPANSIVE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF ACTION. THIS SLIGHT PATTERN
CHANGE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A RETURN TO THE
EXPANSIVE CENTER OF ACTION OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING AND NORTH
PACIFIC RETURNS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

THE MAIN IMPACTS WITH THIS PATTERN WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAINING NEAR
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. STRONGER WINDS TO GALE-FORCE WILL BE
CONFINED TO STRONGER EMBEDDED LOWS WITHIN THE BROAD CYCLONIC
PATTERN.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 119.
		 GALE 120 125 139 178.
		 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 180-185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RMC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MC
LONG TERM...CC