Gale Warning 81, NWS Anchorage, AK

564 
FZAK51 PAFC 190035
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
335 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-191400-
335 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 983 MB LOW 50 NM SOUTHEAST OF SEWARD WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INLAND
TONIGHT. A 984 MB LOW 250 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKA WILL MOVE TO 125
NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 990 MB TUE AFTERNOON THEN MOVE
INLAND NEAR SEWARD TUE NIGHT AT 994 MB AND DISSIPATE.

$$

PKZ119-191400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
335 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18
FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ120-191400-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
335 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ121-191400-
RESURRECTION BAY-
335 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-191400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
335 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 40 KT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HIGHER SEAS NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-191400-
PORT VALDEZ-
335 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT DURING THE EVENING. SEAS
4 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-191400-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
335 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-191400-
VALDEZ ARM-
335 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 35 KT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-191400-
PASSAGE CANAL-
335 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING THEN
DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT DURING
THE EVENING THEN SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-191400-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
335 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ131-191400-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
335 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ132-191400-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
335 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ136-191400-
CHINIAK BAY-
335 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-191400-
MARMOT BAY-
335 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ138-191400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
335 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ139-191400-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
335 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 9 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ140-191400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
335 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ141-191400-
KACHEMAK BAY-
335 PM AKST MON JAN 18 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
428 PM AKST SUN JAN 17 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A WEAKENING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SITS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
APPROXIMATELY 500 MILES SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS
RELATIVELY STATIONARY LOW CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE OVER
THE AOR AS IT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY FILL. THE UPPER JET IS WRAPPING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW...SUPPORTING DEVELOPMENT OF WAVES IN
THE PACIFIC OCEAN THAT ARE TRACKING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW AND
NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF. ONE SUCH LOW...WHICH WILL IMPACT
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TOMORROW...IS CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF HAIDA
GWAII AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA.
THIS LOW HAS BEGUN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS AWAY FROM ITS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO THE SOUTH. OVER THE MAINLAND...SHOWERS ARE
PERSISTING OVER SOUTHCENTRAL IN BROAD CYCLONIC ONSHORE FLOW. A
WAVE PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA IS SUPPORTING LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE BRISTOL BAY REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED
TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE BERING SEA AND PRODUCING RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE BERING AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE KEY SYNOPTIC FEATURES.
MODELS ALL INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE LOWER 960S LOW WEST OF HAIDA
GWAII THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOLUTIONS AS IS IT MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF MON ARE REASONABLE WITH THE GFS20/NAM12 THE
PREFERRED CHOICE. THE NEXT WAVE WHICH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF TUE LOOKS TO BE MUCH WEAKER THEN THE MON LOW. SO WILL LEAN
MORE WITH A NAM/ECMWF BLEND WITH THIS CENTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS BEGIN TO TAPER OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN
KENAI PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND EARLY THIS EVENING...AS THE
WEAK WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS SHIFTS FURTHER WEST AND
DISSIPATES OVER THE ALASKA RANGE. THE GENERAL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
REMAINS A NORTHERLY/OFFSHORE FLOW AS RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS TOWARD
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR...RESULTING IN TYPICAL GUSTY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE COOK INLET AND THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN ALONG THE
NORTHEAST GULF COAST. A LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST GULF
TONIGHT WILL BE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO WATCH...AS IT ORGANIZES
AND MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF MONDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING GUSTY GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE NORTHERN GULF...ALONG
WITH RAIN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AS THIS SYSTEM SETS UP
SOUTH OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...IT WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN THE
GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED GAP WINDS SURROUNDING PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND THROUGH TUESDAY...AND A STRONG BARRIER JET FORMING ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST MONDAY. THE LOW CENTER APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE KENAI BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN DIMINISHES AS IT
TRACKS ACROSS ALEUTIAN RANGE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

A SECOND LOW FOLLOWS CLOSELY BEHIND THE INITIAL SYSTEM MENTIONED
ABOVE...TRACKING UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING THIS
SYSTEM TO BE WEAKER THAN THE INITIAL LOW ON TRACKING INTO THE AREA
MONDAY...AND ARE ALSO STRUGGLING WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THIS SHORT
WAVE (CURRENTLY NEAR KODIAK ISLAND) WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE SNOW
CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS FAIRLY STABLE AT THE LOW LEVEL...MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE BETWEEN 7.5 TO 8.5 DEGREE C/KM LEADING
TO SOME INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE STOUT INVERSION AT THE SURFACE
WILL MAKE TAPPING INTO ANY OF THIS INSTABILITY QUITE DIFFICULT.
HOWEVER...HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE AHKLUN AND KILBUCK MOUNTAINS
WILL BE ABOVE THE INVERSION AND MORE PRONE TO CONVECTIVE SNOW
SHOWERS DUE TO THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY BE SEEN ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY AREA AND KUSKOKWIM
DELTA BUT SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE PRETTY TOUGH TO COME BY WITH
LIGHT SNOWFALL AND A QUICKLY PROPAGATING SHORTWAVE. LOCATIONS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE KILBUCK AND AHKLUN MOUNTAINS COULD SEE
SNOWFALL UP TO 1 INCH IN ACCUMULATION. FOLLOWING THE
SHORTWAVE...CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE PROPAGATES
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WEST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS CONTINUES
TO SPARK SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE BERING SEA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
UPPER LOW WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN BERING SEA.
A DECENT FEED OF WARM AIR WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
BERING SEA TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE NEWLY FORMING LOW WHICH
WILL AID IN SNOWFALL TRANSITIONING TO RAIN OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN BERING SEA INCLUDING THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. SOME OF THIS
WARMER AIR WILL GET TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION IN THE EASTERN
BERING SEA WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MUCH MORE STABLE...LEADING
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG FROM THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS EASTWARD
TONIGHT. THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS COULD SEE UP TO AN ADDITIONAL INCH
OF SNOW THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES
WESTWARD AND PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF/CHANGES TO RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

BY TUESDAY EVENING...A FAST-MOVING AND WELL-DEVELOPED WEST-MOVING
FRONT MOVES WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE AND THEN
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA. SUSTAINED PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAIN
RANGES...WITH LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION ON
THE LEEWARD SIDES THAT INCLUDE THE LARGE POPULATION CENTERS.
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...PRESSURE RISES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
PASSING TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH WEST-EAST TERRAIN GAPS...BUT THESE SHOULD BE TERRIBLY
IMPACTFUL.

BEYOND THIS FEATURE...SYNOPTICALLY...A LARGE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
OF ACTION WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN
BERING AND NORTH PACIFIC...WITH MANY EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
ROTATING WITHIN ITS SPHERE OF INFLUENCE RESPONSIBLE FOR MUCH OF
THE CLOUDINESS AND SNOW/RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY A SLIGHT PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR AS A GALE-
FORCE LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND A LOW
FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC MOVES NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF...WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REPLACING AFOREMENTIONED
EXPANSIVE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF ACTION. THIS SLIGHT PATTERN
CHANGE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A RETURN TO THE
EXPANSIVE CENTER OF ACTION OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING AND NORTH
PACIFIC RETURNS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

THE MAIN IMPACTS WITH THIS PATTERN WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION...AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAINING NEAR
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. STRONGER WINDS TO GALE-FORCE WILL BE
CONFINED TO STRONGER EMBEDDED LOWS WITHIN THE BROAD CYCLONIC
PATTERN.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 119.
		 GALE 120 125 139 178.
		 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 180-185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RMC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...TP
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MC
LONG TERM...CC