Small Craft Advisory 581, NWS Anchorage, AK

132 
FZAK51 PAFC 210149 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
549 PM AKDT WED JUL 20 2016

UPDATED ZONES 130 131 138 139 140 141

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-211430-
549 PM AKDT WED JUL 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN 
GULF LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-211430-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
549 PM AKDT WED JUL 20 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ120-211430-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
549 PM AKDT WED JUL 20 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE EVENING.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-211430-
RESURRECTION BAY-
549 PM AKDT WED JUL 20 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-211430-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
549 PM AKDT WED JUL 20 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-211430-
PORT VALDEZ-
549 PM AKDT WED JUL 20 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-211430-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
549 PM AKDT WED JUL 20 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE  LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN  THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE  LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-211430-
VALDEZ ARM-
549 PM AKDT WED JUL 20 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-211430-
PASSAGE CANAL-
549 PM AKDT WED JUL 20 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  SEAS
2 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-211430-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
549 PM AKDT WED JUL 20 2016

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-211430-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
549 PM AKDT WED JUL 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ132-211430-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
549 PM AKDT WED JUL 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ136-211430-
CHINIAK BAY-
549 PM AKDT WED JUL 20 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.

$$

PKZ137-211430-
MARMOT BAY-
549 PM AKDT WED JUL 20 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-211430-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
549 PM AKDT WED JUL 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-211430-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
549 PM AKDT WED JUL 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT EXCEPT SW 30 KT S OF ANCHOR POINT. SEAS 5 FT
EXCEPT 9 FT S OF ANCHOR POINT.
.THU NIGHT...N OF ANCHOR POINT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. S OF
ANCHOR POINT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-211430-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
549 PM AKDT WED JUL 20 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-211430-
KACHEMAK BAY-
549 PM AKDT WED JUL 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
539 AM AKDT WED JUL 20 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Upper levels this morning continue to show a transition taking
place across the state. The upper level low that was over the
western Aleutians has moved further north across the western
Bering Sea. The ridge over the eastern Bering maintains its
presence but continues to weaken and shift southeast. This is
helping to drive the low that is currently in the gulf, to also
slide southeast. At the surface, the main feature is a strong low
approaching the western Aleutians that is correlated with the
upper level feature. An associated front is marching its way
across the Aleutians, bringing low clouds and rain to the eastern
Aleutians. Meanwhile a deformation zone has setup across the
central Bering Sea, stretching into Bristol Bay with additional
areas of clouds and rain. Further east, the low in the gulf
continues to weaken and drift southeast with just some low stratus
mainly along the north gulf coast. Elsewhere dry conditions
continue across Southcentral this morning.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
All the models have come into good agreement on the forecast
movement of the front in the Bering as it approaches the mainland.
The NAM has finally caught on to the GFS/EC/GEM solution. The
timing of this system into Southcentral remains on track. Forecast
consistency among all the models has been good and confidence for
a pattern change for the forecast area remains high.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Despite the moderating effects of the clouds coming in from the
northwest...locally breezy conditions have kept some areas warm
and relatively dry overnight. The Anchorage bowl has stayed dry
with RHs between 45 and 50% through the night while the Turnagain
Arm area...including around McHugh creek has exhibited a reverse
diurnal trend with RHs falling through the night and currently
around 45%. As we move into the daytime hours today winds will
drop off and we should start seeing more moderating effects of the
clouds decreasing high temperatures over yesterday and keeping RHs
a bit higher.

In Southwest Alaska a frontal system making landfall along the
coast in the morning will spread precipitation inland through the
afternoon and evening hours then weaken as it crosses the Alaska
Range tonight. In Southcentral Alaska chances for rain will
increase through the day on Thursday as the front lifts through
but accumulation amounts will initially be rather light...though
are expected to increase late Thursday night and Friday.

One significant concern as we move into Thursday will be
southeasterly winds increasing through Turnagain Arm and other
similarly oriented gaps as initially these winds are likely to
lead the increasing moisture and the onset of precipitation by at
least part of the day. This will be a concern for both the McHugh
fire itself as well as for the potential for these winds to bring
smoke into the Anchorage area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A pattern change will continue across Southcentral with cloudy
and cooler temperatures dominating today as a front approaches by
this evening. While models are in generally good agreement on the
timing of this feature, there is a reasonable difference among
models on how well this frontal system will hold together as it
pushes eastward across the Aleutian Range. Currently the ECMWF
indicates that the front will stay together fairly well and
support rain across the Anchorage Bowl and Kenai Peninsula, while
the NAM depicts a front that falls apart and brings little rain to
the region. In contrast, all models indicate fairly widespread
rain across the Copper River Basin and northern Susitna Valley
Thursday.

Widespread rain currently is more likely by Friday as a surface
low develops and pushes into the northern Gulf of Alaska from the
west. An associated strong upper level trough will provide much
more solid upper level support and steadier rain across the
Anchorage Bowl and Kenai Peninsula.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
The front that has been moving across the Bering is now moving
into the coast along Southwest Alaska. By this evening it will
have pushed into the Middle Kuskokwim Valley bringing widespread
rain throughout Southwest Alaska. Behind the front, lighter rain
will continue in westerly flow through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
The front over the Eastern Bering and Eastern Aleutians will
continue to push east today leaving southwest flow and light rain
over the area. The parent low for the front will move east through
the Northern Bering as it weakens. Tonight into Thursday a
baroclinic zone will develop over the Central and Eastern
Aleutians bringing rainfall to the area of up to a half inch by
Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Beginning Thursday evening, a Bering low will be in the process
of merging with a larger scale trough centered over the North
Slope. A leading impulse disturbance will already be spreading
some rain and clouds over most of southern Alaska. The Bering low
will then become mobile and track eastward toward the Northern
Gulf of Alaska Thursday night and Friday, spreading more
widespread rain over southern Alaska. This rain will last into
Saturday across Southcentral before the low departs east into the
Panhandle. Thereafter, while the details become murky, another
trough will develop over the Eastern Bering Sea, keeping rain and
cooler weather over the region well into next week. This will be a
rather large departure from the hot and summery weather of the
past two weeks.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gales...130.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JR/LIW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DWK
LONG TERM...JA