Small Craft Advisory 579, NWS Anchorage, AK

986 
FZAK52 PAFC 202317
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
317 PM AKDT WED JUL 20 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-211200-
317 PM AKDT WED JUL 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 998 MB LOW 120 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA MOVES TO 390 NM NORTH OF
SHEMYA AT 1004 MB LATE TONIGHT...THEN MOVES TO 280 NM NORTHWEST OF
SAINT PAUL AT 1007 MB THU NIGHT AND DISSIPATES. A FRONT ENTERS
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THU MORNING AND MOVES OVER THE AK PEN LATE
THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-211200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
317 PM AKDT WED JUL 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ155-211200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
317 PM AKDT WED JUL 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT W 20 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ160-211200-
BRISTOL BAY-
317 PM AKDT WED JUL 20 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-211200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
317 PM AKDT WED JUL 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE EVENING
FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ170-211200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
317 PM AKDT WED JUL 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ171-211200-
UNALASKA BAY-
317 PM AKDT WED JUL 20 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-211200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
317 PM AKDT WED JUL 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ173-211200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
317 PM AKDT WED JUL 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ174-211200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
317 PM AKDT WED JUL 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ175-211200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
317 PM AKDT WED JUL 20 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ176-211200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
317 PM AKDT WED JUL 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ177-211200-
ADAK TO KISKA-
317 PM AKDT WED JUL 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ178-211200-
KISKA TO ATTU-
317 PM AKDT WED JUL 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ179-211200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
317 PM AKDT WED JUL 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ180-211200-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
317 PM AKDT WED JUL 20 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-211200-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
317 PM AKDT WED JUL 20 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ185-211200-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
317 PM AKDT WED JUL 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

752 
FZAK52 PAFC 211127
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
327 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-220000-
327 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1004 MB LOW 370 NM N OF ATTU WEAKENS TO 1009 MB AS IT MOVES TO
200 NM SW OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING FRI
MORNING. A FRONT WILL ENTER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING AND
WILL MOVE OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE BERING SEA FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRI.

$$

PKZ150-220000-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
327 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ155-220000-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
327 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT W 20 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ160-220000-
BRISTOL BAY-
327 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-220000-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
327 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...W WIND 20 KT IN THE
MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ170-220000-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
327 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ171-220000-
UNALASKA BAY-
327 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-220000-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
327 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ173-220000-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
327 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ174-220000-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
327 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ175-220000-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
327 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ176-220000-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
327 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ177-220000-
ADAK TO KISKA-
327 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ178-220000-
KISKA TO ATTU-
327 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ179-220000-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
327 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ180-220000-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
327 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-220000-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
327 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ185-220000-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
327 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
458 PM AKDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
Upper levels this morning show a transition beginning to take
place across the state. The upper level low that was entrenched
over the Arctic ocean is gradually moving to the east, with a new
low pushing into the Aleutians from the west. Although the ridge
that was holding fast over the eastern Bering/western mainland is
still present, it is weakening rapidly and slowly being squeezed
between the two lows as they juxtaposition around Alaska. At the
surface, the main feature is a strong low approaching the western
Aleutians that is correlated with the upper level feature. An
associated front is marching its way across the Aleutians today,
bringing low clouds and rain to the eastern Aleutians this
morning. Meanwhile, over the mainland, northwest flow continues to
bring dry air and record warm temperatures over the eastern
portions of the forecast area today, but the western areas are
already being influenced by the transition to more westerly flow,
as evident by the low clouds over the Kuskokwim Delta and the high
relative humidities in the west.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GFS/ECMWF/GEM have all remained in good agreement on the forecast
movement of the front in the Bering as it approaches the mainland.
The NAM has been doing it's own thing for the past couple days,
but finally seems to be catching on to the GFS/EC/GEM solution.
The timing of this system into Southcentral has slowed a little
bit since it was first mentioned a couple of days ago, but this is
to be expected with the strong ridge in place. Regardless the
forecast consistency with the GFS/EC/GEM has been good and
confidence for a pattern change for the forecast area is high.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Models have not been handling the movement of high clouds very
well over the past few days and this has impacted the forecast for
Southcentral in particular. Although conditions have improved
since yesterday, northwest drying flow has continued for much of
southcentral. The approach of this next front should change that,
however. By tomorrow, clouds and cooler temperatures should
prevail, but the precip won't move into Southcentral until the
upper level trough is expected to move in on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Showers are expected this evening over the Alaska range and
Talkeetna mountains as some clouds spread over the rest of the
forecast area. As the low moves into the gulf, the pressure
gradient will relax and winds along Turnagain Arm and through
inland valleys of the Kenai peninsula should continue
diminishing. On Wed clouds will continue to increase, allowing
for cooler temperatures. The leading edge of the Bering front
will arrive Wed night with a chance of rain...mainly after
midnight. By Thu rain will spread across all of Southcentral, and
southeast flow along Turnagain Arm will increase.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The front arriving along the coast late tonight will signal the
beginning of a transition to a cooler and wetter pattern for the
southwest mainland through the end of the work week as deep
southwesterly flow is established over the region. The front will
bring widespread rain to the area as it pushes inland on
Wednesday, with steadier rain continuing through Wednesday night
across the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and portions of the western
Alaska Range. Rain will become lighter and more sporadic on
Thursday in the wake of the front, but should still continue to
impact much of the region as an area of weak upper level
diffluence moves overhead and more favorable upper level jet
support becomes focused over the southern mainland.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The front will continue to spread rain over the northern and
eastern Bering through tonight as it approaches the southwest
coast. Broad cyclonic flow will continue to support a wet and
cloudy regime through Wednesday as the parent low moves northward
across the western Bering. Steadier rain looks to return to the
Central and Eastern Aleutians on Thursday as another disturbance
from the North Pacific quickly transits the southern Bering.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Beginning Thursday evening, a Bering low will be in the process
of merging with a larger scale trough centered over the North
Slope. A leading impulse disturbance will already be spreading
some rain and clouds over most of southern Alaska. The Bering low
will then become mobile and track eastward toward the Northern
Gulf of Alaska Thursday night and Friday, spreading more
widespread rain over southern Alaska. This rain will last into
Saturday across Southcentral before the low departs east into the
Panhandle. Thereafter, while the details become murky, another
trough will develop over the Eastern Bering Sea, keeping rain and
cooler weather over the region well into next week. This will be a
rather large departure from the hot and summery weather of the
past two weeks.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gales 130 131 176.
FIRE WEATHER...Red Flag Warning 101 and 125.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...LF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...JA