Small Craft Advisory 574, NWS Anchorage, AK

318 
FZAK51 PAFC 191111
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
311 AM AKDT TUE JUL 19 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-192330-
311 AM AKDT TUE JUL 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 1010 MB LOW 45 NM SOUTHEAST OF CORDOVA MOVES TO 130 NM SOUTHWEST
OF YAKUTAT LATE TONIGHT AND MAINTAINS STRENGTH...THEN MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHEAST GULF BY WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-192330-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
311 AM AKDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-192330-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
311 AM AKDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ121-192330-
RESURRECTION BAY-
311 AM AKDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-192330-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
311 AM AKDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-192330-
PORT VALDEZ-
311 AM AKDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-192330-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
311 AM AKDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-192330-
VALDEZ ARM-
311 AM AKDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-192330-
PASSAGE CANAL-
311 AM AKDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-192330-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
311 AM AKDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-192330-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
311 AM AKDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-192330-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
311 AM AKDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ136-192330-
CHINIAK BAY-
311 AM AKDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-192330-
MARMOT BAY-
311 AM AKDT TUE JUL 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-192330-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
311 AM AKDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-192330-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
311 AM AKDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-192330-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
311 AM AKDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-192330-
KACHEMAK BAY-
311 AM AKDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
355 AM AKDT MON JUL 18 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There is a ridge of high pressure aloft extending through the
Eastern Aleutians into the northern Bering, and an upper level
closed high over the Kamchatka Peninsula. The satellite imagery
is showing low stratus/fog under the ridge over the eastern Bering
streaming eastward into the Bristol Bay coastal communities this
morning. While the interior north of the Alaska Range has a
shortwave moving from west to east positioned through the Seward
Peninsula extending into the Eastern Siberian region. The water
vapor imagery is showing a swath of drier conditions extending
from the northern Bering into the Kuskokwim Delta eastward before
crossing the ALaska Peninsula near Iliamna this morning. This
coincides with the ridge building into the area, and is accompanied
by westerly flow resulting in warm temperatures for the Southwest
Alaska region. These warmer temperatures are spreading into the
Southcentral region along with the westerly gap winds. This can
be seen through the Barren Islands with reports of gale force
westerly winds associated with the stronger pressure gradients.
Meanwhile, farther out west there is a closed low near 46N 174E
with an associated trough extending through the Western Aleutians
into the western Bering. This synoptic feature is producing a
swath of stratus/fog through the aforementioned region.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models remain in good agreement this morning as the high
pressure systems dominate the Southwest/Southcentral regions. The
challenge will be the continued areas of fog accompanied by lower
stratus, versus areas of patchy fog in the Bering. Due to the
westerly flow in the eastern Bering, the Southwest Alaska coastal
areas will be influenced by the marine layer stratus/fog this
morning. The preferred models of choice were the NAM/GFS/ECMWF
except for the Gem-Reg due to being slower with the North Pacific
low as it tracks into the Western ALeutians by Tuesday. The
forecast confidence remains above average as we start out the
work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An impressively large and deep upper low in the Arctic Ocean will
slowly drop south over the next couple of days. This will flatten
the upper level ridge situated to the southwest of Southcentral
Alaska. Plenty of high clouds from the baroclinic zone associated
with the Arctic low will push across Southcentral Alaska. Most of
the area will not see any rain through Tuesday night, as heights
remain fairly high and the Alaska Range blocks some of the mid
level moisture needed for precipitation. Northern portions of the
area are the exception, with some chances of rain in the Copper
River Basin and the northern Susitna Valley. At the lower levels
the flow is offshore, and gusty winds will continue at some
locations, especially along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
Ridging sits just to the west of Southwest Alaska and it looks to
last through Tuesday. The ridge is bringing west to northwest
flow over the area that is allowing for some moderation of
afternoon temperatures, but they will still largely remain at or
above normals. This flow may also push in marine fog along coastal
areas in the morning hours. For the most part the ridging will
keep rain out of the area except for a disturbance moving through
the Lower Kuskokwim Valley that will likely bring some rain,
mainly on Tuesday. Tuesday night into Wednesday a front will push
in over Southwest Alaska bringing more widespread rain to the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
With ridging over the eastern Bering, light southerly flow and
fog cover much of the area. However, a new system is approaching
the area from the North Pacific whose front should make it over
the Western and Central Aleutians this evening. The main low
center will make it to the Western Aleutians Tuesday afternoon
with the front making it to the Pribilof Islands by this same
time. The front will then fracture with the main part pushing east
towards Southwest Alaska and draping back across the Eastern
Aleutians. On Wednesday the majority of the front will have pushed
inland.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Wednesday morning, there will be a rather strong arctic trough
centered over the Brooks Range with a closed upper level low over
the western Bering Sea. In between will be shortwave ridging over
the eastern Bering Sea. Offshore flow will keep Southcentral on
the warmer side while westerly flow over Southwest will keep that
region more moderated. Rain will be relegated to the Alaska Range
and parts of the Talkeetna/Wrangell Mountains. This pattern will
persist through Wednesday morning before a front associated with
the Bering low moves into southern Alaska, spreading rain and
clouds eastward through Friday. This will be a moist and cooler
pattern after the hot and dry pattern most of southern Alaska has
seen the past week. By the weekend, uncertainty rises with just
how fast the low moves into the Gulf of Alaska and out of
Southcentral region, but the weekend looks to improve as outflow
winds ensue behind the departing low.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning...130 131 176 177 178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...JA