Small Craft Advisory 573, NWS Anchorage, AK

175 
FZAK51 PAFC 182323
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
323 PM AKDT MON JUL 18 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-191230-
323 PM AKDT MON JUL 18 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AROUND 1010 MB WILL DEVELOP 50 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CORDOVA. THIS AREA WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD TO
200 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
 
$$

PKZ119-191230-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
323 PM AKDT MON JUL 18 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-191230-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
323 PM AKDT MON JUL 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ121-191230-
RESURRECTION BAY-
323 PM AKDT MON JUL 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-191230-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
323 PM AKDT MON JUL 18 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-191230-
PORT VALDEZ-
323 PM AKDT MON JUL 18 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT DURING THE EVENING.
SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-191230-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
323 PM AKDT MON JUL 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE AND INCREASING TO 25 KT
DURING THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-191230-
VALDEZ ARM-
323 PM AKDT MON JUL 18 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-191230-
PASSAGE CANAL-
323 PM AKDT MON JUL 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-191230-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
323 PM AKDT MON JUL 18 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-191230-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
323 PM AKDT MON JUL 18 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT DURING THE EVENING.
SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ132-191230-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
323 PM AKDT MON JUL 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ136-191230-
CHINIAK BAY-
323 PM AKDT MON JUL 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-191230-
MARMOT BAY-
323 PM AKDT MON JUL 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-191230-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
323 PM AKDT MON JUL 18 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-191230-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
323 PM AKDT MON JUL 18 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-191230-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
323 PM AKDT MON JUL 18 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-191230-
KACHEMAK BAY-
323 PM AKDT MON JUL 18 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
421 PM AKDT SUN JUL 17 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A closed upper level high pressure system over the northern
Bering...and an amplified upper level ridge over the Gulf of
Alaska dominate the weather scene. Between these two main
features a col covers much of the Southcentral mainland Alaska.
Meanwhile...a fairly weak upper level wave, associated with a low
well to the north of Barrow, is progressing across the northern
fringes of Southcentral. Compared with the past several days, the
current atmosphere is a lot more stable today, and only a few
isolated showers have developed in the western mainland. In
addition...cloud cover associated with the upper level wave is
spilling into the Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin and
helping to limit diurnal heating. Meanwhile, high pressure
continues to build across the Southwest mainland which is helping
to support westerly winds especially through local gaps.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in quite good agreement today with two major high
pressure systems dominating the region. As a result...a general
blend of models was used today. The greatest uncertainty remains
in the strength of westerly and northwesterly flow through local
gaps across both Southcentral and the Kuskokwim Valley as
pressure gradients increase tonight. As winds are already gusty in
many of these areas, it is likely winds will be stronger than
models have anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

High pressure will remain firmly entrenched across Southcentral
Alaska through Tuesday and keep max temperatures 10 to 15 degrees
above normal through the forecast period. Reaching critical fire
weather thresholds looks less of a concern on Monday and Tuesday
than previously thought as dewpoints continue to remain near 50
degrees. This moist air mass has been well sampled by RAOBs
statewide with precipitable water values right around
climatological normals (0.80" to 0.90"). These high precipitable
water values show that there is little dry air aloft that can mix
down and not too much dry air over the interior that can be
advected southward. Gusty winds will develop on Monday across the
Susitna Valley as winds downslope off the Alaska Range so some
modification of the moist air mass will be seen over the valley as
the air warms adiabatically as it descends. Gusty winds will be
seen along Turnagain Arm, through Portage Vally, Valdez, Whittier
and Seward with a nice outflow winds developing during the
overnight period.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Temperatures will moderate somewhat during the early part of the
work week but still generally remain above seasonal normal values as
the ridge axis over the Southwest mainland shifts westward into
the Bering, yielding increasing northwest flow aloft. Several weak
disturbances embedded in this flow will bring a chance of rain to
mainly northern portions of the Kuskokwim Valley beginning on
Monday and lasting through Tuesday. Increasing westerly winds will
lead to the potential for Bering fog to advect onshore over
portions of the Kuskokwim Delta and coastal areas of Bristol Bay
through Tuesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Surface and upper level ridging will remain over the eastern half
of the Bering Sea through Tuesday, yielding persistent low stratus
and fog as well as patchy drizzle at times. A North Pacific low
will move into the Western Bering on Tuesday preceded by a front
on Monday night. This will bring a period of steadier rainfall to
the Western/Central Aleutians through Tuesday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Tuesday evening, there will be a rather strong Arctic trough
centered over Beaufort Sea with another low over the western
Bering Sea. In between will be shortwave ridging over the eastern
Bering Sea. Offshore flow will keep Southcentral on the warmer
side while westerly flow over Southwest will keep that region more
moderated. Rain will be relegated to the Alaska Range and parts of
the Talkeetna Mountains/Wrangell Mountains. This pattern will
persist through Wednesday morning before a front associated with
the Bering low moves into Southern Alaska, spreading rain and
clouds eastward through Friday. This will be a moist and cooler
pattern after the hot and dry pattern most of southern Alaska has
seen the past week. By the weekend, uncertainty rises with just
how fast the low moves into the Gulf of Alaska and out of
Southcentral, but the weekend looks to improve as outflow winds
ensue behind the departing low.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 130 131 177.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EN
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...JA