Small Craft Advisory 540, NWS Anchorage, AK

953 
FZAK51 PAFC 071157
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
357 AM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-080045-
357 AM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES AS
IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST AND CONTINUES THROUGH FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-080045-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
357 AM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. S OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ120-080045-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
357 AM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TODAY...N WIND TO 15 KT BECOMING W LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-080045-
RESURRECTION BAY-
357 AM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT EARLY THEN BECOMING VARIABLE
WIND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-080045-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
357 AM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2
FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-080045-
PORT VALDEZ-
357 AM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE WIND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W WIND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-080045-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
357 AM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT OR LESS IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS IN THE EVENING BECOMING
N 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-080045-
VALDEZ ARM-
357 AM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING N 15 KT. SEAS 3
FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-080045-
PASSAGE CANAL-
357 AM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-080045-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
357 AM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-080045-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
357 AM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ132-080045-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
357 AM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ136-080045-
CHINIAK BAY-
357 AM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-080045-
MARMOT BAY-
357 AM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-080045-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
357 AM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-080045-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
357 AM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT
OR LESS. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-080045-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
357 AM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING SW 10 KT LATE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT OR
LESS. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-080045-
KACHEMAK BAY-
357 AM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT OR LESS BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
424 AM AKDT WED JUL 6 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A large upper level low over the eastern Bering Sea is the
dominant feature in the Alaska region, producing widespread
clouds and areas of light rain or showers. Water vapor satellite
imagery shows two primary troughs; a weak and elongated trough
pushing northeastward across the lower kuskokwim valley, and a
stronger more concentric short-wave rounding the base of the low
center and into the southwestern coast. Showers continue to fall
in the wake of the initial wave tracking northeastward, with more
steady rain falling out ahead of the stronger secondary wave. Radar
imagery over Southcentral also continues to show some showery
conditions persisting along the Cook Inlet and Prince William
Sound areas. In between the two main troughs a series of smaller
and weaker waves are rotating into Southwest and Southcentral
Alaska. As indicated by area soundings the overall environment is
very moist with stable low levels and slightly unstable mid to
upper levels. This is producing a mixed bag of light rain,
showers, and drizzle...along with areas of fog.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Numerical guidance is in good agreement with evolution of the
large scale pattern over the next couple days. The main forecast
challenge is figuring out what wording to use to convey the nature
of precip in this very moist environment. Forecast confidence is
above average.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Low-level convergence continues to serve as the focus mechanism
for shower activity this morning from the northern areas of the
Western Kenai Peninsula through the Anchorage area and into the
Susitna Valley. Shower activity builds north back across the Cook
Inlet and Prince William Sound region this morning ahead of
another front that will stall by later this afternoon into this
evening over the Kenai Peninsula and northern Gulf of Alaska.
This stalling will enable a continued veering and onshore flow
pattern from Prince William Sound to the northern Cook Inlet with
plentiful moisture remaining in place. This will mean continued
shower activity that will be slower to diminish than both the GFS
and NAM indicate for tonight into the first half of Thursday. For
this reason, for POPs and QPF the forecast leans heavily toward
the EC and Canadian models with generally good confidence that
shower activity will last into the first half of Thursday along
the western slopes of the Chugach before clearing commences
through Thursday night into Friday.

Muggy conditions ahead of the front over the southern interior
will mean that any partial clearing will contribute sufficient
instability for vigorous showers this afternoon and evening. A
few showers may be strong enough to generate a few lightning
strikes and rumbles of thunder this afternoon and evening, mainly
from Anchorage north.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The widespread showery pattern continues for one more day today as
the responsible upper level low pressure system moves over the
mainland. The system slides into the Gulf of Alaska tonight taking
most of the shower activity with it. Isolated showers will remain
possible along the higher terrain, but things dry out quite a bit
on Thursday. A ridge of high pressure builds overhead behind the
departing system which will promote fog development, especially
along the coast. A weak, decaying front will approach the coast
late Thursday night. Winds will continue to stay generally light
with the strongest being along the Alaska Peninsula, while
temperatures will continue to be slightly below normal for early
July.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
An occluded front passes over the Western and Central Aleutians
today, spreading fog and rain over those areas. Another front,
this one weakening, passes the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula this morning. A ridge of high pressure sits between
these features and will promote some fog and drizzle development
over the central Bering Sea. The western front slowly progresses
eastward through late Thursday night brining rain with it.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The upper level closed low moves into the lower southwestern Gulf
by Thursday morning bringing a showery regime before exiting the
region by late Thursday evening. An upstream ridge over the
central to eastern Bering/Aleutians moves eastward into the
eastern Gulf by Friday evening before exiting the area by early
Saturday morning. This synoptic feature will bring warmer
temperatures to the Southwest/Southcentral regions heading into
the weekend. The Bering will have the usual issue with low
stratus/fog as the ridge moves through the area. Meanwhile,
farther upstream a weak surface low tracks into the Western
Aleutians near Shemya by Thursday morning. This system tracks into
the eastward through the Kuskokwim Delta by Friday evening
before tracking into the Gulf by Saturday morning. Therefore,
look for a showery regime through the Bering, Southwest Alaska
and the Gulf as it moves through these regions. By Monday an
amplified ridge builds over the Western Aleutians, and a secondary
ridge develops over the eastern Bering into the Southwest region.
This keeps a warming trend heading into the early part of next
week for the Southwest Alaska region. While, the Southcentral
region has an upper level shortwave moving through bringing
showers to the region by Monday. The models in general were in
decent agreement before disagreement with the timing of the
shortwave that moves through the Southcentral region on Monday.
Therefore, uses a broad brush approach with precipitation due to
uncertainty with the GFS being slower, and the ECMWF faster with
this synoptic feature. Overall, the WPC used a blend of the
GEFS/NAEFS Means, and the ECMWF Ensemble Means through the early
part of next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MTL
LONG TERM...PD