Small Craft Advisory 539, NWS Anchorage, AK

009 
FZAK52 PAFC 071200
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-080115-
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1003 MB LOW 220 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA MOVES TO 210 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SAINT PAUL AT 1008 MB LATE TONIGHT...THEN MOVES INLAND NEAR
NUNIVAK ISLAND FRI NIGHT AT 1008 MB.

$$

PKZ150-080115-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ155-080115-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ160-080115-
BRISTOL BAY-
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
AREAS OF FOG.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-080115-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
FROM PORT MOLLER E...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ170-080115-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ171-080115-
UNALASKA BAY-
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...LIGHT WINDS EARLY BECOMING SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
AREAS OF FOG. RAIN DEVELOPING.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ172-080115-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ173-080115-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ174-080115-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ175-080115-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ176-080115-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ177-080115-
ADAK TO KISKA-
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ178-080115-
KISKA TO ATTU-
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ179-080115-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ180-080115-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-080115-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ185-080115-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
400 AM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

648 
FZAK52 PAFC 072302
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
302 PM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-081230-
302 PM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1005 MB LOW NEAR KISKA WILL MOVE TO AROUND 50 NM SOUTH OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND LATE FRI AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE FRI EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE BERING SEA FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH
SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-081230-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
302 PM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ155-081230-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
302 PM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ160-081230-
BRISTOL BAY-
302 PM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
AREAS OF FOG.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-081230-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
302 PM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ170-081230-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
302 PM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ171-081230-
UNALASKA BAY-
302 PM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT LATE THIS EVENING.
SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-081230-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
302 PM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ173-081230-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
302 PM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ174-081230-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
302 PM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ175-081230-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
302 PM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ176-081230-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
302 PM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ177-081230-
ADAK TO KISKA-
302 PM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ178-081230-
KISKA TO ATTU-
302 PM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ179-081230-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
302 PM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ180-081230-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
302 PM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ181-081230-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
302 PM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ185-081230-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
302 PM AKDT THU JUL 7 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND... 
SW 20 KT W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
424 AM AKDT WED JUL 6 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A large upper level low over the eastern Bering Sea is the
dominant feature in the Alaska region, producing widespread
clouds and areas of light rain or showers. Water vapor satellite
imagery shows two primary troughs; a weak and elongated trough
pushing northeastward across the lower kuskokwim valley, and a
stronger more concentric short-wave rounding the base of the low
center and into the southwestern coast. Showers continue to fall
in the wake of the initial wave tracking northeastward, with more
steady rain falling out ahead of the stronger secondary wave. Radar
imagery over Southcentral also continues to show some showery
conditions persisting along the Cook Inlet and Prince William
Sound areas. In between the two main troughs a series of smaller
and weaker waves are rotating into Southwest and Southcentral
Alaska. As indicated by area soundings the overall environment is
very moist with stable low levels and slightly unstable mid to
upper levels. This is producing a mixed bag of light rain,
showers, and drizzle...along with areas of fog.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Numerical guidance is in good agreement with evolution of the
large scale pattern over the next couple days. The main forecast
challenge is figuring out what wording to use to convey the nature
of precip in this very moist environment. Forecast confidence is
above average.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Low-level convergence continues to serve as the focus mechanism
for shower activity this morning from the northern areas of the
Western Kenai Peninsula through the Anchorage area and into the
Susitna Valley. Shower activity builds north back across the Cook
Inlet and Prince William Sound region this morning ahead of
another front that will stall by later this afternoon into this
evening over the Kenai Peninsula and northern Gulf of Alaska.
This stalling will enable a continued veering and onshore flow
pattern from Prince William Sound to the northern Cook Inlet with
plentiful moisture remaining in place. This will mean continued
shower activity that will be slower to diminish than both the GFS
and NAM indicate for tonight into the first half of Thursday. For
this reason, for POPs and QPF the forecast leans heavily toward
the EC and Canadian models with generally good confidence that
shower activity will last into the first half of Thursday along
the western slopes of the Chugach before clearing commences
through Thursday night into Friday.

Muggy conditions ahead of the front over the southern interior
will mean that any partial clearing will contribute sufficient
instability for vigorous showers this afternoon and evening. A
few showers may be strong enough to generate a few lightning
strikes and rumbles of thunder this afternoon and evening, mainly
from Anchorage north.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The widespread showery pattern continues for one more day today as
the responsible upper level low pressure system moves over the
mainland. The system slides into the Gulf of Alaska tonight taking
most of the shower activity with it. Isolated showers will remain
possible along the higher terrain, but things dry out quite a bit
on Thursday. A ridge of high pressure builds overhead behind the
departing system which will promote fog development, especially
along the coast. A weak, decaying front will approach the coast
late Thursday night. Winds will continue to stay generally light
with the strongest being along the Alaska Peninsula, while
temperatures will continue to be slightly below normal for early
July.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
An occluded front passes over the Western and Central Aleutians
today, spreading fog and rain over those areas. Another front,
this one weakening, passes the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula this morning. A ridge of high pressure sits between
these features and will promote some fog and drizzle development
over the central Bering Sea. The western front slowly progresses
eastward through late Thursday night brining rain with it.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The upper level closed low moves into the lower southwestern Gulf
by Thursday morning bringing a showery regime before exiting the
region by late Thursday evening. An upstream ridge over the
central to eastern Bering/Aleutians moves eastward into the
eastern Gulf by Friday evening before exiting the area by early
Saturday morning. This synoptic feature will bring warmer
temperatures to the Southwest/Southcentral regions heading into
the weekend. The Bering will have the usual issue with low
stratus/fog as the ridge moves through the area. Meanwhile,
farther upstream a weak surface low tracks into the Western
Aleutians near Shemya by Thursday morning. This system tracks into
the eastward through the Kuskokwim Delta by Friday evening
before tracking into the Gulf by Saturday morning. Therefore,
look for a showery regime through the Bering, Southwest Alaska
and the Gulf as it moves through these regions. By Monday an
amplified ridge builds over the Western Aleutians, and a secondary
ridge develops over the eastern Bering into the Southwest region.
This keeps a warming trend heading into the early part of next
week for the Southwest Alaska region. While, the Southcentral
region has an upper level shortwave moving through bringing
showers to the region by Monday. The models in general were in
decent agreement before disagreement with the timing of the
shortwave that moves through the Southcentral region on Monday.
Therefore, uses a broad brush approach with precipitation due to
uncertainty with the GFS being slower, and the ECMWF faster with
this synoptic feature. Overall, the WPC used a blend of the
GEFS/NAEFS Means, and the ECMWF Ensemble Means through the early
part of next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MTL
LONG TERM...PD