Small Craft Advisory 54, NWS Anchorage, AK

462 
FZAK52 PAFC 170000
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
300 PM AKST SAT JAN 16 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-171230-
300 PM AKST SAT JAN 16 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 957 MB LOW 358 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY MOVES TO 320 NM SOUTHEAST
OF CHIGNIK AT 977 MB MONDAY AFTERNOON. BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A 984 MB LOW DEVELOPS 148 NM NORTH OF ADAK
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW MOVES TO NEAR AMCHITKA AT 984 MB MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-171230-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
300 PM AKST SAT JAN 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF SHELIKOF STRAIT IN
THE EVENING. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ155-171230-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
300 PM AKST SAT JAN 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT TOWARD MORNING.
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT 25 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ160-171230-
BRISTOL BAY-
300 PM AKST SAT JAN 16 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-171230-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
300 PM AKST SAT JAN 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ170-171230-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
300 PM AKST SAT JAN 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING E FROM DUTCH HARBOR E AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ171-171230-
UNALASKA BAY-
300 PM AKST SAT JAN 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-171230-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
300 PM AKST SAT JAN 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT FROM DUTCH
HARBOR E. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ173-171230-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
300 PM AKST SAT JAN 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ174-171230-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
300 PM AKST SAT JAN 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ175-171230-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
300 PM AKST SAT JAN 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ176-171230-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
300 PM AKST SAT JAN 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES IN
THE EVENING. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ177-171230-
ADAK TO KISKA-
300 PM AKST SAT JAN 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT. SNOW.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ178-171230-
KISKA TO ATTU-
300 PM AKST SAT JAN 16 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ179-171230-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
300 PM AKST SAT JAN 16 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ180-171230-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
300 PM AKST SAT JAN 16 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
CAPE NEWENHAM S...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
FROM CAPE NEWENHAM N.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
N OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY N
OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ181-171230-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
300 PM AKST SAT JAN 16 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. PATCHY
FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ185-171230-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
300 PM AKST SAT JAN 16 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 40 KT. 
SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. AND PATCHY FOG. SNOW. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND... NE 40 KT
W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 16 FT. AND PATCHY FOG. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY N OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
417 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH
OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN KODIAK ISLAND AND STRETCHING WEST
OVER THE SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS FRONT IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WITH SOME RAINFALL AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN
ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND ALASKA IS SETTING UP A REX BLOCK...
PREVENTING LARGE INFLUXES OF LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR FROM OFF THE GULF
INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA. RECENTLY UPPER LEVEL FRONTS SUCH AS THE ONE
IMPACTING THE ALASKA PENINSULA HAVE BEEN STALLING OUT BEFORE
REACHING MAINLAND ALASKA. THE UPPER LEVEL WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA HAS CREATED A STABLE VERTICAL
PROFILE...TRAPPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AND
PROMOTING THE RECENT BOUTS OF FREEZING FOG ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
IS IN ADDITION TO THE NEW SNOW COVER AROUND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL PROMOTING ADDITIONAL COOLING OF THE SURFACE
LAYER...WHICH ONLY FURTHER ENHANCES THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION.
THE LACK OF WIND WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES IN ANCHORAGE PARTICULARLY TO FALL TO THEIR LOWEST
LEVELS SINCE CHRISTMAS DAY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS IN THE
POSITIONS OF THE SYNOPTIC LOWS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS. AS WITH THIS
MORNINGS RUNS...THE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE THAT THE
EC IS SLIGHTLY FASTER IN TIMING...AND THE NAM IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER.
THUS THE GFS WAS USED AS THE MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION ONCE AGAIN.
THE SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM LEND
TOWARDS HIGHER FORECAST CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE DOMAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AN INTENSE LOW IS PUSHING ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE
GULF OF ALASKA TO THE NORTH GULF COAST. AMPLE MOISTURE AND WARM
AIR HAS MOVED OVER KODIAK ISLAND. THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT WILL SERVE TO MIX OUT THE LOWER LAYERS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE BREAKING UP THE FOG OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL REGION.
THIS WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER FOR THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AS THE
INVERSION IS STRONGER AND IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR THE WIND TO
BREAK THROUGH THE INVERSION MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. FOG WILL
REMAIN AN ISSUE FOR THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ALONG THE COASTAL REGIONS NOT MAKING MUCH PROGRESS INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

RAINFALL FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC FRONT AND WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE AKPEN...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS OVER INTERIOR ZONES. AS THE FRONT MOVES
OVER THE ALEUTIAN RANGE IT WILL SPREAD MOISTURE INLAND ON SATURDAY
IN THE FORM OF INCREASING CLOUDS. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING
FROM THE NORTH WILL INTERACT WITH THIS INCREASED MOISTURE AND
SPREAD SOME SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BRISTOL BAY
ZONE...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

RAIN FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC FRONT WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY. RAIN AND SNOW
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH
SATURDAY AND THEN BE ENHANCED BY AN UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
BERING LATER ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE NORTH PACIFIC
AND SOUTHERN BERING WILL PERSIST IN THAT GENERAL LOCATION THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. INDIVIDUAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE BROADER CIRCULATION. FOR THE GULF
COASTAL AREAS THIS WILL RESULT IN A SERIES OF WEAKENING FRONTAL
SYSTEMS AND TROUGHS ROTATING FROM THE SOUTHEAST GULF UP ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. FURTHER WEST...WEAK TROUGHS WILL ROTATE
THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND OUT OVER BRISTOL BAY. AS WE MOVE INTO
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK SOME ADDITIONAL BIGGER SYSTEMS WILL SPIN UP
ALONG THE STRONG JET STREAM TO THE SOUTH AND PERHAPS START A
GRADUAL PATTERN SHIFT BRINGING THE STORM TRACK FURTHER NORTH.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 120 127 130 131 136 137 139 160 170-174 178-185.
		 STORM 132 138 150 155 165.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180-185.
&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RMC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SAM
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...JR