Gale Warning 73, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Jan 15, 2016, 3:05 PM AKST (00:05 UTC)

Expired

Jan 16, 2016, 4:00 AM AKST

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

264 
FZAK51 PAFC 160005
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-161300-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF MOVES TO THE NORTH GULF
COAST SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A WEAKER FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. A LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC MOVES TO 200 NM SOUTH OF SITKA
AT 972 MB SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-161300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ120-161300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ121-161300-
RESURRECTION BAY-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-161300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ126-161300-
PORT VALDEZ-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-161300-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-161300-
VALDEZ ARM-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-161300-
PASSAGE CANAL-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-161300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ131-161300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ132-161300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
27 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 23 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ136-161300-
CHINIAK BAY-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT
SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ137-161300-
MARMOT BAY-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT
SUBSIDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ138-161300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ139-161300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ140-161300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ141-161300-
KACHEMAK BAY-
305 PM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Jan 15, 5:12 AM AKST, 9 hours 53 minutes earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
512 AM AKST FRI JAN 15 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND THIS MORNING BENEATH A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH
EXTENDS FROM THE BERING STRAIT ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA AND INTO
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS IS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND
FOG ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AK AIDED BY ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND GENERALLY WEAK FLOW. CONVERSELY...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WHERE DRY OFFSHORE FLOW HAS HELPED
TO INHIBIT ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT. WINDY AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING ON THE PERIPHERY OF A COMPLEX
LOW SPANNING MUCH OF THE NORTH PACIFIC...WITH AN ELONGATED FRONTAL
ZONE BRINGING RAIN AND STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND AKPEN. A DEEP LOW TAKING SHAPE WELL SOUTH OF
THE AKPEN NEAR 45N IS QUICKLY BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH AS ANOTHER PERSISTENT
LOW CENTER GRADUALLY WEAKENS SOUTH OF ADAK.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE DEEP NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES CLOSER TO THE AKPEN
AND SWINGS AN ASSOCIATED FRONT THROUGH THE GULF...ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AS
IT APPROACHES THE NORTH GULF COAST LATE SATURDAY. PRIMARILY USED
THE GFS AS A MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION BETWEEN THE FASTER EC AND THE
SLOWER NAM. ALSO UTILIZED THE REGIONAL GEM IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS
OF THE FORECAST FOR ENHANCED DETAIL OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST DOMAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA IS MOVING NORTH INTO
THE GULF TODAY...AND WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT OF THE PROXIMITY OF THE
RIDGE AND THE FRONT...THE LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE. THIS WILL HELP CLEAR OUT REMAINING FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. ON SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE GULF COAST. THIS
WILL BRING A SHOT OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE COASTAL AREAS...WITH
LITTLE PRECIPITATION MAKING IT INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE DEEP NORTH PACIFIC LOW LOCATED SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND WILL
BRING CLOUDS AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST INTO
SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE AKPEN
AND SOUTHERN BRISTOL BAY WHERE THE STRONGEST GRADIENT WILL EXIST.
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST WILL ALSO SEE GUSTY OFFSHORE
WINDS...ESPECIALLY NEAR TOKSOOK BAY...INTO SATURDAY MORNING AT
WHICH TIME THEY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH. A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL
THEN RETURN TO THE AREA ON SATURDAY EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH QUICKLY DIVES FROM THE INTERIOR INTO THE BERING. AT THIS
POINT THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW LOOKS TO BE OVER
WESTERN BRISTOL BAY...BUT WITH THE FAST MOVING TROUGH ANY
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY MINOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW APPROACHING THE AKPEN WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER OVER THE REGION INTO SATURDAY...MAINLY WITH GALE-STORM
FORCE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS. WINDS OVER THESE
AREAS INCREASED OVERNIGHT. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER
TO STORM FORCE IN THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE AKPEN THIS
MORNING...THEN PERSIST INTO THE LATE EVENING. WINDS THROUGHOUT
THE AREA WILL THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO DIVE BACK INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

A VERY STRONG JET STREAM STRETCHING ZONALLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PACIFIC BETWEEN 30N AND 40N WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
A BROAD VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CENTERED SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AROUND 50N. A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL ROTATE UP
AROUND IT AND INTO THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN GULF ON SUNDAY. THE LOW
WILL THEN WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY FILL AS IT ROTATES THROUGH THE
EASTERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL GULF MONDAY.
IMPACT WISE THE SYSTEM WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS AND
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING AND THEN SPREADING INTO PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AND OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WHILE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST SHOULD PREDOMINATELY
FALL AS RAIN WILL NEED TO WATCH THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA INCLUDING THE MATANUSKA VALLEY...ANCHORAGE AREA AND
SOUTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY FOR MESSIER MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES
MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS THE REMNANT TROUGH
ROTATES OVERHEAD.

A SIMILAR LARGER SCALE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK WITH A NEW STRONGER LOW FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
TRACKING UP TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN GULF AND BECOMING VERTICALLY
STACKED IN THAT GENERAL LOCATION. WEAKENING FRONTS AND TROUGHS
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT UP AND FALL APART AS THEY CROSS THE GULF.

FURTHER OUT WEST...TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
BROAD UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST ALASKA ACROSS
BRISTOL BAY....THOUGH NONE LOOK PARTICULARLY WELL DEFINED. A
SURFACE LOW WEST OF SHEMYA SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DRIFT WEST AND
FILL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER AIR FLOWING INTO THE BERING
AND ALEUTIANS FROM BOTH THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST OUT OF
THE ARCTIC AND INTO RUSSIA MONDAY AND THEN INTO THE WESTERN BERING
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A DEEPENING UPPER LOW.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY 111.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 150 155 165 132 138.
		 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 185 181 180.
         GALE WARNING 185 181 180 179 178 177 173 172 171 170 160
		 119 120 130 131 136 167.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...JER

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2016Every gale warning in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.