Small Craft Advisory 529, NWS Anchorage, AK

371 
FZAK52 PAFC 302258
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
258 PM AKDT THU JUN 30 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-011130-
258 PM AKDT THU JUN 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BERING THROUGH THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH
FRI AFTERNOON. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA TONIGHT
WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-011130-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
258 PM AKDT THU JUN 30 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ155-011130-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
258 PM AKDT THU JUN 30 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT EXCEPT W 25 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ160-011130-
BRISTOL BAY-
258 PM AKDT THU JUN 30 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ165-011130-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
258 PM AKDT THU JUN 30 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE 10 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...W WIND 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT EXCEPT W 20 KT FROM PORT MOLLER
E. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ170-011130-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
258 PM AKDT THU JUN 30 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ171-011130-
UNALASKA BAY-
258 PM AKDT THU JUN 30 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-011130-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
258 PM AKDT THU JUN 30 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ173-011130-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
258 PM AKDT THU JUN 30 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ174-011130-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
258 PM AKDT THU JUN 30 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ175-011130-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
258 PM AKDT THU JUN 30 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ176-011130-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
258 PM AKDT THU JUN 30 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ177-011130-
ADAK TO KISKA-
258 PM AKDT THU JUN 30 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ178-011130-
KISKA TO ATTU-
258 PM AKDT THU JUN 30 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ179-011130-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
258 PM AKDT THU JUN 30 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ180-011130-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
258 PM AKDT THU JUN 30 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ181-011130-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
258 PM AKDT THU JUN 30 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ185-011130-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
258 PM AKDT THU JUN 30 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E 20 KT
W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E 20 KT W
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
423 PM AKDT WED JUN 29 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There is an upper level low over the Gulf of Alaska with several
vort-maxes rotating around this low. One vort-max is over
southwest Alaska moving west while another another is over the
Alaska Panhandle and a strong vort-max to the southeast of Haida
Gwaii. There is an east-west oriented upper level ridge over
central Alaska. Another upper level low is over the western
Aleutians and the southwest Bering Sea. A front associated with
this low stretches northeast from Dutch Harbor into northeast
Russia. There are some clouds and diurnally enhanced showers
across southern Alaska.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models agree for the most part on the synoptic
situation, but have some important differences in dealing with
the timing and strength of various vort-maxes. The GFS and
especially the NAM have are stronger and faster with the first
impulse moving into south central Alaska Thursday morning. The
ECMWF is slower and weaker, and the Canadian has almost nothing.
The second and stronger system that is due in Thursday night and
Friday morning is better agreed upon, but the Canadian and the
ECMWF are slower to exit the precipitation. There is fairly high
confidence that much of southern Alaska will have a significant
precipitation event Thursday into Friday (and into Saturday for
southwest Alaska). There is less confidence in the timing.
Therefore the forecast confidence is below normal for timing, but
above normal that this will be a fairly wet event.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
There is an upper level shortwave pushing through that will exit
the region this evening. This will kick-off a few isolated
thunderstorms over the Alaska Range, Talkeetnas and the inland
areas for the Western Kenai this evening. While, there is
subsidence behind this feature resulting in more stable conditions.
Meanwhile, the models have the vertically stacked low in the Gulf
sending two significant easterly shortwaves through the region.
The first shortwave moves through the AOR starting by Thursday
afternoon. This will bring widespread wetting rains starting in
the Copper River Basin spreading west. Look for isolated thunderstorms
associated with the shortwave along the Alaska Range extending
through the Talkeetnas into the Chugach and the Kenai Mountains
Thursday afternoon. The temperatures will be cooler as the precipitation
reaches the Anchorage Bowl by Thursday afternoon. This will start the
beginning of widespread rain throughout the region accompanied by periods
of heavy rain from Thursday night through Friday as the next easterly
shortwave moves into region. Therefore, with the widespread rainfall
look for increased possibility of rapid rises in small creeks, and
possible minor urban street flooding. We are keeping a close watch
on this upcoming heavy rain scenario, and have issued a special weather
statement for this upcoming heavy rain event.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The upper level low over the Gulf will keep unstable easterly flow
over Southwest Alaska through Saturday. Multiple shortwaves will
rotate around the low bringing showers to the area. The combination
of an unstable atmosphere, diurnal heating, and shortwaves moving
through will help to kick off thunderstorms in the afternoon and
evening hours through Friday. The heaviest rain will come from two
shortwaves moving through Thursday evening and Friday morning. The
main corridor for the rain will be from the Kuskokwim Valley south
towards Bristol Bay and east towards the Alaska and Aleutian
Ranges.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The stationary front that sits in the Central Bering just west of
the Pribilof Islands and stretches south over the Eastern
Aleutians will diminish but linger on through Thursday then
dissipate by Thursday night. To the west of the front a low sits
west of the Western Aleutians and is slowly moving east. It will
bring showers to the Central and Western Aleutians into the weekend
as it moves through.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The extended forecast beginning this weekend will start off with
two lows, one weakening over the western Bering Sea, and another
developing over the Gulf of Alaska on Saturday. Easterly shortwave
troughs rotating around the Gulf low will be supporting rain
across much of southern Alaska, some possibly heavy at times. The
first of these waves will rotate south and west through the Kenai
Peninsula and Cook Inlet region Friday. The second wave will track
through the southwest Mainland while weakening Saturday, and
quickly push south over Kodiak Island by early Sunday morning.
However, this is where confidence drops off significantly, as the
model solutions diverge greatly with regards to the secondary wave
rotating around the Gulf low. Either way, expect more diurnally
driven showers over parts of the southern mainland, as the Gulf
low begins to track further east. The warmest temperatures will
likely be west of the Alaska Range with moderate temps across
Southcentral Alaska. By early next week, weak ridging is expected
to build in behind the departing Gulf low with continued inland
showers driven by diurnal heating.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...TP