Small Craft Advisory 513, NWS Anchorage, AK

219 
FZAK51 PAFC 241149
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
349 AM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-250100-
349 AM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL BECOME A
1005 MB LOW 40 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK FRI AFTERNOON. THE LOW
WILL THEN MOVE TO 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK AT 1005 MB SAT
AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN TO 1010 MB IN THE SAME LOCATION LATE
SAT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
THROUGH SAT.

$$

PKZ119-250100-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
349 AM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ120-250100-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
349 AM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ121-250100-
RESURRECTION BAY-
349 AM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2
FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-250100-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
349 AM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-250100-
PORT VALDEZ-
349 AM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-250100-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
349 AM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW WIND 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW WIND 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-250100-
VALDEZ ARM-
349 AM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW WIND 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-250100-
PASSAGE CANAL-
349 AM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-250100-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
349 AM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-250100-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
349 AM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ132-250100-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
349 AM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ136-250100-
CHINIAK BAY-
349 AM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-250100-
MARMOT BAY-
349 AM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-250100-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
349 AM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-250100-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
349 AM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-250100-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
349 AM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-250100-
KACHEMAK BAY-
349 AM AKDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
514 AM AKDT THU JUN 23 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Water vapor imagery this morning shows a progressive trough of
low pressure just to the west of Nunivak Island. This trough has
made steady eastward progress throughout the overnight period
which has begun to displace the high pressure that has brought
clear skies and warm weather to much of the state. Infrared
satellite and remaining visible satellite show clouds quickly
moving from Southwest Alaska toward Southcentral and Interior
portions of Alaska. A potent shortwave near Siberia has begun to
interact with the trough over the far Eastern Bering Sea and
should help to amplify this trough during the day. High pressure
over the Western Bering has begun to amplify in response to the
aforementioned trough over the far Eastern Bering Sea and will
continue to bring a solid low stratus deck to much of the Bering
and some patchy fog.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in pretty good agreement with the overall propagation
of the trough from west to east across Alaska during the coming
days. Numerical guidance is much more aggressive in regards to
instability on Friday and Saturday afternoon with the most current
runs which appears to be the result of cooling at 500 mb. This is
likely attributed to a strong shortwave over Siberia that is
expected to drop rapidly south on Friday. There is some disagreement
to exactly how much instability will develop as the NAM tends to
be very aggressive and the GFS tends to be a bit shy. A blend of
the NAM/GFS was used for updates to the newest forecast package.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An upper level ridge currently centered over Southcentral will
once again bring a day of warm temperatures and thin cirrus clouds
to especially the copper river basin. However, the ridge will
quickly push to the east today with an upper level wave following
quickly on its heels. As a result, increasing clouds are
anticipated across eastern portions of southcentral by this
afternoon and evening. In addition, enough moisture and
instability is associated with this wave to support the
development of afternoon convection and isolated thunderstorms
along the Talkeetna Mountains and Alaska Range by this evening.
However, there is currently some uncertainty in the intensity of
convection.

Clouds are anticipated across much of the region by Friday as the
ridge pushes well to the east and an upper level low becomes
established in the Gulf of Alaska. Associated upper level waves
will likely result in another round of showers and thunderstorms
along the Alaska Range and Talkeetna Mountains Friday. However,
with persistent cloud cover in place and slightly cooler
temperatures, thunderstorm coverage could be more limited Friday
but there is still some uncertainty.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

An upper level ridge will provide another day of generally thin
cirrus clouds and warm temperatures across much of the Copper
River Basin. The development of a weak interior trough will
provide just enough forcing for some gusty southeast winds in the
afternoon, which will support red flag warning conditions for the
Copper River Basin. By late this evening, temperatures should cool
enough for Red Flag Warning conditions to abate.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

As the upper level low moves over southwest Alaska over the next
couple of days, it will be accompanied by decent moisture through
the column. Vortmaxes moving along the eastern flank of the low
will interact with this moisture and bring showers to the region.
Over the Kuskokwim valley some of these will also develop into
afternoon and evening thunderstorms today and Fri.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

Moisture around the upper low will interact with upper level
shortwaves to bring rain and showers to the eastern Bering and
Aleutians through Fri. Northwest flow over the rest of the Bering
will allow fog to persist and slowly move east during the same
period.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The long range pattern will continue the progressive movement of
the upper level systems traversing Alaska into the weekend,
followed by a slowing of the pattern to start off the upcoming
work week. A high amplitude ridge will build over much of the
Bering Saturday. By the weekend, the upper low over the Gulf will
stall out there as it runs into the semi-permanent upper level
ridge over the Canadian Rockies, which in turn will halt the
eastward movement of the Bering ridge. For Southcentral, this
pattern evolution will favor one with convection and precipitation
potential on most days, especially on Saturday as the low passes
by. This potential will also persist through early next week for
coastal locations along the Gulf and Kodiak Island. The driest
weather throughout the Saturday through Tuesday time frame will be
towards the Alaska Range. For the Southwest Mainland, dry and warm
conditions are expected as the upper ridge builds in through
Tuesday. Over the Bering, the persistent upper ridge will promote
an environment favorable to the development of widespread fog and
low stratus through the weekend. The next organized weather
system will enter the western Bering late Sunday into Monday
morning, bringing unsettled weather back to the area. It will
move through the Central Bering by Tuesday.

Ample daytime heating over interior Alaska along with the
movement of the next upper level trough over Eastern Russia will
help push the northern portion of the Bering ridge over mainland
Alaska next week. The southern portion of the ridge will remain
stuck west of the stalled out upper low over the Gulf, effectively
making the ridge positively tilted. Beyond that, the models are
now trying to keep the cut-off upper low rotating around the gulf
through the middle of next week, which seems to phase with a
disturbance in the polar jet. There is still some disagreement
between the models regarding the finer details and evolution of
this feature, which has resulted in lower forecast confidence
for the middle of next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...Red Flag Warning...Zone 141.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ELN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...TP