Gale Warning 440, NWS Anchorage, AK

154 
FZAK52 PAFC 240013
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
413 PM AKDT THU JUN 23 2016

UPDATED ZONE 171

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST
ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-241315-
413 PM AKDT THU JUN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA AND BRISTOL BAY WILL MOVE
INLAND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE BERING SEA THROUGH SAT MORNING. A FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SAT AFTERNOON.


$$

PKZ150-241315-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
413 PM AKDT THU JUN 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ155-241315-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
413 PM AKDT THU JUN 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ160-241315-
BRISTOL BAY-
413 PM AKDT THU JUN 23 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ165-241315-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
413 PM AKDT THU JUN 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ170-241315-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
413 PM AKDT THU JUN 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ171-241315-
UNALASKA BAY-
413 PM AKDT THU JUN 23 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT DEVELOPING THROUGH THE
EVENING. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT.
AREAS OF FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-241315-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
413 PM AKDT THU JUN 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ173-241315-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
413 PM AKDT THU JUN 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT.
AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ174-241315-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
413 PM AKDT THU JUN 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ175-241315-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
413 PM AKDT THU JUN 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ176-241315-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
413 PM AKDT THU JUN 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ177-241315-
ADAK TO KISKA-
413 PM AKDT THU JUN 23 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ178-241315-
KISKA TO ATTU-
413 PM AKDT THU JUN 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ179-241315-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
413 PM AKDT THU JUN 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ180-241315-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
413 PM AKDT THU JUN 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ181-241315-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
413 PM AKDT THU JUN 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ185-241315-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
413 PM AKDT THU JUN 23 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
514 AM AKDT THU JUN 23 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Water vapor imagery this morning shows a progressive trough of
low pressure just to the west of Nunivak Island. This trough has
made steady eastward progress throughout the overnight period
which has begun to displace the high pressure that has brought
clear skies and warm weather to much of the state. Infrared
satellite and remaining visible satellite show clouds quickly
moving from Southwest Alaska toward Southcentral and Interior
portions of Alaska. A potent shortwave near Siberia has begun to
interact with the trough over the far Eastern Bering Sea and
should help to amplify this trough during the day. High pressure
over the Western Bering has begun to amplify in response to the
aforementioned trough over the far Eastern Bering Sea and will
continue to bring a solid low stratus deck to much of the Bering
and some patchy fog.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in pretty good agreement with the overall propagation
of the trough from west to east across Alaska during the coming
days. Numerical guidance is much more aggressive in regards to
instability on Friday and Saturday afternoon with the most current
runs which appears to be the result of cooling at 500 mb. This is
likely attributed to a strong shortwave over Siberia that is
expected to drop rapidly south on Friday. There is some disagreement
to exactly how much instability will develop as the NAM tends to
be very aggressive and the GFS tends to be a bit shy. A blend of
the NAM/GFS was used for updates to the newest forecast package.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An upper level ridge currently centered over Southcentral will
once again bring a day of warm temperatures and thin cirrus clouds
to especially the copper river basin. However, the ridge will
quickly push to the east today with an upper level wave following
quickly on its heels. As a result, increasing clouds are
anticipated across eastern portions of southcentral by this
afternoon and evening. In addition, enough moisture and
instability is associated with this wave to support the
development of afternoon convection and isolated thunderstorms
along the Talkeetna Mountains and Alaska Range by this evening.
However, there is currently some uncertainty in the intensity of
convection.

Clouds are anticipated across much of the region by Friday as the
ridge pushes well to the east and an upper level low becomes
established in the Gulf of Alaska. Associated upper level waves
will likely result in another round of showers and thunderstorms
along the Alaska Range and Talkeetna Mountains Friday. However,
with persistent cloud cover in place and slightly cooler
temperatures, thunderstorm coverage could be more limited Friday
but there is still some uncertainty.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

An upper level ridge will provide another day of generally thin
cirrus clouds and warm temperatures across much of the Copper
River Basin. The development of a weak interior trough will
provide just enough forcing for some gusty southeast winds in the
afternoon, which will support red flag warning conditions for the
Copper River Basin. By late this evening, temperatures should cool
enough for Red Flag Warning conditions to abate.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

As the upper level low moves over southwest Alaska over the next
couple of days, it will be accompanied by decent moisture through
the column. Vortmaxes moving along the eastern flank of the low
will interact with this moisture and bring showers to the region.
Over the Kuskokwim valley some of these will also develop into
afternoon and evening thunderstorms today and Fri.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

Moisture around the upper low will interact with upper level
shortwaves to bring rain and showers to the eastern Bering and
Aleutians through Fri. Northwest flow over the rest of the Bering
will allow fog to persist and slowly move east during the same
period.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The long range pattern will continue the progressive movement of
the upper level systems traversing Alaska into the weekend,
followed by a slowing of the pattern to start off the upcoming
work week. A high amplitude ridge will build over much of the
Bering Saturday. By the weekend, the upper low over the Gulf will
stall out there as it runs into the semi-permanent upper level
ridge over the Canadian Rockies, which in turn will halt the
eastward movement of the Bering ridge. For Southcentral, this
pattern evolution will favor one with convection and precipitation
potential on most days, especially on Saturday as the low passes
by. This potential will also persist through early next week for
coastal locations along the Gulf and Kodiak Island. The driest
weather throughout the Saturday through Tuesday time frame will be
towards the Alaska Range. For the Southwest Mainland, dry and warm
conditions are expected as the upper ridge builds in through
Tuesday. Over the Bering, the persistent upper ridge will promote
an environment favorable to the development of widespread fog and
low stratus through the weekend. The next organized weather
system will enter the western Bering late Sunday into Monday
morning, bringing unsettled weather back to the area. It will
move through the Central Bering by Tuesday.

Ample daytime heating over interior Alaska along with the
movement of the next upper level trough over Eastern Russia will
help push the northern portion of the Bering ridge over mainland
Alaska next week. The southern portion of the ridge will remain
stuck west of the stalled out upper low over the Gulf, effectively
making the ridge positively tilted. Beyond that, the models are
now trying to keep the cut-off upper low rotating around the gulf
through the middle of next week, which seems to phase with a
disturbance in the polar jet. There is still some disagreement
between the models regarding the finer details and evolution of
this feature, which has resulted in lower forecast confidence
for the middle of next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...Red Flag Warning...Zone 141.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ELN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...TP