Small Craft Advisory 503, NWS Anchorage, AK

404 
FZAK51 PAFC 200006 CCA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
406 PM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016

CORRECTED HEADLINE ZONE 119

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-201215-
406 PM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
GULF TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST THROUGH MON NIGHT...THEN DISSIPATES.


$$

PKZ119-201215-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
406 PM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
NEAR THE COAST...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT EXCEPT E 20 KT ALONG THE COAST. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ120-201215-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
406 PM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 10 KT NEAR THE COAST. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-201215-
RESURRECTION BAY-
406 PM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE EARLY EVENING. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-201215-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
406 PM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE EVENING. 
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-201215-
PORT VALDEZ-
406 PM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-201215-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
406 PM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-201215-
VALDEZ ARM-
406 PM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SE WIND 25 KT NEAR THE SOUND IN THE EARLY EVENING. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-201215-
PASSAGE CANAL-
406 PM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE EVENING. 
GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTER THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT DURING THE EVENING. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-201215-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
406 PM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-201215-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
406 PM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ132-201215-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
406 PM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ136-201215-
CHINIAK BAY-
406 PM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-201215-
MARMOT BAY-
406 PM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-201215-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
406 PM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-201215-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
406 PM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-201215-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
406 PM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-201215-
KACHEMAK BAY-
406 PM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

924 
FZAK51 PAFC 201138
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
338 AM AKDT MON JUN 20 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-210100-
338 AM AKDT MON JUN 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST PERSISTS THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE FLOW IN
THE GULF WILL PREDOMINATELY BE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY WED

$$

PKZ119-210100-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
338 AM AKDT MON JUN 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
ALONG THE COAST WEST OF MONTAGUE ISLANDS...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
PATCHY FOG AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ120-210100-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
338 AM AKDT MON JUN 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-210100-
RESURRECTION BAY-
338 AM AKDT MON JUN 20 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. PATCHY MORNING
FOG. AFTERNOON SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS IN THE EVENING. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT BRIEFLY DIMINISHING TO 10 KT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-210100-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
338 AM AKDT MON JUN 20 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-210100-
PORT VALDEZ-
338 AM AKDT MON JUN 20 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT. RAIN AND FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-210100-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
338 AM AKDT MON JUN 20 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN AND FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-210100-
VALDEZ ARM-
338 AM AKDT MON JUN 20 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-210100-
PASSAGE CANAL-
338 AM AKDT MON JUN 20 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-210100-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
338 AM AKDT MON JUN 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-210100-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
338 AM AKDT MON JUN 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ132-210100-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
338 AM AKDT MON JUN 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ136-210100-
CHINIAK BAY-
338 AM AKDT MON JUN 20 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-210100-
MARMOT BAY-
338 AM AKDT MON JUN 20 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-210100-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
338 AM AKDT MON JUN 20 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-210100-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
338 AM AKDT MON JUN 20 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-210100-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
338 AM AKDT MON JUN 20 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-210100-
KACHEMAK BAY-
338 AM AKDT MON JUN 20 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
448 AM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The upper levels depict a double barrel closed lows over the
Southwest Alaska, and the Bering Sea. One low is positioned over
the Y-K Delta region, and the other low is just south of Saint
Matthew Island. The associated trough with the Y-K Delta low
extends southeast through the Bristol Bay into the Eastern
Aleutians. While, the second low has a trough extending westward
into the western Bering Sea. At the surface the aforementioned
synoptic features reflect a 992 mb near Kipnuk this morning. The
Scatterometer Wind Imagery is showing small craft winds on the
backside of this low pressure system. The satellite imagery is
depicting the associated front moving through the Bristol Bay
interior, and accompanied by a large swath of moisture crossing
into the southwestern Gulf, and the Anchorage bowl. The second
low is shown as a 995 mb low in the northern Bering this morning.
The rest of the Bering/Aleutian Chain has predominantly westerly
flow. The jet streak remains westerly with a 90 knot jet streak
over the lower Eastern Bering, before it transitions to a
southerly 80 knot jet streak through the Lower Kuskokwim Valley.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The models remain in decent agreement as the next North Pacific
Low approaches the Western Aleutians by Tuesday. While, the
Southcentral region has the ridge of high pressure along the
northern Gulf weaken and a weak low just north of Kodiak Island.
By Monday the ridge moves eastward, and the low pressure moves to
the northern Gulf before moving near the Dixon Entrance by
Tuesday. This will result in a weak gradient over the Southcentral
Alaska region. The Nam/Ecmwf/Canadian were the preferred models.
The forecast confidence remains average going into this upcoming
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An upper level disturbance and the associated front, currently in
the western Gulf and Cook Inlet region, will push east. Rain will
spread over much of Southcentral Alaska for today. Strong
downslope and gap winds will continue for most areas, especially
Turnagain Arm, the Knik River, and Copper River. For most inland
areas, steady rain will taper off by this afternoon and evening.
The exception being along the Alaska Range where upslope flow
keeps showers ongoing and along the North Gulf coast, where steady
rain will continue. Spotty rain and showers will continue through
Monday as the upper system lingers overhead providing some
instability, mostly in higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The rather strong surface low is now moving inland across the
Kuskokwim Delta this morning. It will continue to move north
today, with a switch to a more onshore flow pattern with winds
becoming more west to southwest by the afternoon. Rain and showers
will continue to be rather widespread, but intensity will diminish
as the surface low moves north. Monday, the upper trough will
begin to move east, with rain and showers slowly diminishing by
Monday night before shortwave ridging builds in Tuesday. This will
bring warming temperatures and clearing skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A shortwave trough in the vicinity of the Pribilof Islands this
morning will move east behind the stronger low which has now
moved inland into the Kuskokwim Delta. Rain and showers associated
with it will move into Bristol Bay tonight then weaken, leaving
behind a broad area of surface high pressure over the Bering. A
North Pacific front will move into the Aleutians and southern
Bering Monday night and Tuesday, spreading rain and increasing
easterly winds over this area.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Models remain in good agreement through Tue, and the EC was used
for run to run consistency. The solution brings the North Pacific
low and associated fronts across the western half of the Aleutian
Chain, builds high pressure over the Eastern Aleutians and
southwest Alaska, and moves lingering low pressure from the
northern Gulf to the Panhandle. All of this will bring rain and
showers to much of the Aleutians and Bering through Tue, and
diminishing shower activity to the mainland.

Beginning Tue night and lasting through Sat the models generally
agree that the Bering low will migrate northeast and weaken over
the eastern Bering. By Fri morning the remnant low slides across
the Akpen to Kodiak Island before drifting into the Gulf during
the weekend. This southeast trajectory will be caused by building
high pressure over the mainland. This high initially extends into
the Gulf, after the low along the coast decays Wed, but becomes
negatively tilted along the northeast Gulf coast as the Bering low
moves southeast. This portion of the forecast relied on WPC
guidance, which utilized a complex ensemble blend.

In the west widespread rain and showers will accompany the low and
fronts as they move northeast into the Bering...with drying from
the west Thu into Sat as the system exits the Bering. Southwest
Alaska will experience drying through Wed before the leading edge
of the Bering low rain arrives. Rain and showers can then be
expected through the weekend. South and east of the Alaska Ranges
will have a drying period that lasts through Thu. At that point
rain from the Bering low will arrive and spread across the area
through the weekend.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning...119 125 130.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...LIW
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...DS