Gale Warning 437, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 192345
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
345 PM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-201300-
345 PM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GULF MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
GULF TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST THROUGH MON NIGHT...THEN DISSIPATES.


$$

PKZ119-201300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
345 PM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
NEAR THE COAST...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT EXCEPT E 20 KT ALONG THE COAST. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ120-201300-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
345 PM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 10 KT NEAR THE COAST. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-201300-
RESURRECTION BAY-
345 PM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE EARLY EVENING. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-201300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
345 PM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE EVENING. 
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-201300-
PORT VALDEZ-
345 PM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-201300-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
345 PM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-201300-
VALDEZ ARM-
345 PM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SE WIND 25 KT NEAR THE SOUND IN THE EARLY EVENING. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-201300-
PASSAGE CANAL-
345 PM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE EVENING. 
GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTER THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT DURING THE EVENING. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-201300-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
345 PM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-201300-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
345 PM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ132-201300-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
345 PM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ136-201300-
CHINIAK BAY-
345 PM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-201300-
MARMOT BAY-
345 PM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-201300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
345 PM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-201300-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
345 PM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-201300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
345 PM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-201300-
KACHEMAK BAY-
345 PM AKDT SUN JUN 19 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
431 PM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
IR and WV satellite shows a long fetch of moisture riding along
the upper jet from the North Pacific to the Alaska Peninsula
through the Kuskokwim. This plume of moisture will help saturate
the air mass across the southern mainland into Sunday night. The
mid level focus is an upper level low spinning over the central
Bering. This system is pushing a front into the southwest coast,
which stretches south to the Alaska Peninsula. Across Southcentral,
the ridge that brought very warm temperatures during the last
several days, is quickly eroding with a few showers riding up the
Kenai Peninsula with deep southerly flow setting up ahead of the
advancing low. The pressure gradient is tightening between the two
surface systems with winds increasing in response, especially across
channeled terrain. The strongest winds this afternoon were noted
along the Alaska Peninsula, where the North Pacific surface low
deepened as it crossed over the eastern Aleutians to the southern
Bering.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are relatively in good agreement with handling the synoptic
pattern through Monday night. There are only minor differences in
the timing placement of the shortwaves rotating around the upper
low transversing the southwest mainland to the Gulf of Alaska, so confidence
remains higher than average. The use of the NAM was heavily used
to update Southcentral and Gulf waters, with a blended model
solution for the Southwest and Bering.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The pattern is changing and bringing the hot and dry conditions to
an end. An upper level disturbance and front entering the area
from the west will spread clouds and rain over much of
Southcentral Alaska. Rain will begin first along the north gulf
coast this evening, then the front will work west to east
overnight. Strong downslope and gap winds will continue for most
areas, especially Turnagain Arm, the Knik River, and Copper River.
For inland areas, steady rain will taper off by Sunday afternoon
and evening while continuing along the gulf coast. Spotty rain and
showers will continue through Monday as the upper system lingers
overhead.

For the technical details...a potent upper trough is approaching
from the Bering Sea. Southerly flow in the low levels is pumping
up ridging along the north gulf coast, which in turn forces air
through the gaps. Late tonight an upper level wave propagating
along the front will swing up toward the Anchorage area and be the
best chance for steady rain to cut through the downslope drying by
Sunday morning. As usual, the front shunts off to the east in the
gulf, however a lingering low/mid level circulation leave that
area under favorable dynamics and upslope flow. Steady
precipitation with the front should be over in most areas by
sunday night, though a touch of instability comes back on Monday
afternoon making for some higher elevation showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The low in the Bering is bringing rain and winds all along the
coastline and these conditions will spread further inland
overnight. However, the strongest winds will stay in the gaps
along the Aleutian Range and along the coast. As the low tracks to
the northeast through Sunday the rain and winds will continue, but
they will also start to diminish. By late Monday ridging will
start to build in from the west pushing the rain off to the east.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Weak westerly flow will dominate the majority of the Bering and
Aleutians until ridging builds in over the Central Aleutians late
Sunday. The biggest chance for rain will be for the more eastern
locations and the Pribilof Islands as a short wave pushes down
from the north tonight into Sunday. The ridge will then slowly
track east and a new system will approach the Western Aleutians
late Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Models remain in good agreement Mon night through Tue, and the EC
was used for run to run consistency. The solution brings the
North Pacific low and associated fronts across the western half
of the Aleutian chain, builds high pressure over the eastern
Aleutians and southwest Alaska, and moves lingering low pressure
from the northern Gulf to the Panhandle. All of this will bring
rain and showers to much of the Aleutians and Bering through Tue,
and diminishing shower activity to the mainland.

Beginning Tue night and lasting through Sat the models generally
agree that the Bering low will migrate northeast and weaken over
the eastern Bering. By Fri morning the remnant low slides across
the Akpen to Kodiak Island before drifting into the Gulf during
the weekend. This southeast trajectory will be caused by building
high pressure over the mainland. This high initially extends into
the Gulf, after the low along the coast decays Wed, but becomes
negatively tilted along the northeast Gulf coast as the Bering low
moves southeast. This portion of the forecast relied on WPC
guidance, which utilized a complex ensemble blend.

In the west widespread rain and showers will accompany the low and
fronts as they move northeast into the Bering...with drying from
the west Thu into Sat as the system exits the Bering. Southwest
Alaska will experience drying through Wed before the leading edge
of the Bering low rain arrives. Rain and showers can then be
expected through the weekend. South and east of the Alaska Ranges
will have a drying period that lasts through Thu. At that point
rain from the Bering low will arrive and spread across the area
through the weekend.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale Warning...119 125 130 131.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ML
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...DS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1024 PM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016

AKZ101-125-190730-
ANCHORAGE-WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANCHORAGE...EAGLE RIVER...INDIAN...
EKLUTNA...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...MOOSE PASS
1024 PM AKDT SAT JUN 18 2016

CAUTION IS ADVISED FOR TRAVELERS OF HIGH-PROFILE RECREATIONAL
VEHICLES AND MOTORHOMES ALONG THE SEWARD HIGHWAY THROUGH
TURNAGAIN ARM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AS STRONG
WINDS OF 35 TO 55 MPH WITH POSSIBLE HIGHER GUSTS WILL IMPACT THIS
CORRIDOR. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY.