Small Craft Advisory 481, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Jun 12, 2016, 2:52 PM AKDT (22:52 UTC)

Expired

Jun 13, 2016, 3:45 AM AKDT

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

659 
FZAK52 PAFC 122252
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
252 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-131145-
252 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN TO EASTERN BERING 
SEA THROUGH MON THEN PERSIST THROUGH TUE. A 1000 MB LOW 375 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL TRACK TO 115 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA TUE
AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CROSS THE ALEUTIANS MON AND
THEN INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA TUE.


$$

PKZ150-131145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
252 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ155-131145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
252 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ160-131145-
BRISTOL BAY-
252 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-131145-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
252 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ170-131145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
252 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ171-131145-
UNALASKA BAY-
252 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-131145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
252 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ173-131145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
252 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ174-131145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
252 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ175-131145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
252 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ176-131145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
252 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ177-131145-
ADAK TO KISKA-
252 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8
FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ178-131145-
KISKA TO ATTU-
252 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ179-131145-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
252 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ180-131145-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
252 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-131145-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
252 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ185-131145-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
252 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Jun 12, 9:56 AM AKDT, 4 hours 56 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
956 AM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The closed upper level low continues to move eastward, and is
reflected at the surface as a weak low positioned over the lower
southwestern Gulf this morning. While, a 1008 mb low pressure
system is approaching the Southeast Panhandle near Sitka with a
100 knot southwesterly jet streaking just south of the Dixon
Entrance. The moisture from this system is streaming northward
bringing numerous showers into the northern Gulf coastal
communities, except for some moisture spilling over the mountains
with periods of light rain filtering into the Southcentral region.
While, another weak shortwave is over the Kuskokwim Delta, and is
reflected at the surface with a weak cyclonic circulation west of
Bethel. The radar imagery is picking this feature up well, and is
depicting the cyclonic circulation associated with this low. Plus,
numerous showers over the Kuskokwim Delta coastline from Kipnuk
northward, and scattered rain showers over the Kuskokwim
Mountains. The MODIS Nighttime Microphysics satellite imagery is
picking up the low stratus along the southwest coastline from
Kipnuk eastward. This feature is being aided by the onshore flow
helping to transfer the stratus inland this morning. The Western
Aleutians have a comma cloud shield streaming from the Pacific
Ocean associated with the 1000 mb North Pacific Low located
southwest of Shemya.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Models remain in good agreement as the North Pacific Low
approaches Shemya, and as the ridge of high pressure builds into
the Bering Sea. Looks like the Southwest Alaska region will have a
nice warming trend as the high pressure builds, and begins to
extend into Southcentral Alaska area. Plus, the northwesterly
flow will result in drier conditions. The models in the Gulf keep
weak diffuse lows moving across the region keeping moisture mainly
along the coast. The forecast confidence is average as we head
into the early work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The surface flow will remain fairly weak through tonight with
surface ridging across the Bering and a trough along the eastern
Gulf. An upper level low currently centered near Kodiak drifts
slowly east across the southern gulf waters through the
afternoon. This system pinwheels easterly shortwaves across the
southern mainland and gulf bringing continued shower activity
until ridging builds in from the southwest which should diminish
rain activity by Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible late
this afternoon and tonight along the Talkeetna Mountains during
peak heating, with the focus shifting to the mountains along the
Copper River on Monday as a thermal trough extends south from the
Yukon. Offshore flow develops across the Eastern Kenai on Monday
with gusty conditions developing early Tuesday. North to westerly
flow sets up across all of Southcentral by late Tuesday with
stronger gusts across channeled terrain and gap locations along
the coastal areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A showery regime will hang around for one more day before a much
drier, and then a warmer air mass comes around on Tuesday. Today
the forecast starts out with a strong shortwave trough withing the
larger cyclonic circulation taking up most of southern Alaska. The
steady rain over the Kuskokwim Delta will continue this morning,
mainly west of Bethel before tapering off this afternoon. The rest
of the mainland will see afternoon showers and thunderstorms
associated with the cold air aloft. The best chance for thunder to
accompany showers will be in eastern portions of the Bristol Bay
zone. That system exits to the east tonight and will be replaced
with a northwesterly flow regime aloft. Monday night into Tuesday
a disturbance in this flow will bring a chance of rain to northern
areas of the mainland. High pressure builds in on Tuesday bringing
much drier and warmer conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
One front weakens over the Bering today, and another approaches.
The Eastern Aleutians will see spotty rain today as the front
overhead falls apart. Most of the Bering will see generally weak
westerly flow with some areas of fog. An east-west frontal
boundary will stretch across the north Pacific, and will spread
over the Western and Central Aleutians on Monday afternoon while
weakening. A triple point low pressure system will develop on this
front late Monday evening, affecting the Central and Eastern
Aleutians with steady moderate rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Beginning the long term period, a ridge over the Bering Sea will
be building ahead of a North Pacific low with a northerly
shortwave trough moving into the Gulf of Alaska. With the remnants
of the previous Gulf low moving southeast, this pattern will
promote strong offshore flow and rapid drying across southern
Alaska. Rapid warming will occur Tuesday with Wednesday and
Thursday looking to be the warmest days of the year thus far
across many locations as 850 hpa temperatures rise to 8 to 12C, 2
to 3 standard deviations above normal. By late Thursday into
Friday, uncertainty rises with respect the Bering low and how
quickly the front moves into southwest Alaska (and eventually
Southcentral). The ECMWF, GFS, and Canadian GDPS all differ with
respect to timing and how much phase interaction there is with the
subtropics, which impacts dramatically how quickly and how wet the
eventual front is as it moves eastward. For now, a WPC ensemble
approach was favored which features increasing trends for
precipitation and gradually moderating temps (back towards normal)
from the end of the week into the weekend.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ML
LONG TERM...JA

In the hours before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
154 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

AKZ101-111-121-125-131-135-141-145-131000-
ANCHORAGE-MATANUSKA VALLEY-WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA-
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
SOUTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-COPPER RIVER BASIN-SUSITNA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANCHORAGE...EAGLE RIVER...INDIAN...
EKLUTNA...PALMER...WASILLA...SUTTON...CHICKALOON...KENAI...
SOLDOTNA...HOMER...COOPER LANDING...WHITTIER...SEWARD...
GIRDWOOD...MOOSE PASS...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS...CORDOVA...
GLENNALLEN...EUREKA...MCCARTHY...PAXSON...SLANA...TALKEETNA...
WILLOW...CANTWELL
154 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

...HOTTEST CONDITIONS SO FAR THIS YEAR EXPECTED MIDWEEK ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...

THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES AND NORTHERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS INCREASE OFF OF THE ALASKA RANGE. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. WINDY CONDITIONS
TUESDAY AND PERHAPS WEDNESDAY MAY ALSO CREATE AN INCREASED FIRE
WEATHER THREAT AS DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP.

THOSE WITH OUTDOOR INTERESTS DURING THE TUESDAY-THURSDAY PERIOD
SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE HOTTEST CONDITIONS SO FAR THIS YEAR.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON HEAT SAFETY...PLEASE VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/HEATSAFETY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON WILDFIRE SAFETY AND PREVENTION...PLEASE
VISIT WEATHER.GOV/WILDFIRE.

FOR A DETAILED FORECAST FOR YOUR SPECIFIC LOCATION...PLEASE VISIT
AND CHECK BACK OFTEN AT WEATHER.GOV/ALASKA.

CASSELL

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2016Every small craft advisory in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.