Small Craft Advisory 479, NWS Anchorage, AK

659 
FZAK52 PAFC 122252
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
252 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-131145-
252 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN TO EASTERN BERING 
SEA THROUGH MON THEN PERSIST THROUGH TUE. A 1000 MB LOW 375 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL TRACK TO 115 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA TUE
AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CROSS THE ALEUTIANS MON AND
THEN INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA TUE.


$$

PKZ150-131145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
252 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ155-131145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
252 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ160-131145-
BRISTOL BAY-
252 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-131145-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
252 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ170-131145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
252 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ171-131145-
UNALASKA BAY-
252 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-131145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
252 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ173-131145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
252 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ174-131145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
252 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ175-131145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
252 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ176-131145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
252 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ177-131145-
ADAK TO KISKA-
252 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8
FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ178-131145-
KISKA TO ATTU-
252 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ179-131145-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
252 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ180-131145-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
252 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-131145-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
252 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ185-131145-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
252 PM AKDT SUN JUN 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
431 PM AKDT SAT JUN 11 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper level low that is centered over the Eastern Aleutian
Islands continues to dominate the weather across much of
Southcentral Alaska. A front that was supporting widespread
showers this morning across the Gulf Coast, Anchorage Bowl,
Matanuska Valley and Susitna Valley continues to move inland and
dissipate. However, an approaching upper level wave follows
quickly on its heels. This system is already supporting widespread
convection across the Kenai Peninsula, and will continue to move
northward into the evening hours. Meanwhile a separate wave has
supported widespread showers across the Kuskokwim Delta and
Bristol Bay regions today and wet conditions will persist into the
evening hours with a few lightning strikes possible along the
Kuskokwim Mountains.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in generally good agreement as the upper level low
currently centered near the Eastern Aleutians weakens slightly and
progresses into the gulf of alaska over the next few days. While
generally all models indicate a moist pattern across the region in
the short term, there is still a lot of uncertainty in the timing
of individual upper level waves. As a result there is uncertainty
in timing and intensity of precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The low near the Alaska Peninsula will track east overnight and
merge with an upper level wave that has moved into the Gulf from
the south. This will keep unstable weak flow over the area that
will result in light showers. The showers will be aided by weak
shortwaves moving through from the east. The merged broad low
over the Gulf Sunday will slowly track to the southeast through
Monday. This will change the flow to a drier north flow which will
clear out much of the shower activity allowing for higher
temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Showery conditions will persist over much of the Southwest
Mainland through the weekend, as the upper low tracks eastward
through the Alaska Peninsula tonight and into the Western Gulf
by Sunday morning. A weak upper level wave will track over the
Kuskokwim mountains and into the Kuskokwim Delta this evening,
coinciding with some areas of instability along the Kuskokwim
mountains and Alaska range. This should lead to some isolated
thunderstorms developing along the mountains during the late
afternoon, and spread westward over the areas east of Bethel
during the evening hours.

By Sunday afternoon, the upper level low will track further
eastward into the gulf, putting the southwest mainland into a
northwesterly flow pattern. Showery conditions will begin to
diminish into more scattered showers sunday, then taper off by
monday as high pressure builds in from the west. The one exception
for Sunday afternoon/evening would be numerous showers and
isolated thunderstorms developing along the Alaska and Aleutian
ranges, as northwesterly flow will allow for some upsloping along
the mountains.

Temperatures across the Southwest Mainland will remain consistent
with the aide of the ongoing onshore flow through early next week.
The potential for fog development will increase as we progress
into early next week, as onshore flow persists and high pressure
slowly builds over the area from the west through monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
A decaying surface low over the central bering will dissipate this
evening as high pressure starts to build over the bering Sunday,
decreasing much of the showery activity over the area through
Monday. A front associated with a North Pacific low will approach
the Western and Central Aleutians Monday morning, bringing gusty
winds and rain back to the area by Monday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...

Beginning the long term period Monday evening, a ridge over the
Bering Sea will be building ahead of a North Pacific low with a
northerly shortwave trough moving into the Gulf of Alaska. With
the remnants of the previous Gulf low moving southeast, this
pattern will promote strong offshore flow and rapid drying across
southern Alaska. Rapid warming will occur Tuesday with Wednesday
and Thursday looking to be the warmest days of the year thus far across
many locations as 850 hpa temperatures rise to 8 to 12C, 2 to 3
standard deviations above normal. By late Thursday into Friday,
uncertainty rises with respect the Bering low and how quickly the
front moves into southwest Alaska (and eventually Southcentral).
The ECMWF, GFS, and Canadian GDPS all differ with respect to
timing and how much phase interaction there is with the
subtropics, which impacts dramatically how quickly and how wet the
eventual front is as it moves eastward. For now, a WPC ensemble
approach was favored which features increasing trends for
precipitation and gradually moderating temps (back towards normal)
from the end of the week into the weekend.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EN
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...JA