Small Craft Advisory 475, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Jun 10, 2016, 3:15 PM AKDT (23:15 UTC)

Expired

Jun 11, 2016, 3:45 AM AKDT

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

984 
FZAK52 PAFC 102315
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
315 PM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-111145-
315 PM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 999 MB LOW 150 NM WEST OF SAINT PAUL DRIFTS TO 190 NM SOUTHWEST
OF SAINT PAUL AT 1010 MB LATE SAT NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SAT AFTERNOON
AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-111145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
315 PM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ155-111145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
315 PM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ160-111145-
BRISTOL BAY-
315 PM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ165-111145-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
315 PM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ170-111145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
315 PM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ171-111145-
UNALASKA BAY-
315 PM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-111145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
315 PM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ173-111145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
315 PM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ174-111145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
315 PM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ175-111145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
315 PM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ176-111145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
315 PM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ177-111145-
ADAK TO KISKA-
315 PM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ178-111145-
KISKA TO ATTU-
315 PM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ179-111145-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
315 PM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ180-111145-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
315 PM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ181-111145-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
315 PM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ185-111145-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
315 PM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Jun 10, 4:43 AM AKDT, 10 hours 32 minutes earlier.

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
443 AM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A broad upper level low over the central Bering Sea is beginning
to move eastward towards the mainland where it will begin to
effect the weather for much of the area into this weekend. The
remnants of am associated front that moved inland over the
southwest coast on Thursday afternoon continues to bring
widespread clouds and rain from the southwest mainland eastward
into the southern Kenai Peninsula. This front also brought
thunderstorms to the western interior late Thursday evening which
dissipated soon after midnight as the front dissipated. Ahead of
this front, the ridging that brought clear skies to much of
southcentral and the eastern interior over the past few days is
moving eastward into northwest Canada in advance of the
approaching Bering low, allowing clouds to begin to move back into
southcentral.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The main forecast challenge through this weekend continues to be
placing where moisture and rainfall throughout the south Mainland.
This will occur as the Bering low moves into the eastern
Bering/Aleutians, leaving broad southerly flow with a series weak
upper level disturbances through this weekend. As a result
forecast confidence remains generally near normal, with slightly
lower confidence in the precipitation forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A front stalled between Kodiak Island and the Kenai begins to push
slowly north tonight bringing increased chances for rain to
Southcentral through Saturday night. During the early part of
today, southerly flow advects low to mid level moisture inland
from the gulf. Meanwhile, the broad low across the Bering re-
organizes with a stronger center forming south of the Central
Aleutians this afternoon. This center tracks east overnight
sending a wave of energy ahead of it, which helps to kick the
stalled front into motion. The front moves slowly north and east
with brief gusty winds along the boundary with light rain through
late Saturday. Southerly winds across the Copper River Basin are
expected to gust for a longer duration on Saturday afternoon into
the evening as surface ridging builds back into the northeast gulf
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The weather front continues to move through the Southwest Alaska
region before exiting the AOR later today. This will bring areas
of wetting rains with the front, and showery activity behind the
front. Look for isolated thunderstorms in the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley this afternoon/evening due to diurnal heating with breaks
in the clouds, and a weak shortwave pushing through. By Saturday
afternoon another shortwave will pivot through the Bristol Bay
interior, and the Lower Kuskokwim Valley eastward into the
Kuskokwim Delta region by Saturday evening. This synoptic feature
combined with diurnal heating will be enough to kickoff a few
isolated thunderstorms through the aforementioned regions. The
storm motion on Saturday will be easterly, and will aide in moving
the isolated thunderstorms into the Kuskokwim Delta area.
Temperatures will remain steady with marine layer cloud cover, and
patchy fog accompanied by light onshore flow through Saturday. The
key will be how far the marine layer stratus moves inland, but the
best chances for more thunderstorm coverage will likely be farther
inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
We have one weak 1001 mb low positioned just west of the Pribilof
Islands, and a second low at 999 mb near Adak this morning. These
two systems will phase into one broad low pressure over the
central Bering Sea by Friday morning. Resulting in a showery
weather regime for the Bering, and the Aleutian Chain as we head
into Saturday. While, the northerly winds on the backside of this
system will remain at Small Craft Advisory levels, and will shift
more northwesterly by Saturday. While, patchy fog will mainly be
over the western Bering except for slightly thicker fog over the
northern Bering through Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The broad upper level low centered over the Alaska Peninsula,
Eastern Aleutians and much of the Bering on Saturday afternoon
will shift east over the western Gulf Sunday, the central Gulf
Sunday night and the eastern Gulf on Monday. Showery weather will
follow this cool, moderately unstable low east across southern
Alaska through the weekend. Upper level ridging will build over
the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula on Monday as the next
low approaches the western Aleutians. As the ridge amplifies, any
lingering showers will quickly end with conditions drying under
northerly flow across Southwest Alaska Sunday Night and Monday.

A trough rotating around an upper level low over the Arctic Ocean
will swing into the middle portions of mainland Alaska around the
Seward Peninsula and Norton Sound late Sunday night through Monday
morning then continue east-southeast through interior Alaska
Monday and Tuesday before exiting into the Yukon Territory and
eastern Gulf Tuesday Night and Wednesday. While most of the
precipitation and clouds associated with this shortwave should
remain north of the Alaska Range, I do see the potential for some
rather strong north to northwesterly winds in Southcentral Alaska
Tuesday and Tuesday night right behind the trough. Particularly channeled
terrain in areas like Valdez, Whittier and the Susitna Valley will bear
watching for the development of strong downsloping/mountain wave
type winds.

The upper level ridge will amplify rapidly over western
Alaska Tuesday and Tuesday night as the low in the western
Aleutian tracks east into the Bering. The ridge will shift east
further into mainland Alaska on Wednesday then weaken through the
end of the week as jet energy over the Aleutians progressively
brings systems further east.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DEK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...JR

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2016Every small craft advisory in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.