Small Craft Advisory 474, NWS Anchorage, AK

903 
FZAK52 PAFC 101155
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
355 AM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-110100-
355 AM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1000 MB LOW 80 NM NORTHWEST OF SAINT PAUL WILL MOVE TO 220 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SAINT PAUL AND WEAKEN TO 1006 MB SAT AFTERNOON...THEN
DISSIPATES LATE SAT NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS SAT AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH LATE SAT
NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ150-110100-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
355 AM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ155-110100-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
355 AM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ160-110100-
BRISTOL BAY-
355 AM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-110100-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
355 AM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ170-110100-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
355 AM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ171-110100-
UNALASKA BAY-
355 AM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-110100-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
355 AM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ173-110100-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
355 AM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ174-110100-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
355 AM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ175-110100-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
355 AM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ176-110100-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
355 AM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ177-110100-
ADAK TO KISKA-
355 AM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ178-110100-
KISKA TO ATTU-
355 AM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT N 15 KT FROM SHEMYA W. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT NW 15 KT ON THE PACIFIC SIDE.
SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT W 15 KT FROM SHEMYA W. SEAS 8 FT.
PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ179-110100-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
355 AM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ180-110100-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
355 AM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ181-110100-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
355 AM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ185-110100-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
355 AM AKDT FRI JUN 10 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT SE 15 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. E OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
440 PM AKDT THU JUN 9 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There is a negatively tilted upper high over most of southern
alaska. There is a large upper level low centered just south of
the Aleutians near 180 degrees longitude. A triple point low
associated with this upper low is centered just east of the
Pribilofs, with a front stretching from the low southeast through
the eastern Alaska Peninsula and on into the northern Pacific.
Precipitation from this front is just starting to move into inland
portions of southwest Alaska. There is a deep arctic low over
northern Alaska with an associated weak front along the Alaska
Range. Fairly robust onshore winds are occurring over south
central Alaska due to a surface ridge over the Gulf of Alaska
combined with the front near the Alaska Range.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in good agreement on the large scale and
synoptic features through the short term portion of the forecast
(Saturday afternoon). However, there are differences in how they
handle moisture and especially precipitation both with and behind
the front as it moves into Southcentral Alaska. Therefore
forecast confidence is near normal today.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

An upper level ridge continues to support copious sunshine and
generally warm temperatures across much of the southcentral
mainland. An inland thermal trough has developed in the Copper
River Basin this afternoon, which has helped to support gusty
winds in the Copper River Basin, and robust local sea breezes
elsewhere. This has kept temperatures slightly cooler in coastal
areas. Diurnal convection has been developing along the Alaska
Range and Talkeetna Range with a few lightning strikes already
occurring. While dry, clear weather will continue through Friday
morning, an approaching frontal system will reach the southcentral
mainland by Friday night.

While much of the support for this system will fall apart as it
pushes inland, there will be enough associated moisture to bring
showers to much of southcentral. There is currently a lot of
uncertainty in how much rain will fall across the region, but
generally the most widespread rain is expected Saturday morning
through Saturday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A Red Flag Warning continues through this evening, with warm
temperatures and gusty winds already being observed this afternoon
in the Copper River Basin. While some gusty winds are anticipated
for tomorrow afternoon, an approaching front will bring more
widespread cloud cover and cooler temperatures. By Saturday
morning, much more moist and cloudy conditions will return to
southcentral.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

Most of the region will remain unsettled through Saturday as a
weather front with rain moves north across the area. Scattered to
numerous shower activity will move inland as the upper level low
significantly lags the front. Isolated thunderstorms will be
possible later this afternoon and early evening across
northeastern parts of the Kuskokwim Valley, and then again
Saturday afternoon and evening mainly along the higher elevations,
especially toward the Kilbuck Range. Daytime temperatures will be
moderated with the increased cloud cover and continued onshore
flow through at least Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

A slow-moving double-barreled upper low dominates the Bering
region, with the surface features pivoting across the region
underneath the upper low as it moves east. A showery regime will
thus encompass the region from the central Bering and Central
Aleutians east through Saturday, while the Western Aleutians will
be largely devoid of precipitation after tonight. Winds will
continue to remain at or near Small Craft Advisory levels,
particularly on the western side of the front across the central
and western Bering.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The broad upper level low centered over the Alaska Peninsula,
Eastern Aleutians and much of the Bering on Saturday afternoon
will shift east over the western Gulf Sunday, the central Gulf
Sunday night and the eastern Gulf on Monday. Showery weather will
follow this cool, moderately unstable low east across southern
Alaska through the weekend. Upper level ridging will build over
the eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula on Monday as the next
low approaches the western Aleutians. As the ridge amplifies, any
lingering showers will quickly end with conditions drying under
northerly flow across Southwest Alaska Sunday Night and Monday.

A trough rotating around an upper level low over the Arctic Ocean
will swing into the middle portions of mainland Alaska around the
Seward Peninsula and Norton Sound late Sunday night through Monday
morning then continue east-southeast through interior Alaska
Monday and Tuesday before exiting into the Yukon Territory and
eastern Gulf Tuesday Night and Wednesday. While most of the
precipitation and clouds associated with this shortwave should
remain north of the Alaska Range, there is potential for some
rather strong north to northwesterly winds in Southcentral Alaska
Tuesday and Tuesday night right behind the trough. Channeled
terrain in areas like Valdez, Whittier and the Susitna Valley will
bear watching for the development of strong downsloping/mountain
wave type winds.

The upper level ridge will amplify rapidly over western
Alaska Tuesday and Tuesday night as the low in the western
Aleutian tracks east into the Bering. The ridge will shift east
further into mainland Alaska on Wednesday then weaken through the
end of the week as jet energy over the Aleutians progressively
brings systems further east.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...Red Flag Warning Zone 141.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...bl
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...en
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...cc
LONG TERM...jr