Small Craft Advisory 459, NWS Anchorage, AK

156 
FZAK52 PAFC 042300
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
300 PM AKDT SAT JUN 4 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-051145-
300 PM AKDT SAT JUN 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA STALLS AND WEAKENS
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN BERING TONIGHT...THEN DISSIPATES SUN NIGHT.
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MON.

$$

PKZ150-051145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
300 PM AKDT SAT JUN 4 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ155-051145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
300 PM AKDT SAT JUN 4 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ160-051145-
BRISTOL BAY-
300 PM AKDT SAT JUN 4 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ165-051145-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
300 PM AKDT SAT JUN 4 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ170-051145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
300 PM AKDT SAT JUN 4 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ171-051145-
UNALASKA BAY-
300 PM AKDT SAT JUN 4 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT SUBSIDING.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-051145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
300 PM AKDT SAT JUN 4 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ173-051145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
300 PM AKDT SAT JUN 4 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ174-051145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
300 PM AKDT SAT JUN 4 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ175-051145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
300 PM AKDT SAT JUN 4 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ176-051145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
300 PM AKDT SAT JUN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ177-051145-
ADAK TO KISKA-
300 PM AKDT SAT JUN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ178-051145-
KISKA TO ATTU-
300 PM AKDT SAT JUN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ179-051145-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
300 PM AKDT SAT JUN 4 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ180-051145-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
300 PM AKDT SAT JUN 4 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ181-051145-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
300 PM AKDT SAT JUN 4 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. AREAS OF FOG IN
THE MORNING.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ185-051145-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
300 PM AKDT SAT JUN 4 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
437 PM AKDT FRI JUN 3 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper level low northeast of Barrow continues to be the main
weather driver across the state of Alaska. An associated upper
level wave stretches from this low towards the Southwest
mainland. Although it continues to stretch and weaken, the
vorticity maximum is still strong enough to support another round
of convection across the Southwest mainland. Lightening strikes
have already occurred in the western mountains of Kuskokwim Valley
and the Ahklun Mountains of Bristol Bay. Meanwhile, the
Southcentral remains underneath a col, with minimal diurnal
convection occurring mainly along the mountains this afternoon.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in good general agreement over the short term, with
the upper level trough and low remaining relatively stagnant.
However, models still disagree on the intensity and manifestation
of the associated vorticity maximum, which results in different
convective initiation scenarios. As a result, the timing and
coverage of convection remains somewhat uncertain through the
short term.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

A disturbance over the western Gulf will begin moving
northwestward towards the Kenai Peninsula and Southcentral Alaska
tonight into Saturday. Thus expect increased cloud cover over the
area in general, particularly along the Gulf and Coastal locations.
Precipitation will ramp up in association with this system along
all northern Gulf Coast locales. Meanwhile further inland, the
cloud cover should reduce the expected coverage of isolated
thunderstorms due to the loss of surface based instability. The
southeasterly flow, between the low over the western Gulf and
building high pressure moving out of the Panhandle, will be
enhanced by the tightening pressure gradient between these two
features. This raises the potential for gusty gap wind flows
through the typical southeast to northwest oriented gaps such as
along the Copper River Basin, Turnagain Arm, and the Knik River
Valley. Further, a barrier jet is expected to re-emerge along the
north Gulf Coast and Prince William Sound as the winds funnel
between the coastal Chugach Mountains and the low over the
western Gulf. Fortunately, this feature will be a quick- moving
one, so the barrier jet winds should only persist for a period of
about 12 hours.

On Sunday, as a weak low pressure system moves northward across
the eastern Gulf, relative high pressure will build over the
central Gulf, while weak surface troughing persists along the
western Gulf coast. As a result, a period of gusty southwesterly
winds are expected to develop along the Cook Inlet during the late
afternoon and evening hours, funneling up Kachemak Bay as well
during that time. The winds should help to keep a feed of
moisture in place from off the Gulf through the Cook Inlet region.
This will result in cooler daytime highs with more cloud cover,
which in turn will limit thunderstorms to the Alaska Range north
of the Susitna Valley Sunday afternoon as a strong trough digs
southward towards that area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Showers and thunderstorms will persist over the southwest this
evening as the thermal trough remains draped over the area. Most
of these thunderstorms should occur over the Kuskokwim Valley and
northwestern Bristol Bay where the strongest instability will
exist. There is an outside chance that the thunderstorms will
continue through the overnight period as some of the high-
resolution models are indicating, however with little upper level
dynamics this was left out of the forecast. The thermal trough
will then shift slightly to the west and weaken as a weak upper
level trough develops over the eastern Bering on Saturday. This
will allow for the possibility of thunder activity as far west as
the Bethel area by the evening, while the majority of the
thunderstorms should remain off to the east over the Kuskokwim
Valley. Starting Sunday, a slightly cooler airmass will move in as
a trough dives southward from the interior, however with good
daytime heating ahead of it there should still be enough
instability to fire off another round of thunderstorms over the
interior southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
The main story over the Bering will be centered around the
weakening gale force front moving through the western Aleutians.
With persistent digging over the central Bering however, this
front will struggle to reach as far east as Adak, leaving the rest
of the region under relatively quiet weather with only a chance of
patchy fog and stratus.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
By Sunday there will be an active stream of Pacific jet energy
surging east toward the Panhandle of Alaska with continued upper
level troughing over northern Alaska. The mainland pattern will
begin to change as the arctic trough over northern Alaska digs
south into southwest Alaska. This will result in increasing
chances for rain across interior southwest Alaska and across parts
of the Susitna Valley. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will
remain a threat across the aforementioned area, and the remainder
of Southcentral Alaska as that region remains under the influence
of weaker upper level features. This general pattern will play
itself out into midweek, with stout ridging over Eastern Siberia
keeping a drier north to east flow over a majority of the Bering
Sea while rain and showers remain over inland southern Alaska.

Midweek and beyond, the numerical global model guidance are all
strongly in agreement with the development of another large North
Pacific low developing over the Western Aleutians then moving east
into the eastern Bering. This will spread more clouds and moisture
into southern Alaska, with rain along the coast and inland
showers. This will keep temperatures seasonable with no major heat
waves or dry periods expected through next weekend.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale warning 178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EN
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JW
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...PD/JA